(Photo: Caden Leonard/WCSN)
TEMPE – Regression toward the mean is a statistical phenomenon in which an unusually extreme initial measurement or event is likely to be followed by a subsequent measurement that is closer to the average.
The saying is most often associated with or attributed to math problems or other examples of extreme outlier anomaly statistics.
While not used as often, the phrase often rings true in sports.
Whether one is discussing a typically good football kicker who is having a poor season out of nowhere or a traditionally poor baseball player who is going through a historical hot streak, there are many examples to be found of positive or negative regression in the realm of athletics.
This phrase couldn’t be more evident in Monday night’s season opener for Arizona State men’s basketball.
Coming off the heels of an electric showing from deep in an exhibition against New Mexico, where the team shot 39% from beyond the arc on 41 attempts, many thought the Sun Devils may have found an identity around the arc under new head coach Randy Bennett.
Then the first half of Monday night’s game unfolded, leaving many fans with a sour taste in their mouths.
ASU shot a bewildering 21.4% from long range in the first frame; meanwhile, its opponent, East Tennessee State, was finding nothing but the bottom of the net, drilling 46.2% of its 3-pointers. Maintaining just a six-point lead at the half, many Sun Devils fans began to question what they saw little over a week ago against the Lobos.
Then the positive regression began to kick in.
After limping through the first half without shooting well from beyond the arc, ASU began to revert to expectations, shooting 41.7% from three, reminding the crowd of the team displayed in Albuquerque. The Sun Devils’ defensive intensity also increased, chasing the Buccaneers off the three-point line, leading the team to a woeful four threes attempted after halftime.
Second-year point guard Joel Foxwell attributed much of the turnaround to getting the Sun Devils ‘ newly acquired star fourth-year forward Paulius Murauskas more involved in the offensive effort.
“I was talking to our offensive coach about it,” Foxwell said. “And they were really hard showing with the five. So we were trying to get Paulius into on ball screens because they didn’t really know what to do with him. If they should come hard and show, they’ll leave him open for three balls. I think just being able to free him up, and then you know he’s going to go and make plays for others.
“At the end of the day, you still got to put the ball in the hoop, and we did a better job with that.”
Despite the shooting struggles of the first half, ASU (1-0) overcame a feisty test from East Tennessee State (0-1), winning 75-65 on Monday in front of a rowdy home crowd at Desert Financial Arena eager to welcome coach Bennett home. Foxwell added that the Sun Devils were able to calm down after an antsy first half, which led them to find a rhythm from behind the line.
“I think the spacing we had in the second half at times was much better than in the first half,” Foxwell said, “and I felt like we weren’t as sped up.”
While the Australian-born point guard gave Murauskas plenty of credit for the halftime shooting renaissance, the veteran forward struggled personally to get it going from deep and was a far cry from the exhibition performance against New Mexico. In the exhibition matchup against the Lobos, Murauskas tallied 31 points and nine rebounds while hitting seven of 10 3-pointers.
Seeing as Murauskas has only attempted 10 threes in a game once in his career prior to that exhibition, it was already unlikely that the forward would shoot or hit at that volume often; however, Monday night the forward’s game completely shifted, with him putting up five threes and not hitting any of them.
Instead, the Lithuanian forward turned to other aspects of the game to get himself going, drawing fouls and getting to the line a game-high 12 times.
Murauskas also contributed nine rebounds in the effort, something that he feels needs to be done when his shot is not falling.
“Just trying to be aggressive,” Murauskas said. “You know, crash the boards, be physical, especially when the three-ball is not falling.”
Regardless of the improved effort in the second half, Murauskas was not proud of his five turnovers, which often gave life to a floundering Buccaneers offense.
“I don’t think I did a good job on that,” Murauskas said. “Five turnovers is too much on that defense, and we had 13. We want to keep it less than 10. We need to get there, and we didn’t play great in defense and rebounding. We need to use these practice days to get better till Friday.”
While Monday represented an awkward and sometimes ugly game for the first under Bennett’s tenure as coach, Murauskas left knowing the team needed to perform better but proud of the season-opening victory.
“Like I said, we need to like play better,” Murauskas said. “I don’t think we played great tonight, and we’re not satisfied with it. But it’s good that we grabbed the win. That’s the most important thing.”
With the first game shooting slump behind them, Foxwell and the Sun Devils are looking to quiet the noise and play their own respective games ahead of Friday night’s clash with Northern Colorado.
“Once you go out there, it’s just another basketball game. You just go out there and hoop,” Foxwell said.
