(Photo by Travis Whittaker/ WCSN)
With the tournament getting started today, WCSN gathered members of the women’s basketball coverage team to break down all things NCAA tournament heading into this weekend.
1. What was your first thought when you saw the bracket was leaked early and Arizona State was headed to Coral Gables?
Gareth Kwok:
Well first off, I was a little bit bummed that the bracket was leaked early because I think it did ruin the suspense and anticipation of where ASU would be playing. However, upon learning that the Devils will be playing UCF and potentially Miami in the second round, I think ASU has a good chance of making the Sweet 16. UCF is a team that did well in its conference but hasn’t played many tough opponents like ASU, and a second-round matchup between Miami is also favorable considering the Hurricanes are arguably the weakest of the No. 4 seeds.
Jack Johnson:
I thought it was really funny and I’m actually surprised this kind of stuff doesn’t happen more often in an age where information leaks fly around like goldfish in an elementary school food fight. Nevertheless, I like the matchup against UCF. Yes, the Knights were the No. 2 seed in the American Conference tournament, but they struggle with teams that outweigh them in terms of depth and talent. ASU has the advantage in both categories, so the only way I see an upset being pulled off is if the Devils beat themselves. I like what Gareth said about Miami as well, I thought they were a little overseeded, earning their slot by virtue of playing in a tough conference as opposed to merit. ASU has played enough top teams to not shy away from this one, especially after taking several top teams down to the wire this year.
Gabe Swartz:
The selection committee seemed to have rewarded the Sun Devils for challenging themselves in non-conference play, yet I’m sure Charli Turner Thorne is kicking herself knowing just one win against the likes of Baylor, Louisville, Oregon or Stanford might’ve been the difference between hosting this first weekend at Wells Fargo Arena and taking a cross-country flight. Aside from that flight to a pod with three teams within driving distance of Miami, I thought the Sun Devils got a manageable draw. With the stellar defense that Arizona State plays—they ranked first in the Pac-12 in points per game allowed—the Sun Devils defense should help them shutdown the Knights, and (likely) the Hurricanes to reach the Sweet 16.
Gabrielle Ducharme:
I was shocked when the bracket was released early and thought it was an unfortunate day for someone at ESPN. As far as the Sun Devils go, I thought ASU had clearly earned the No. 5 seed, but that they were also under ranked. Considering the strength of the Pac-12, a conference, which has six teams total in the NCAA Tournament, I thought they would receive a Top 4 seed.
2. Who is the most important player for the Sun Devils to make a deep tournament run?
Kwok: I still think senior forward Kianna Ibis is ASU’s most important player this tournament. This is her last tournament run as a Sun Devil and I don’t think it can be emphasized enough how much this team will need her to play well. She has had plenty of good games in conference play but in the Pac-12 Tournament, she didn’t quite find a groove. In order for the Devils to make a deep run, she will really need to find her stroke on offense and the team will find momentum and feed off her.
Johnson:
I know that Ibis is the popular answer, but for me this team relies on floor general and junior guard Reili Richardson to orchestrate the offensive attack. When she is able to drive to the basket and create for teammates, it relieves pressure off of Ibis and senior guard Courtney Ekmark to force ill-advised shots. She was uncharacteristically shaky in the Pac-12 tournament, but she has the patience it takes to perform when it counts (Utah, anyone?) that should help the Devils when they inevitably run into those last-minute scrambles that define this month of college basketball.
Swartz:
Ibis and Richardson will be the popular answers but I’m going to say the combination of junior guard Robbi Ryan and Ekmark will determine whether a deep tournament run is in the cards for the Sun Devils. We’ve seen the up-and-down nature of their shooting this season, but it will be important for one of them to shoot the ball well from deep each game. When both guards struggle shooting the ball, it makes everything harder for Ibis to get going.
Ducharme:
I think the most important players are Kianna Ibis and Reili Richardson, two of the main players who fuel the Sun Devil’s offensive attack. Ibis has been the centerpiece for this Arizona State team for the last four years, and as the senior starting power forward, she will be a huge key to her team’s offensive attack. She is averaging 13 points and 5.2 rebounds per game this season. Starting point guard Reili Richardson will also be a very important key for the Sun Devils. Richardson is the starting point guard who runs the show for the Sun Devils. After committing a season high five turnovers in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal, Richardson must play more consistently if ASU wants to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Which Pac-12 squad will advance the deepest in the bracket?
Kwok: I know Stanford may have won the Pac-12 Tournament but I still think Oregon has the best chance out of any Pac-12 team to go deep. I think the Ducks have legitimate Final Four potential and when you have the projected WNBA No. 1 overall pick in Sabrina Ionescu, that’s all you need. Ever since she’s been a Duck, she’s led the team to back-to-back Elite Eight appearances and I think that will continue again this year but with a better shot of reaching the Final Four. Stanford will make the Elite Eight as well, but Notre Dame will prevent them from reaching the Final Four.
Johnson:
Stanford is my pick. I know they are on a crash course with Notre Dame on their side of the bracket, but they took down the No. 1 overall seed in Baylor earlier this year, so they can run with the lead pack. Also, I’ve seen a much different Stanford team in recent weeks after they got run out of town in a 88-48 loss against Oregon. To go from losing by 40 points at the hands of the Ducks to defeating the exact same team one month later in the Pac-12 championship game speaks to the growth of the Cardinal in the final third of the season. I would also like to mention that Alanna Smith is the most dominant player I watched the Devils play this season. Stopping her will be tough.
Swartz:
While I believe UCLA will reach the Sweet 16, and Stanford will reach the Elite Eight, I’m going to say Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks will remain dancing the longest of any team from the Conference of Champions. Not only are the Ducks talented—junior guard Sabrina Ionescu was the Pac-12 Player of the Year, ESPNW first-team All-American and a Naismith Trophy semifinalist—but they are also in the Portland Region, meaning the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight will be played right in their backyard. With a great fanbase and a great team, Oregon reaches the national championship game, and comes up just short of a national title.
Ducharme:
I think the Oregon Ducks will advance the deepest in the bracket. The Ducks are the Pac-12 regular season champions and their star player, Sabrina Ionescu, is slated to be the top pick in the 2019 WNBA Draft. The crazy part, Ionescu is only a junior. Oregon is the second seed in the Portland region, and I think they could make it all the way to the Final Four in Tampa Bay. Oregon is battle tested, having lost in the Elite Eight in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, and the Big Dance is a time when stars become legends. Ionescu is one of the best players in college basketball, and she is ready to cement her legacy in all of the madness that is the month of March.
4. ASU or otherwise, what are you most excited to see in this tournament?
Kwok: I’m most excited to see obviously how far ASU goes in this tournament. This is a team that is searching for a big time win and assuming they make it to the Sweet 16 and face Mississippi State, that would be a great chance to see them pull off the upset, something they were unable to do against Baylor, Louisville, Oregon and Stanford. I’m eager to see the adjustments the team makes and what changes they make, if any. There are no more games for them to lose focus or discipline or else it will result in elimination. If anything, I’m hoping to see ASU’s best basketball of the season.
Johnson:
For ASU I want to see high-energy offense. Like I have said all year long, defense travels, and the Devils have a defense capable of locking down great teams. But sometimes, the offense goes M.I.A., like the horrible road trip to the Bay Area late in the season. A lot of the players talked about being sluggish on the court in some of those losses, and not being active in their ball-screen offense. This is the NCAA tournament, there really is not an excuse for lacking energy, so let’s see if the Devils play with the spark that almost took down Baylor and Louisville.
Outside of the Devils, I am excited to see how this tournament pans out. For the first time in years, there is no clear-cut favorite to win it all. UConn is not the same UConn we have seen in years past and all four 1 seeds have shown flaws at times throughout the season. This could be the year we get some major upsets in the tourney.
Swartz:
In a year where UConn failed to earn a No. 1 seed for the first time in over a decade, I’m interested to see a tournament that could be absent the most dominant team in recent women’s basketball history. How does Sabrina Ionescu vs. Arike Ogunbowale sound to you? I mentioned it earlier, but I think the Oregon Ducks will reach the national championship game. There, No. 1 Notre Dame will end the Ducks run and repeat as national champions behind the 2018 Final Four Most Outstanding Player, Ogunbowale who helps the Fighting Irish cut down the nets for the second straight year.
Ducharme:
I am most excited to see how far UConn goes. For the first time in several years, they are not a No. 1 seed, and their best player, Katie Lou Samuelson, has been banged up throughout conference tournament play. She is now in her senior season, and she has not won a national title since she was teammates with UConn great, Breanna Stewart. Samuelson is now the centerpiece this UConn team and has a lot to prove during the tournament. I am excited to see how well she does during the Big Dance. In terms of ASU, I am excited to see how Ekmark and Ibis play in their last NCAA Tournament. They have both had such different journeys on the court, it will be exciting to see how they lead the Sun Devils in the tournament.
5. How far will the Sun Devils advance?
Kwok: I think ASU will reach the Sweet 16 and will fall to No. 1 Mississippi State. I just think ASU has not been able to find those big statement wins throughout the season and this is a game that would surely be a statement win if they can knock off the Bulldogs. Don’t get me wrong, they’ll definitely put up a fight, but they’ve had trouble with bigs and another WNBA first-round prospect in 6-foot-7 Teira McCowan is no exception for Mississippi State. I think she will be too much on ASU, who had trouble against Baylor’s bigs in November as well.
Johnson:
ASU will finally break out of their second round bubble and burst into the Sweet 16, but that is as far as they will go. ASU just has not been consistent enough for all 40 minutes to tame top competition. They’ll have impressive stretches, but eventually, their flame dies and the better team establishes control. We saw it against Baylor, Louisville, Stanford and Oregon. All four games could have gone the way of ASU if they had been able to make a key shot here or a clutch stop there, but time after time, it was the team going against the maroon and gold getting it done. But I will say this in support of the team, I just have this feeling that if the Devils met the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the Sweet 16, they may be able to pull off the upset solely off the belief the team holds that they are kind of owed one.
Swartz:
Defense travels and I think the Sun Devils will too. I think Arizona State will get out of Coral Gables with two wins, and head to Portland for the Sweet 16. There, I can foresee a matchup with No. 1 Mississippi State which could mirror the Devils early-season matchup against Baylor. The Bulldogs Teaira McCowan’s size gives ASU trouble just as Baylor’s Kalani Brown did in November, and barring an outstanding outside shooting performance from the Sun Devils, I think ASU’s run ends in the Sweet 16.
Ducharme:
I think the Sun Devils will advance to the Sweet 16 and then they will lose to top seed Mississippi State. The team’s run will come to an end once they begin playing the best teams in the nation in the biggest moment of the season. The Sun Devils can hang with some of the top teams in the nation, but I don’t think they will be able to hang with Mississippi State.
Outlook
Arizona State faces No. 12 UCF in Coral Gables Florida on Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. MST.
