(Photo: Nicholas Badders/WCSN)
With Thanksgiving passed and college football’s regular season officially over, two of the holiday’s great traditions are underway.
The making of wish lists and the churning of the college football coaching carousel.
Arizona State athletic director Ray Anderson is getting to blend those two activities this winter as he searches for a new head coach for his football team days after firing Todd Graham.
Graham was let go at 8 a.m. on Sunday, but by noon, reports had already surfaced indicating ex-Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is the leading man to take over in Tempe.
On Sunday afternoon, Anderson took to the podium to address Graham’s firing and lay out what he is looking for in potential candidates. Though the AD said no hiring was imminent, he gave the impression that he has been calculating this decision for a long time.
Now that Anderson has to make a decision on the most important coaching position in his athletic department, let’s take a look at how well Sumlin fits the bill and who else might be on ASU’s radar.
While explaining his reasoning for firing the third-winningest coach in school history, Anderson repeatedly used the word “average” when describing Graham’s tenure. From single-digit-wins records to mediocre-caliber-bowl berths, Anderson was underwhelmed by what Graham produced in more than a few ways, especially over the past three years.
Maybe the most crucial area of Graham’s underperformance was in recruiting.
“We have to get to the point where we are recruiting 4- and 5-star football players who want to come and play here,” Anderson said on Sunday. “…That’s where we need to make up ground because we don’t have that here now.”
Since 2012 (Graham’s first recruiting class at ASU), the average combined national recruiting class rank of all Pac-12 schools is No. 34 in the country, based off Rivals.com recruiting rankings. ASU’s six recruiting classes under Graham finished with an average national ranking of 32.5, about middle of the pack when compared to his conference counterparts.
Sumlin’s reign at Texas A&M was a different, and more impressive, story. During his six years in East Texas (he was also hired in 2012), the Aggies average national class ranking was 11.5 – almost eight spots higher than the average SEC class ranking of 19.
Even accounting for the difference of talent between West Coast recruits and Southeast prospects, Sumlin outperformed his conference peers far more than Graham did.
In Anderson’s judgement, ASU was average in the recruiting world. Sumlin’s Texas A&M program was not.
The attraction of better talent also helped Sumlin send more of his players to pros. While at A&M, seven of his players were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and 18 were drafted overall. ASU had just one and 10 respectively during that time frame.
Another shortcoming not overlooked by Anderson. Another box Sumlin seems to check.
“You cannot have a year where none of our [non-specialists] players get drafted into the NFL and only one player, a kicker, is [in] the combine,” Anderson said, referencing how Zane Gonzalez was the only ASU player to have his name called in last April’s draft; there was a Texas A&M player taken in each of the first five rounds.
But, Sumlin’s resume doesn’t meet all of Anderson’s stated requirements.
Coaching turnover has been an issue for Sumlin while at A&M. In his six seasons, he has had three different offensive coordinators and two different defensive coordinators. It’s an unstable precedent Anderson wants to avoid.
“At the end of the day the head coach is responsible for developing and then retaining his coaches so you can have continuity,” Anderson said.
Sumlin also didn’t win that many games in the SEC, hence his firing from Texas A&M. While success is never easy when sharing a division with the likes of Nick Saban and Les Miles, Sumlin eclipsed the 10-win mark just once in College Station (his debut season in 2012). His victory total actually suffered a steady decline during his tenure, dropping to 9 in 2013, then 8 in each year between 2014-16 before winning a tenure-low 7 games this past campaign.
He never qualified for a BCS or New Year’s Six bowl either.
Anderson will want far tangible success if he indeed makes a move for Sumlin.
“We have been average. 7-5 and second place in a riddled Pac-12 South is not our aspiration,” Anderson said. “We deserve more. We have the capacity and the university and the community that deserves more and I very frankly should demand more.”
When it comes to a relatively thin coaching market though, Sumlin might be in the best position to appease those lofty demands.
In the days since Graham’s firing, more than a dozen names have been linked with ASU’s coaching vacancy.
Everyone from Les Miles to Mack Brown have been speculated as possible hires for Anderson to make. But, there are only a handful of names that would satisfy the wishes Anderson laid out on Sunday.
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