(Photo: Madison Sorenson/ WCSN)
In college football, few stats swing momentum like turnover margin. More often than not, the team that wins the takeaway battle wins the game. Arizona State football exemplifies that notion, boasting a 12–0 record since 2024 when winning the turnover battle.
This doesn’t just apply to ASU. College football writer Zach Barnett analyzed 1,788 games from 2021–2022 and found that teams winning the turnover battle triumphed nearly 75 percent of the time. In 2024, another stat told a similar story — among the top 20 teams in turnover margin per game, 13 posted double-digit wins, and five reached the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Sun Devils, who finished sixth in that metric, did both.
After trailing in turnover margin 1–3 over the first two weeks, ASU has bounced back with a 5–0 edge over the last two — including three takeaways in last Saturday’s win over Baylor. Four of those five turnovers were forced by the Sun Devil secondary. That group will be key for ASU (3–1, 1–0 Big 12) once again on Friday against No. 24 TCU (3–0, 0–0 Big 12), a team that sits 10th nationally in turnover margin per game.
“Sometimes (turnovers) come in waves and that’s what happened on Saturday,” defensive coordinator Brian Ward said. “Our guys did a really good job of executing the game plan.”
Ward will ask the Sun Devils to limit explosive plays and generate disruption against the Horned Frogs’ offense — a tall order against one of the Big 12’s most prolific units. Led by junior quarterback Josh Hoover, TCU fields the Big 12’s third-best scoring offense, averaging 41.7 points per game.
Three games into the season, Hoover is on pace for the best season of his collegiate career, posting a career-high 180.9 passer rating — albeit through a small sample size. As they do before every matchup, ASU’s coaching staff spent the week studying film on the Horned Frogs’ signal caller. Ward, in particular, offered notably high praise for Hoover.
“He’s the best guy we’ve seen in the Big 12 since we’ve been in the Big 12,” Ward said. “He’s definitely an NFL guy.”
If Hoover were Batman, senior wide receiver Eric McAlister would be his Robin — a reliable and instinctive counterpart. At 6-foot-3, McAlister’s height stands out against smaller corners, but it’s his quickness and shiftiness after the catch that truly makes him a threat. For a bigger receiver, McAlister has the rare ability to turn up the field swiftly and slip past defenders.
Last Saturday, McAlister drew national attention with a 254-yard, three-touchdown performance against SMU — a stat line that earned him Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week and Walter Camp National Offensive Player of the Week honors. Of the 254 yards, 145 were gained after the catch, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
“We’re going to have to tackle him. He had, I think, about 140 yards (after the catch) against SMU,” cornerbacks coach Brian Carrington said. “We really got to prevent the (yards after catch) when we face those guys Friday.”
McAlister’s 320 receiving yards ranks second in the Big 12 — just 37 behind redshirt junior Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils’ leading receiver. Like Tyson, McAlister will draw coverage from the opposing team’s top cornerback. For ASU, that corner is junior Keith Abney II, who leads the team with two takeaways over the past two weeks.
Along with forcing turnovers, Abney has excelled at preventing scores — his 157 snaps without allowing a touchdown are the most in the nation. For the Sun Devils to win on Friday, Abney and company will need to keep the high-powered Horned Frogs offense out of the end zone — and, as is often crucial in college football, win the turnover battle.
“They’re an explosive offense, a confident offense,” Abney said. “We’re going to have to do a good job plastering routes.”
