Three takeaways from ASU’s tournament-hopes-shattering loss to Baylor

(Photo: Courtesy of YahooSports)

A court-storming upset victory over No. 13 Texas Tech had Arizona State men’s basketball feeling on top of the world.

Players and fans jumped around center court, screaming in jubilation. When the floor of Desert Financial Arena cleared, the party didn’t stop; it just migrated to ASU’s locker room, evident by senior guard Moe Odum’s Instagram live.

There was reason to celebrate.

The Sun Devils first win over a ranked opponent in 1,088 days kept their long-shot hopes of making the NCAA Tournament alive. ASU would need to keep the momentum rolling, though, in order to clinch a March Madness appearance.

Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, that was too tall a task.

Arizona State (14-13, 5-9 Big 12) walked into Waco, Texas, Saturday afternoon knowing it had to beat a lowly Baylor team (14-13, 4-10) to keep its hopes alive. The Sun Devils entered the halftime break up by eight points, showing continued improvement in rebounding and taking advantage of turnovers. By the time the final whistle blew, however, they found themselves behind 73-68, and winless against the Bears since 1988.

Here are three takeaways

SECOND-HALF SUFFERING

As mentioned above, ASU crumbled in spectacular fashion in the second half. It was a swing of the pendulum made all the more frustrating by how strong the Sun Devils played in the first.

A 13-5 run over the last 5:16 of the half – kick-started by a free-throw out of the hands of redshirt sophomore forward Santiago Trouet and finished off by a powerful slam from senior guard Anthony “Pig” Johnson – broke the game’s 27-27 tie and carried ASU into the visiting locker room at Foster Pavilion with all the momentum.

The Sun Devils reached a game-high 10-point lead during that run, thanks in large part to areas they excelled in all throughout the game’s first 20 minutes.

They limited mistakes, committing only four turnovers in the half, and took advantage of the Bears’ losing grip on the ball, scoring 15 points off their eight turnovers. They were a menace in the paint as well, scoring 18 of their 40 points there during the half, along with 10 defensive rebounds and six offensive rebounds that led to eight second-chance points.

In the second half, ASU just looked like a different team.

The Sun Devils were unable to force as many turnovers and began giving the ball away themselves, creating missed opportunities. The offensive rebounding also wasn’t as impressive, being able to only register three.

The team’s shooting ability evaporated, too, dropping from 46.8% from the field and 42% from three to 41.6% from the field and a paltry 13% from beyond the arc. The Sun Devils also experienced a nearly five-and-a-half-minute field goal drought and allowed the Bears to go on multiple small runs, chipping away at the score and eventually owning the half 41-28.

MOEWHERE TO BE SEEN

Odum has been the Sun Devils leading scorer throughout the 2025-26 season, reaching highs of 36 and averaging a very respectable 17.1 – ranked No. 13 in the conference – heading into Saturday’s matchup. Against Texas Tech, Odum exemplified his relative star power, dropping 23 points, including a dagger 3-pointer to seal the victory.

That version of Odum was nowhere to be seen against BU.

It took until the 12:54 mark in the first half for the Bronx, New York, native to get on the board with a deep three from the left wing after coming off a screen. He then went nearly 10 minutes without making another 3-pointer, ending the opening frame with just six.

The second half was more of the same, only scoring six points. To his credit, he woke up some in the clutch, scoring three of those six in the final two minutes; however, he failed to convert on a free-throw that could’ve made it a two-point game, and his performance was overall too little, too late.

Odum has only scored 12 points or fewer on seven occasions, but five of those games have resulted in losses. The Sun Devils have often gone as Odum goes, and his lackluster performance caught up to them in Texas.

BYE-BYE TOURNEY HOPES?

ASU has had an overall disappointing go of it, something it’s seemed to have experienced often over the past five years leading up to the 2025-26 season. Over that five-year period, head coach Bobby Hurley went 75-82 with only one tournament appearance, and for much of this season, it wasn’t looking likely that he’d add a second.

The win over Texas Tech, however, sparked a new conversation about the Sun Devils: Could they actually make it to the dance?

Entering the weekend No. 67 in the NET Rankings, No. 63 in KenPom and No. 62 in Bart Torvik’s rankings, and with two ranked matchups ahead, it seemed plausible. Now, though, after losing to Baylor, the hill might be too steep to climb for the Sun Devils.

For them to have any shot at making the tournament, they’ll likely have to beat both TCU and Utah, as well as beat one of either No. 8 Kansas or No. 6 Iowa State, who they play on the road.

The Sun Devils struggle as the away team, sporting a 2-7 record over the course of the season. It’ll be a tough task to defeat KU even as the home team, and an even tougher task to take on ISU at the Hilton Coliseum.

Before they even get to those games, ASU will need to get the job done against the Utes, who it’s already beaten once this year – on the road, no less – and before even that, the Horned Frogs on the road.

If ASU falls to TCU, its chances are all but gone, but even if they win against the Horned Frogs and the Utes, it’ll be a tough task to win another game against one of the country’s goliaths.