(Photo: Max Zepeda/WCSN)
The nightmare scenario has come to fruition for Arizona State men’s basketball, losing its last two games and falling from the fourth seed, which would have yielded a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. ASU (20-11, Pac-12 11-9) finished the season as the No. 6 seed in the conference, slatting a first-round matchup against Oregon State. The Sun Devils have four games in front of them and winning all four games could be a tough ask, especially since ASU hasn’t won four games in a row since early January.
Head coach Bobby Hurley will have to prepare his guys for a long stretch of games, as ASU’s recent struggles have made winning the Pac-12 tournament the most feasible way into the NCAA Tournament. That dream to reach the mountaintop of the Pac-12 begins at the base with Oregon State (11-20, Pac-12 5-15).
The last time ASU matchup up with OSU in the conference tournament was in 2016 when it lost 75-66. The Sun Devils don’t have a stellar track record in recent memory regarding the tournament. Most notably, the 2022 collapse, but the past decade has seen ASU fail to make any significant run, with the last time it passed the second round being in 2009. The program hopes that starting with an inferior opponent, like the Beavers, can build momentum for a lengthy run.
OSU has one victory away from Corvallis this season, against California (3-28). After a 7-6 start, the Beavers went 4-14, with most of the credit being pinned on the program’s dismal offense, scoring under 50 points five times. If not for the historically poor season from the Golden Bears, OSU would rank at the bottom of most of the conference’s offensive stats.
The Sun Devils swept the 11th-seed Beavers in the regular-season series, but those games were too close for comfort. ASU was trailing at halftime during both meetings and relied on second-half runs to escape with the victory.
During both contests, there was a heavy emphasis on letting it fly from deep, and the two culprits for that attack were sophomore forward Glenn Taylor Jr. and freshman guard Jordan Pope. The duo is the only Beavers averaging double digits, with Pope being the sharpshooter hitting at a 38.3% clip from beyond the arc on high volume.
Pope is deadly from the 3-point line, while Taylor Jr. attacks heavily at the rim. The former Arizona Compass Prep alum embraces the contact and finds a healthy portion of his points from the charity stripe. Taylor Jr. is tied for third in the Pac-12 with 3.8 free throws made per game.
As of late, the Sun Devils have struggled with careless fouls and defending the 3-point line. OSU shot 37.5% from beyond the arc in the two games against ASU and sprinkled in a healthy amount of attempts from the foul line. The Beavers’ streaky shooters are dynamic when in rhythm and fit into one of the Sun Devils’ most gaping weaknesses.
Taylor Jr. and Pope are unique offensive talents, but consistency has been a problem. There have only been 13 games this season where they both scored in double figures in the same game. They have struggled with both clicking simultaneously, with one or the other having a poor shooting performance from the field.
OSU’s offensive inconsistency from their top guys has been an enormous problem because of the lack of scoring firepower on the roster. The only other player to average more than seven points on the roster is junior guard Dexter Akanno. However, Akanno’s shooting limitations from the field lead to more to be desired from a third option.
Playmaking is a massive issue for the Beavers averaging 10.2 assists per game. Pope and Taylor Jr. lead the charge in that department but barely average over two assists per game. OSU lacks a floor general and ball handler that can facilitate the offense. Its 13.5 turnovers per game place the program second to last in the conference. OSU struggled against ASU with ball control, turning the ball over 16 times in both matchups.
Most of those turnovers came when the Sun Devils implemented a full-court press against the Beavers, and their inexperience started to flare up. Panic and ill-advised passes sparked a late run for ASU to storm back.
Another aspect that the Beavers struggled with was discipline on the defensive end. OSU gave up 53 free throws in its two meetings against ASU. It ranks 11th in the conference with 17.7 fouls per contest, unable to defend without fouling. The lack of size is a considerable detriment to the program effort.
The Beavers have been without their 7-foot-2 junior center Chol Marial because of injuries, who provided a huge relief in that area. Marial’s absence has forced head coach Wayne Tinkle to rely on inexperienced guys to fill in. Tinkle has an array of 6-foot-9 forwards at his disposal, which he uses to double opposing big men in the post to try and counteract their lack of strength down low.
ASU’s offense goes through the low and high post with senior forward Warren Washington, but OSU length has subsided those attempts in the first two meetings. Freshman forward Tyler Bilodeau and freshman forward Michael Rataj have picked up the responsibility to try and mature quickly in defending the paint.
While the Beavers hang in the lower echelon of the Pac-12 in opposing shooting percentages, their defense has produced some outstanding performances against the highest level of competition the conference has to offer. Yet the lackluster offense hasn’t been able to capitalize on those opportunities.
Wednesday’s matchup for ASU is more than surviving and advancing. It’s about making a statement. The statement hopefully eliminates doubts from people outside and inside the program that it is built to make a run. Based on their record, the Beavers shouldn’t cause the Sun Devils trouble, but Hurley and the program can’t walk into Las Vegas sleepwalking, or it could be taking the first flight Thursday morning back to Tempe.
