Sun Devils look to keep NCAA Tournament hopes alive against Cal

(Photo Credit: Evan Barcanic/WCSN)

The proverbial clock is ticking on Arizona State Men’s Basketball (11-10, 5-5 Pac-12) to make a final push for consideration come tournament selection day. Many may focus on the dwindling number of chances ASU has against Quadrant 1 — top-30 teams in the NET Rankings — opponents. However, the Sun Devils next matchup against California (8-13, 4-6 Pac-12), the 136th-ranked team in the NET, offers a different challenge: simply get a win.

ASU is currently on a three-game losing streak, a stark contrast the promising 4-0 start the Sun Devils posted to begin conference play.

On paper, Cal offers a relatively unexacting opportunity to right the slowly-sinking ship in Tempe. It ranks 104 and 152 in the nation for adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency respectively, per KenPom.

The struggling Bears have faltered of late, but it isn’t for a lack of talent. They are led by one of the country’s premier scoring threats in junior guard Jaylon Tyson. His 20.1 points per game are tied for 25th in the country, and he stands alone entrenched as the second-highest scorer in the Pac-12.

Tyson, a 6 foot 7 inch wingman, has shown an impressive ability to penetrate the lane and score in a multitude of ways around the basket. His 36.7% shooting percentage from deep suggests a comfort in letting it fly from downtown as well, and his offensive versatility will stretch the Sun Devil defense.

The graduate duo of big man Fardaws Aimaq and guard Jalen Cone provide additional firepower on offense for the Bears. Aimaq, the team’s second-leading scorer, averages 15 points per game while also adding 10.5 rebounds and a block per game. He will be an essential cog on both ends. Cone — while only averaging 13.7 points a game — has eclipsed the 20-point mark four times this season, proving an ability to get hot and carry the team.

The Sun Devils will rely on their relatively-elite and pestering defensive style to slow down Cal’s leading trio. On average, they force 14.24 turnovers a game which is 55th-best in the nation and second best in the conference. Junior guard Frankie Collins’ 3.24 steals per game is second-best in the nation, and graduate big man Alonzo Gaffney averages 1.2 steals a game and 1.4 blocks a game, factoring in as an all-around defensive disruptor. The Bears give away 11.6 turnovers a contest, which is the 129th-lowest mark in the nation and may offer an opportunity for ASU to get in transition and score easy points.

The Sun Devils claimed a 71-69 victory the first time these teams met in Berkeley on New Year’s Eve. It was a heart-stopping finish as Collins converted a game-winning lay-in with seven seconds remaining that all but sealed the contest.

ASU may draw on its triumph in its last meeting to inspire confidence that the reverse fixture will inherently be the same, but it should do so with caution. The Bears shot a measly 18.5 percent from three which was one of only two times this season they’ve shot under 23 percent from deep — they shot 16.7 percent from downtown against Montana State in November. Additionally, Collins’ 25 points in that game were the last time the point guard has eclipsed 20 points in the eight games since.

No matter how it gets done, ASU’s season in relation to their tournament hopes has rendered them in win-now and win-often mode. They will have to be nearly perfect down the stretch and can not concede any more hiccups. A loss to Cal may very well spell the end of any March Madness aspirations for ASU, making this matchup a pivotal game in deciding how the Sun Devils finish their season.