(Photo: Rebecca Striffler/WCSN)
Losing back-to-back home games to then No. 5 UCLA and USC have Arizona State men’s basketball fans’ stomachs turning, as each game has implications for the program’s post-season implications. Looking back on previous seasons, ASU often begins the marathon-long season sprinting from the gunshot and finds itself in a comfortable lead over the competition. However, an aspect of its game changes, and the Sun Devils’ special season starts to slip.
ASU finds itself on a path that has often become a staple of every season. The past decade has been filled with Sun Devils’ seasons with promising starts before a collapse. In the past ten seasons, ASU’s first-half winning percentage is .635 (101-59), while its second-half winning percentage is .491 (79-82).
Head coach Bobby Hurley has been at the forefront of the program for eight years now and appears to be on the verge of that moment, as Hurley and the Sun Devils travel for two road games in Washington against the Washington Huskies and the Washington State Cougars, where they begin the decade-long battle of staying afloat.
ASU handled Washington and Washington State in Tempe early this season with 73-65 and 77-71 victories, respectively. Regardless of those results, the Sun Devils have never swept the state of Washington since the series started in 04-05 and will again be a challenge for the program as they head north.
Washington Huskies (12-9, Pac-12 4-6) Thursday 9 p.m. AZ
After an 8-3 start by the Huskies, they endured a tough stretch on their schedule where they lost five straight, three of which were ranked opponents. While the final score was within single digits, ASU won convincingly against Washington, leading by 20 points with only a few minutes remaining.
The Jan. 8 matchup saw the Sun Devils dominate at the rim, accumulating more paint points and rebounds. The 38 paint points were the most ASU scored in a single game this season and will be a massive part of its offensive attack heading into Seattle. Sharing the ball was a huge reason for the Sun Devils success in the paint, finishing the game with a season-high 23 assists.
“We’ve been a balanced offensive team,” Hurley said. “We got to get a lot of guys contributing and playing well. We’ve had the most success this year when we move the basketball very well and share it.”
While sophomore guard Jamiya Neal and senior forward Warren Washington respectively snatched 12 rebounds that won the Sun Devils the rebound advantage 48-44. In the Pac-12, the Huskies are 11th with 37.3 rebounds allowed per game, which is the catalyst for the second-worst scoring defense. Despite winning the battle down low, Hurley knows they need to be better about not surrendering as many offensive rebounds.
“We gave up to many offensive rebounds in our last match with Washington,” Hurley said. “That’s some stuff we’ve discussed internally in our practices and our film sessions.”
However, Washington is fourth in defensive efficiency in the conference, so while it has shortcomings, the Huskies’ defense is no slouch. Junior center Braxton Meah leads the program, whose 7-foot-1 stature has acclaimed 35 blocks this year. Meah only played 14 minutes against ASU because of early foul trouble, which could significantly halt the Sun Devils’ rim attack.
Washington’s perimeter defense has an array of guys that can cause havoc, with five guards averaging one steal per game. Senior guard PJ Fuller Jr. and freshman guard Keyon Menifield lead that charge with 27 and 22 steals, respectively. ASU has struggled to combat zone defense this season, Washington implemented a hefty amount of a 2-3 zone in its first matchup, but Hurley isn’t worried about heading into Thursday.
“We did struggle early against it, but once we got into a rhythm going against it we were able to find some cracks in it and figure out where our opportunities were,” Hurley said. “The best offense is good defense to beat the zone down the floor so they can’t set up.”
The Huskies’ defense has been by committee, but the offense has essentially gone through senior forward Keion Brooks Jr. taking a load of the responsibilities. Brooks Jr. is averaging 17.3 points on the season, but since playing the Sun Devils on Jan. 8th is putting up 21.8 points.
The 6-foot-7 wing is the only Husky averaging more than ten points per game and has had seven 20-point games, showcasing his versatility with the ball in his hand. Brooks Jr. has had to adjust to being the primary source of Washington’s offense due to early season injuries to teammates but has filled the role nicely and is dangerous for ASU.
However, every problem has a solution, and for the Sun Devils, the answer is forcing turnovers. The Huskies struggle immensely with their ball control, only having two games this season with under ten turnovers. Washington, when faced with press defense, has shown signs of weakness. Seeing how those two forces clash in Seattle this Thursday will be intriguing.
“The one thing we did well in that game is guard and got stops,” Hurley said. “That’s how we like to play. If we can get stops and get deflections, get steals and rebound the ball.”
Washington State (9-12, Pac-12: 4-6) Saturday 6 p.m.
Saturday’s matchup is against one of the unluckiest teams in the nation. Analytic discourse often leaves much more confused than enlightened, but Washington State has a Kenpom luck rating of -.152. To put it in perspective, that ranks 360 out of 363.
Injuries, close losses, and just getting a bad bounce off the ball have Washington State sitting at 9-12, but that record doesn’t represent the quality of this team. Hurley highlighted this facet of the Cougars in his post-game press conference on Jan. 5.
“I think it’s a quality win,” Hurley said after Washington State. “I don’t really look at their record because they’re not the same team they were early in the year when they had injuries and a variety of things they had to go through. They’re a good basketball team.”
The sentiment rings ever more potent when Washington State upset No. 6 Arizona in Tucson. The Cougars are dangerous, and their 3-point shooting is where most of the damage lies. First in the Pac-12 in 3-pointers attempted, made, and percentage-wise.
ASU fans will remember junior guard Jabe Mullins, who scared them when the Cougar sharpshooter hit multiple threes in a row late, bringing the game within three points. Mullins is one of the three Washington State sharpshooters shooting above 38 percent from the perimeter, including junior guard Justin Powell and senior forward DJ Rodman.
“So much is going to depend how we defend,” Hurley said. “If we allow teams to shoot 50 percent like the last two teams, then we’ll going to struggle to win. If we can generate stops, take some pressure off our offense because our defense is performing, then we typically get into a pretty good flow.”
Despite the problems those three will raise against ASU, they aren’t the Cougars’ top two leading scorers. Those spots are reserved for junior guard TJ Bamba and sophomore forward Gueye Mouhamed. The duo didn’t demonstrate their strengths against the Sun Devils in the team’s first matchup but should still be treated with massive caution.
Bamba is one of the few slashers on the roster and always finds his way to the rim. The 6-foot-5 guard relishes one-on-one matchups, gliding past his defender and embracing the contact at the bucket. His aggressive playstyle gets him to the charity stripe, where he’s second on the Cougars with 56 free throws made.
The person in first is Mouhamed, and once he steps on the court, it’s not hard to see why. The 6-foot-11 big man has seven double-doubles this season because he is active around the rim. Mouhamed’s frame alone leads to drawing fouls but also gets his team second chance opportunities with his rebounding ability. The former Pac-12 All-freshman team member averages the most offensive rebounds in the conference with 3.2 per game.
Washington State’s offense fills the headline of what to watch for, but its defense is where it sneaks up on opponents. Third-best scoring defense in the Pac-12, while holding teams to 30.5 percent from shooting beyond the arc, the Cougars can lock in when needed. Mouhamed is the anchor of the defense that is second in the conference in rebounds allowed with 31.5 and tied for first in blocks.
However, the Cougars don’t generate many turnovers and give little resistance to protecting the paint. In the past four games, Washington State has given up an average of 32 points inside the paint, including a 42-point performance by Utah. Those two are strong suits for ASU, as they don’t turn the ball over and attack the rim with its size, headed by senior forward Warren Washington.
“I hope you would see that same guy,” Hurley said on Washington repeating his level of success against the Cougars. “He’s going to be a focal point because of the style of defense and the zone. Can we can get him touches in the high post, able to go high low with him so many things we can do scheme-wise.”
Overall, the two-game series will tell a lot about this year’s Sun Devils team and how they compare to those in years past. ASU has beaten these conference rivals back-to-back before, but it would be historical to do it again this season. The importance of these next two games are critical for the Sun Devils in making their case to be a part of March Madness for the first time since 2019.
“I’m burying my head in the sand on this,” Hurley said on March Madness rankings. “We certainly have to win games and continue to win games. That’s what we’re going to try and do in the last 11.”
