Possible Big 12 scenarios as Sun Devils place No. 21 in Week 12 CFP Rankings

(Photo: Spencer Barnes/WCSN)

TEMPE — Yes, you read that headline correctly. The Arizona State football program is ranked No. 21 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. In November. With two games left to play. It’s the first time the school is ranked since 2021 and the first time in November they’ve been ranked since 2014. When head coach Kenny Dillingham was hired in late 2022, he was coming into a sinking ship. He was signed to a four-year contract with likely the hopes of finding success by year four.

In 2023, his first year at the helm, the Sun Devils won three games, the same as their 2022 win total. ASU was promptly picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the 2024 Preseason Media Poll. Now with two weeks remaining, Dillingham has expedited the rebuild currently sitting at 8-2 (5-2 Big 12) and with a viable path to not only the Big 12 title game but, potentially, to the CFP.

The Sun Devils don’t control their own destiny quite yet. First, they still require a colossal win Saturday against the 9-1 BYU Cougars — who had gone nine weeks undefeated and peaked at No. 6 in the country before falling to Kansas, 17-13, this past weekend — before any considerations can be made. The Cougars’ loss did leave the door open for the possibility of the Sun Devils swindling their way into the conference title game in the Dallas Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Second, they’ll need some help. Chances aren’t exactly sky-high but the possibility is extremely present. It’s now officially a four-way race for two spots in Texas with ASU firmly in the thick of it.

Here are all the scenarios for ASU you need to know heading into the twilight of the Big 12 Season.

Big 12 Standings:

Team	Overall Record	Conference Record
BYU	9-1	6-1
Colorado	8-2	6-1
Arizona State	8-2	5-2
Iowa State	8-2	5-2
Kansas State	7-3	4-3
Baylor	6-4	4-3
TCU	6-4	4-3
Texas Tech	6-4	4-3
West Virginia	5-5	4-3
Cincinnati	5-5	3-4
Houston	4-6	3-4
Kansas	4-6	3-4
Arizona	4-6	2-5
UCF	4-6	2-5
Utah	4-6	1-6
Oklahoma State	3-7	0-7

Tie Breakers

Step 1: Head-to-head competition among the teams.

Step 2: Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 3: Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings

Step 4: Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents, or the strength-of-conference schedule.

Step 5: Total number of wins in a 12-game season

Step 6: Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games

Step 7: Coin toss

First, ASU has to beat BYU. If BYU wins that would be ASU’s third conference loss, simultaneously clinching BYU’s place in the Big 12 title game and all but eliminating the Sun Devils from contention and almost all scenarios would be a non-starter. Should Dillingham’s men beat the Cougars, they’re in business. Even in the event that BYU finishes the season with the same two conference losses as ASU, the Sun Devils would own the head-to-head record, eliminating the Cougars.

Assuming Colorado, who plays Kansas next week, and Iowa State, who plays Utah, both win out — it’s bold to assume anyone in the Big 12 conference has guaranteed wins — ASU would move into close striking distance for a spot. It would likely just have to beat its struggling rivals to the south, Arizona, who just ended a five-game losing streak last week.

With Colorado clinching in that win-out scenario as the only one-loss team in the conference, it would be a two-way tie between the Cyclones and ASU for the second spot. In that scenario, the Sun Devils’ fate would rest on the “win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings,” tiebreaker, and the Cyclone’s season finale against Kansas State.

ASU just picked up a crucial win against the Wildcats last week, but should Iowa State match that win, the Cyclones would get the last spot on the strength of their win against Cincinnati which ASU lost too.

Should Iowa State drop either of its next two games, it would be its third conference loss, and ASU and Colorado would be the clear-cut top two teams without the need for any tiebreakers. Should the Buffaloes drop a game then they would have to hope the Cyclones lose to Kansas State in their season finale because should Iowa State win that game they would own the “win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings,” since Colorado lost to Kansas State.

In this scenario of a Colorado loss, ASU would have to hope either Iowa State picks up a third loss or the Buffalos lose both of its final two because Colorado has a win against Texas Tech who beat the Sun Devils in Lubbock earlier in the season.

In the event Iowa State loses one of its final two games, Colorado loses out, and Arizona State wins out, then ASU would take claim of first place of the conference going into the Big 12 championship.

In the event ASU loses either of its next two, especially in the event it loses to BYU, it would need both Colorado and Iowa State to match the Sun Devils’ three losses and then it would be subject to a mess of tie-breaking scenarios that are impossible to predict at this stage.

If the Sun Devils do make the championship then the complex scenarios end there. The equation from then on is simple. Win the Big 12 crown and secure nearly — watch out for Army and Boise State — automatic passage to the College Football Playoff, or lose and they subject themselves to the decision-making of the committee. Should they lose the championship, they would be a three-loss Big 12 team with likely two unranked losses so an at-large bid is close to out of the question. Hoisting the Big 12 championship trophy in Arlington is the only way in for ASU.

Finally, there is one scenario where ASU is eliminated even if it wins its final two games. If BYU loses to Houston following its loss to the Sun Devils, it could result in ASU missing one of the top two spots due to the winning percentage against common opponents tiebreaker with the best conference records. However, there are many different combinations that could result in ASU still making it even if BYU loses to Houston, so that scenario would be impossible to predict without the results of the remaining two games conference-wide.

In the event ASU’s Big 12 title hopes or College Football Playoff hopes are dashed over the next two weeks, Dillingham’s squad will still go bowling for the first time since 2021 under the previous regime. In the school’s first year away from the Pac-12 they are eligible as a legacy school for the previous bowl games that involved Pac-12 teams.

Bowls ASU is Eligible For as a Legacy Pac-12 School

Starco Brands LA Bowl (Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA)

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl ( Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV)

Valero Alamo Bowl (Alamodome, San Antonion, TX.)

Bowl Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl (Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA.)

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX.)