(Photo: Scotty Bara/WCSN)
Last season was dominated by Pac-12 favorite Arizona, but the 2015-16 campaign lacks any clear-cut juggernaught up top. With that in mind, the Pac-12 is always loaded with talent, and as expected, a bevy of skilled freshmen look to put their stamp on the season. All but one of these teams predicted to finish in the top-third of the conference will have to replace superstars and key players that allowed them to have any sort of success last season. The conference may not send more than four teams to the NCAA Tournament this season, and these schools have the hypothetical inside track to make bids to the Dance.
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Arizona (34-4, 16-2 in 2014-15)
Offseason Report: The Wildcats took a huge hit in production this offseason due to the NBA draft. Four of the team’s five starters made the leap to the Association this summer, leaving only senior center Caleb Tarczewski. These four players accounted for 47.6 of the team’s 76.6 points per game, so it will be up to Tarczewski and returning senior guard Gabe York, who started 13 games for the Wildcats last year, to pick up the offensive slack
Outlook: Despite losing most of their core, the Wildcats are still the slight favorite to win the conference. Tarczewski and York will have elevated roles while there will be plenty of eyes on highly-touted freshman guard Allonzo Trier. There is not a lot of proven talent on this year’s squad, but the potential is overwhelming. Arizona head coach Sean Miller has repeatedly called this team his most balanced in years. Every player will contribute and they should have relative success this season.
Key Stat: 48.9 percent from the flor – The Wildcats were sixth in the nation in field goal percentage last year. With so much NBA-ready, talent it made sense that they shot so well. This year’s group more than likely won’t fare that well, but if Arizona can keep it anywhere near that number, expect this team to be one of the better squads in the country.
Best-case: With most of the team from last season gone, Tarczewski steps up from an above-average center to a two-way force around the rim. York and Trier run the offense smoothly and efficiently as ever, and the Wildcats soar through the Pac-12 en route to their third-straight conference title.
Worst-case: With the loss of their starters the team struggles offensively. York does not rise up to the lofty expectations and Trier does not adjust to the speed of the college game. Tarczewski is not able to carry the heavy defensive load that will be placed on him and the wildcats struggle their way to a middling finish in conference play.
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California (18-15, 7-11 in 2014-15)
Offseason Report: The Golden Bears’ squad from last year is mostly intact. First-team All Pac-12 guard Tyrone Wallace is back for his senior year. Wallace led the team in scoring, assists and rebounds last season. Also returning is junior guard Jordan Mathews, who complimented Wallace in the backcourt last year. Although they retain starters Jabari Bird and Sam Singer, the Golden Bears lost big man David Kravish. The biggest offseason change was the addition of freshman Jaylen Brown and freshman big man Ivan Rabb, who were ranked No. 4 and No. 8 in ESPN’s top-100, respectively.
Outlook: Returning four starters from last year’s team and adding two of the best high school players in the nation, Cal looks primed to be one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this season. An extra year of experience for the player’s on the squad will help their cause, and Wallace is already one of the better players in the entire nation. The ceiling for this team is astronomically high.
Key Stat: 66.5 points per game – The Golden Bears were one of the worst offensive teams in the Pac-12 last year. Only Oregon State (60.9 points per game) was worse. If it wants to compete for a conference title, Cal will have to do a much better job at putting the ball in the hoop consistently. Adding Brown will help their cause as he averaged 28 points per game as a senior leading his team to a state title.
Best-case: As one of the few teams that have an experienced squad this year, the Golden Bears fix their scoring woes and Brown rises to become a key contributor. Their naturally small-ball utility lineup causes matchup problems, and they space the floor to perfection. They go on to rule the conference and make a serious run for the Pac-12 championship.
Worst-case: Height becomes an issue, as the team does not have a truly strong presence on the inside. They struggle with bigger, more physical teams. The Golden Bears continue to struggle on offense and end up with the same issues that put them in the middle of the pack last year. Wallace is not able to do it all and the team limps to a lackluster under .500 season.
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Utah (26-9, 13-5 in 2014-15)
Offseason Report: The Utes took a huge blow with the loss of Delon Wright to the NBA. Wright was first team All Pac-12 on both offense and defense and led the team in scoring. Wright was the leader and catalyst of last season’s team, and his absence is a major step down for Utah. The good news is: The Utes still maintained the rest of their team that lost to eventual champion Duke in the Sweet 16 last year. The key return to this year’s team is senior Brandon Taylor. He, along with Wright, was a chief factor in the team’s success in the past and will be the reason the Utes succeed heading forward into the future.
Outlook: After finishing second in the Pac-12 last year to Arizona, the Utes are battle-tested and hungry for another shot at the elusive conference title. With most of their team from last year coming back, there should not be much of a downgrade as far as results go. Losing one of the best players in the nation certainly does not help the cause but Utah should be plenty good enough to challenge for the conference title again. Led by seniors Jordan Loveridge and Taylor, Utah is poised to have another stellar season.
Key Stat: 16-1 at home – Utah won 16 of its 17 home games last year, with the only loss coming to the eventual conference champion Arizona Wildcats. The Utes have a huge home court advantage at the Jon Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City. To reproduce the relative success they had last year, they will have to protect their home court over lesser opponents.
Best-case: With Taylor and Loveridge still there and 7-foot sophomore Jakob Poeltl guarding the paint, the Utes don’t miss a beat. The guards continue to slash and kick while creating opportunities for the big man, and Utah climbs back into serious contention for a Pac-12 title.
Worst-case: The loss of Wright hurts the team worse than imagined as a key distributor, ballhandler, and scorer is gone. The offense does not flow as smoothly and perimeter defense lacks due to Wright’s absence. Utah does not drown but they are never able to right the ship and finish in the lower half of Pac-12 teams.
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Oregon (26-10, 13-5 in 2014-15)
Offseason Report: Oregon, much like Utah, lost a star to the clutches of the NBA this offseason. Pac-12 Player of the Year Joseph Young was the Ducks’ key producer last year, dropping in 20.7 points per game and leading the team with a solid 3.8 assists per game. A loss like that takes a huge chunk out of the team, but the Ducks have talent to build around. Retaining three of their four main starters, including leading rebounder Dwayne Benjamin, Oregon still has most of the pieces that surrounded Young last year.
Outlook: When you lose the best player in your conference, the outlook the next season is bound to go down. This is a team chock full of experienced young talent. Their only issue would be finding creative ways to replace the gaping hole that Young left in their offensive production. Expect heightened roles for both Benjamin and second leading scorer Elgin Cook. He will have to go to the next level for Oregon to have any chance at being competitive in the wide-open Pac-12.
Key Stat: 688 points – Joe Young scored the fifth-most points in all of Division I college basketball last year with 688. His 20.7 points per game put in the top-10 in the nation. Oregon will undoubtedly have problems finding a source of offense similar to that this season. The Ducks will have to rely on a team effort to produce the same way they could with Young at the helm.
Best-case: For Oregon, there may not be much leeway for mistakes this season. They somehow come together and find ways to keep putting the ball in the basket while improving their defense (last year’s 70.8 points per game allowed was 10th in the Pac-12) and claw their way to an upper tier finish in the Pac-12. Sophomore Jordan Bell leads the conference in blocks once again.
Worst-case: A regression to the mean occurs. The absence of one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball takes its toll, and the Ducks see their points per game drop severely. Nothing falls for them and night-by-night they lose close games because they cannot defend down the stretch. They end up near the bottom of the Pac-12 and find themselves with no real shot at winning a conference title.
