2015-16 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball preview: Middle of the Pac-12

(Photo: Scotty Bara/WCSN)

 

While the rich haven’t necessarily gotten richer, and the poor now have some talent and potential to make noise, the middle-class of the Pac-12 is solidified mystery in every sense of that oxymoron. Each of the four teams present similar but not-quite-similar enough rosters from teams that had some decent success in making post-season runs, or in one team’s case, injuries excused them from missing the Big Dance.

All things considered, the middle of the conference is where the strength is ultimately determined, and if the middle of the table is any indicator of where the Pac-12 is as a whole, then the conference is one big, muddy mystery entering the 2015-16 campaign.

Catchin’ Z’s (10/22/15) — Full Pac-12 Preview by Catchin’ Z’S on Mixcloud

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UCLA (22-14, 11-7 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Bruins may have lost a first round draft pick in Kevon Looney, but the bigger impact is in the loss of Norman Powell. While replacing Powell’s scoring prowess will be a tall task, but Steve Alford brought in a top-30 recruiting class highlighted by guards Aaron Holiday and Prince Ali (my favorite name in the conference).

Outlook: In his first two seasons, Steve Alford has brought UCLA to back-to-back Sweet 16 berths all while generally running a relatively thin rotation. This season, without Powell to lean on offensively, it’ll be up to junior guard Bryce Alford to orchestrate the offense that could feature senior forward Tony Parker on the block. Parker has flashed potential to be a consistent 15 and eight player for the Bruins. Sophomore big man Thomas Welsh is coming off a nice run with the USA U19 team that took gold in the FIBA U19 World Championships, and he’ll look to bolster the Bruin frontcourt as well.

A guy to watch for could be sophomore forward Jonah Bolden. After the Australian was ruled ineligible last season, Alford is hoping the rangy Bolden will add versatility and shooting to the rotation.

Key stat: 3 returners who averaged 20-plus minutes – Alford runs a tight rotation, and so predicting how the Bruins will play out this season is about as murky as it gets with six returners who played in at least 15 games last season. One of the players who is likely to make a big jump in minutes is sophomore forward Gyorgy Goloman. “G.G” has reportedly added close to 20 pounds to his 6-foot-10 frame, and he’ll open up some options for Alford to tool around with his lineup.

Best-case: Bryce Alford extends his offensive responsibilities in a way that can partially replace Normal Powell, and Welsh and Parker team up to bang away on teams down low. Parker particularly builds upon a strong campaign and the spacing on offense isn’t hindered by playing two big bodies inside.

This team is on the edge of the Tournament-sphere, but if Hamilton makes a jump in his game a well, the Bruins could make noise in the top-third of the conference.

Worst-case: Although Looney was a first-round pick, replacing Powell’s production could prove to be too much for UCLA. Powell was able to make something out of nothing when UCLA needed it most, and while Alford is a good shooter, he’s not quite the same level as Powell.

Steve Alford never runs a particularly deep rotation, but in this sense, his comments about being a deep team may stem more from not having one standout player. He showed a good ability to slot players in the best position to succeed despite a potential lack of talent while in New Mexico, and that might not work quite as well in the Pac-12.

Bold prediction: Thomas Welsh breaks out this season and averages 14 points and nine rebounds per game while he and Parker become a dominant duo on the blocks.

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Oregon State (17-14, 8-10 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Beavers return every starter from a team that took some people by surprise despite finishing seventh in the Pac-12 last season. OSU over 90 percent of its scoring and rebounding from 2014-15, second only to USC, and most importantly, Gary Payton II is still on the roster.

Players looking to add new flavor to the team include a trio of freshmen. Guard Stephen Thompson Jr., forward Tres Tinkle and center Drew Eubanks looked good in OSU’s preseason tilts, and they can all add a new element to the offense.

Outlook: OSU head coach Wayne Tinkle almost immediately turned around the expectations of a team that was picked to finish last in the Pac-12 a season ago. Payton is far-and-away the best player on this team, and he has every reason to build on his stat-stuffer of a season as a senior.

Relying on freshmen is always dicey, but Thompson and Tres Tinkle are a pair of coach’s sons who’ve looked impressive early. Thompson’s shooting will be a particularly useful weapon and something that wasn’t necessarily a strength for the Beavers last season. The defense was always strong last season, so now it’ll be up to a jump in offensive efficiency and potency in order for the Beavers to make the jump into the upper-half of the conference.

Key stat: 32.3 percent three-point shooting percentage – While the Beavers ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense last season, it often couldn’t take advantage of that by scoring enough on the other end of the floor. Thompson and Tinkle should help to raise this number, and if that happens, that opens driving lanes for Payton and junior guard Malcolm Duvivier.

Best-case: Payton plays at an All Pac-12 level and leads a Beaver team that takes a leap after impressing many last season. Wayne Tinkle’s second season might go through a rough start with injuries to a few rotation players, but Tres Tinkle and Thompson should provide the shooting that wasn’t there last season. This team could very well look like the Delon Wright-led Utah Utes from last season, and that warrants a top-4 finish in the conference.

Worst-case: Freshman shooters are the most unreliable kinds of shooters, and making the switch from “biggest surprise team” to “contending team” is one that is much harder than it may come across as initially. If the offense struggles to produce once again, Payton might not be able to surprise anybody this season with more attention on him which leaves the Beavers pretty tangled up on offense. The Beavers were picked to finish sixth in the conference for a reason, and it may just be that they can’t keep up with the upper-tier of the conference on offense.

Bold prediction: The Beavers finish fourth in the Pac-12 and make the NCAA Tournament while Payton is named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.

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Colorado (16-18, 7-11 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Buffaloes already had their hands tied with replacing Asika Booker’s high-volume scoring, but then they received news that senior guard Xavier Johnson tore his Achilles tendon over the summer. Suddenly, life got a lot tougher, and Providence transfer Josh Fortune will have to be more of a focal point than maybe anyone thought.

Outlook: Johnson and Fortune would’ve been a nice one-two scoring punch the way Johnson was with Booker the last two seasons, but unfortunately, that duo will likely not come to fruition this season. Johnson says he wants to be ready by conference play, but that timetable seems nearly impossible given the severity of his injury. Alas, much of the load will be put on the broad shoulders of senior forward Josh Scott and redshirt junior forward Wesley Gordon. The two combined for 21.1 points and 15.3 rebounds per game last season.

However, the Buffaloes had the second-worst turnover margin in the Pac-12 last season, and with inexperienced ball handlers comes inexperienced post-passes, so that number could certainly stay the same this season.

Key stat: -1.94 turnover margin – No surprise here. Any stat that ranks toward the bottom of the conference is certainly something that has to be addressed the next season, and it gets harder without familiarity in the backcourt. If Xavier Talton and Dominique Collier can sure up the perimeter and take care of the basketball, that’ll make the world of difference in getting the post-play going as well.

Best-case: Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon could very conceivabley become one of the most punishing frontcourt duos in the conference. The main problem here will be perimeter scoring, and without Johnson, it’ll be all Josh Fortune. With that in mind, Fortune showed he could fill it up when he gets going, and a change of scenery could be good for him. All things considered, a middle-of-the-pack finish in the conference is about as high as this roster projects toward.

Worst-case: This team doesn’t exactly have any eye-popping factors without Booker on its roster to get those random, “Where did that come from?” buckets from time to time. Scott and Gordon are nice players, but whether they can shoulder an offensive load has yet to be seen, and for as much as Fortune could provide, he was a low-percentage shooter at Providence (41.4 percent from the field last season). A handful of teams toward the bottom-third of the conference have the talent and potential to eclipse the Buffaloes, and that means a down year for Colorado after injuries stole a potential Tournament-run last season.

Bold prediction: Colorado can’t make up for Xavier Johnson’s injury and stumble into Pac-12 play, and Josh Scott sees a dip in his production as the Buffaloes finish in the bottom-third of the conference.

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Arizona State (18-16, 9-9 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: Bobby Hurley enters his first season with a grand total of six returning scholarship players and nine total available. JUCO transfers Andre Spight and Maurice O’Field should certainly help bolster the thin roster, but freshman Andre Adams would’ve certainly been a big help in the post before a knee injury ruled him out for the season.

Keeping sophomore guard Tra Holder in Tempe was key, especially considering the form he ended the season with, and given Hurley’s obvious track record and pedigree, Holder is building expectations for his second season.

To look even further ahead in the future, Buffalo transfers Shannon Evans and Torian Graham will improve the squad in various aspects, but the two are relegated to just practicing while redshirting due to transfer rules.

Outlook: This team is undersized, undermanned and in transition, but it should be a competitive side nonetheless. Hurley’s pace of play had Buffalo in the top 35 teams last season, according to sports-reference.com. Given that the only true low-post player for the Sun Devils is senior Eric Jacobsen, the Sun Devils will likely rely on gang rebounding and players like junior forward Savon Goodman and senior forward Willie Atwood to stretch the floor on offense while maintaining their own on defense.

Hurley’s arrival brought a jolt of excitement to Tempe, but whether that excitement pertains more to the program he begins to build or the product on the floor this season will be an interesting development throughout the season.

Key stat: 2.32 blocked shots per game – The Sun Devils didn’t have much rim protection at all last season, and that blocked shots per game number was dead-last in the Pac-12. Jacobsen is noticeably lighter and bouncier this season, but he isn’t a natural shot blocker as much as he is a good help defender. The Sun Devils have a bunch of ‘tweener players in Goodman, O’Field, JUCO transfer Obinna Oleka and Atwood, but against the bigger frontcourts in the conference, ASU could find itself outmatched inside.

Best-case: The Sun Devils utilize their versatility on both ends to swarm opposing offenses and spread opponents on defense, and Tra Holder makes the leap many are hoping he makes. Sophomore guard Kodi Justice, Blakes and Spight fill in on the wing for the losses of Bo Barnes, Shaquielle McKissic and Jon Gilling. ASU has the potential to be a better three-point shooting team than last season, and the offense as a whole has the potential of having more players successfully attacking off the dribble. Under Herb Sendek, ASU surprised many with a fifth-place finish in the Pac-12, and that could very well be the ceiling once again for Hurley’s first season in charge.

Worst-case: If Jacobsen’s foul-trouble woes follows him into his senior season, the Sun Devils are incredibly thin in the frontcourt. Offensively, Spight, Blakes, Justice and Holder could all be streaky scorers from the perimeter for better or worse, and as Hurley implements his uptempo style of play, there could be issues taking care of the basketball. Given the nature of the guys on the roster, an eighth-place finish in the conference seems about the right ‘worst-case’ scenario for the Sun Devils.

Bold prediction: Willie Atwood breaks out this season and averages 12 points per contest and is near the top of the conference in three-point field goal percentage.

 

You can reach Zac Pacleb on Twitter @ZacPacleb or via email at zacpacleb@gmail.com

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