(Photo: Spencer Barnes/WCSN)
When No. 15 Arizona State football takes the field or the Big 12 Championship at AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas on Saturday, ASU (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) won’t have to worry about “what if” scenarios for the first time in weeks. For nearly a month, every scenario under the sun has floated around the team due to the viability and combination of results that could get the Sun Devils into the conference championship. Now the equation is simple. Win the game and ASU will be in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Lose, and it’ll be out.
While the stakes have been simplified, they have only been amplified. While ASU was the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the most recent College football playoff rankings and is projected to make the playoff, its spot is far from guaranteed. Nipping at the 15th-ranked Sun Devils’ heels are the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (10-2, 7-2 Big 12), a team more than prepared to physically push through ASU for that final playoff spot.
“There’s a clear identity (in Iowa State),” ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham, who won the Big 12’s Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year Thursday, said. “The best teams in the country have a clear identity. When you watch this team play the toughness and the physicality across the board is the clear identity that they have in the program.”
The Sun Devils will have to surmount the Cyclones heralded secondary without their leading receiver in redshirt sophomore Jordyn Tyson. Tyson, the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, suffered a significant upper-body injury late in the third quarter of a 49-7 ASU win over Arizona in its regular-season finale Saturday. He already had eight catches, 143 receiving yards and a touchdown to that point. Only one other ASU receiver finished with more than two catches, and it was graduate Melquan Stovall who finished with three.
After missing the entirety of 2023 due to an injury Tyson was enjoying a breakout season in 2024. His 75 catches, 1,101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns were all within the conference’s top six. Moreover, the Sun Devil passing attack outside of Tyson wasn’t extremely expansive as the next two leading receivers were senior and running back Cameron Skattebo (35 catches) and redshirt junior tight end Chamon Metayer (28 catches), though they were named to the Big 12 First and Second Team respectively. The next closest wideout to Tyson is senior Xavier Guillory, who finished the season with just 17 catches. It will have to be a replacement in numbers philosophy to fill the void left by the Sun Devils leading receiver.
“Everybody has to step up,” graduate receiver Melquan Stovall said. “(It’s hard) when we lose a guy like that, somebody that’s very productive. Everybody in the (receivers) room has to step up and give the best effort that they can no matter where they’re asked to play.”
The newest Big 12 coach of the year in Dillingham will have to find his way past the second longest-tenured coach in the conference and three-time conference coach of the year in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. The last time Campbell led his team to Arlington was in 2020, where he beat Oklahoma to move on to the Fiesta Bowl. He and his team are no strangers to this moment and will pose a stiff challenge as ASU’s last hurdle in a playoff push.
Campbell has long been one of Dillingham’s muses and his program has been one that’s helped inspire the image in which the ASU coach has shaped his own program in the Valley of the Sun. Now, he must beat the Cyclones to continue the Sun Devils’ path forward.
“[Campbell’s] culture and his realness, I think he’s one of the most just real people in the sport,” Dillingham said. “You see the passion, emotion on the sideline like you see it. It’s not fake. It’s real. When I was the [offensive coordinator] at Auburn I had the ability to go study at one program in the country. I had two days, at that time, coach (Gus) Malzahn would let you go and study with the team. The defensive coordinator at Cincinnati (in 2024) was the linebacker coach at Iowa State, and I chose to go visit Iowa State. That was the program that I wanted to study from because I thought that they were overachieving at that time, early in [Campbell’s] career, at a high level, before he had built it up. Now he’s built it up. Now they’re achieving at a high level consistently.”
Offense
Total Offense: 5,071 yards, 422.6 yards/game (5th Big 12), 374 points (7th Big 12)
Passing: 3,096 yards (5th Big 12), 258 yards/game (5th Big 12)
Rushing: 1,975 yards (8th Big 12), 164.6 yards/game (8th Big 12)
Campbell promoted Iowa State tight ends coach Taylor Mouser to offensive coordinator at the start of 2024. Mouser has deployed a multiple offensive scheme, very diverse and balanced in its attack, ranking just above average in the Big 12 in most offensive categories this season.
Redshirt sophomore Rocco Becht leads the Cyclones under center for the second season in a row. In 2023, he was named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year and followed that campaign by ranking fourth in the conference for passing yards with 3,021 in 2024. While his stats don’t put him in any Heisman conversations, Becht excels at the important facet of the game. Winning. The Cyclones have been above .500 in both seasons that Becht has started, and he has a 68% winning percentage at the helm.
“He just makes plays,” ASU defensive coordinator Brian Ward said. “He has a lot of moxie. He is maybe not what everybody else was looking for but the guy’s a winner. The dude was a winner in high school the guy’s a winner at Iowa State. He’s super productive, he knows where to put the football, and he trusts in his receivers. He throws guys open, he anticipates guys in their routes and where they’re going to be open and he sees coverage really well. We’re going to have our hands full.”
Unlike ASU, Becht has two dangerous weapons at his disposal in the passing game. Iowa State boasts two 1,000-yard senior receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins is a 6 foot 4 inch receiver who offers a physical deep threat down the field. He leads the nation in Pro Football Focus overall grade (87.6) and ranks second in first-down pickups (57) among wide receivers.
He also leads the Cyclones in all receiving categories with 80 catches, 1,068 yards and nine touchdowns. Neither of ASU’s starting corners, sophomore Keith Abney or redshirt sophomore Javan Robinson, are listed over six feet tall, so Iowa State will look at exploiting size mismatches on the outside.
Noel is a smaller speedy receiver who carves defenses apart underneath and is dangerous after the catch averaging 15.1 yards per catch. He’s troubled defenses all year to the tune of 67 catches, 1,013 yards, and six touchdowns. Abney and Robinson will both have to carry their weight in defensive production to limit the Cyclones’ dangerous duo.
“Both of the corners have to be elite in their technique and the details,” Robinson said “As a defense, you have to be on the lookout for both those guys.”
Like their wide receivers, the Cyclones’ middle-of-the-pack rushing game is primarily a two-party system of sophomore running backs. Both Abu Sama III and Carson Hensen have taken turns starting throughout the while being a speed and power combination. Sama, only 5 foot 11 inches, is the quicker outside running back while Hensen at 6 feet 2 inches and 220 pounds provides the strength in the backfield. Hensen’s 11 rushing touchdowns compared to Sama’s two can be attributed to Mouser’s preference for the bigger back around the goal line but both feature in prominent roles.
Iowa State’s offensive line hasn’t often been a strength of Campbell’s teams, but the Cyclones have leaned on the experience in the group this year. Four of the five starting linemen are seniors and the unit as a whole has 144 career games played combined. The offense is multi-faceted in terms of playmakers and will require the Sun Devis to spread the field with serviceable pass coverage to keep the Cyclone’s danger on the outside at bay. Fundamental football will be key.
“It’s a very system-oriented offense,” Ward said. “They do what they do but they do it in different ways that’s meant to confuse the defense and the eyes of each individual player. They attack the edges really well um with different types of schemes. They have a plan for every defense that they see. We have to be prepared. It’s going to come down to us executing as well or better than them.
Defense
Total Defense: 3,967 yards (4th Big 12), 330.6 yards/game (4th Big 12), 235 points (1st Big 12)
Passing: 1,183 yards (1st Big 12), 156.9 yards/game (1st Big 12)
Rushing: 2,084 yards (14th Big 12), 173.7 yards/game (14th Big 12)
The highlight of this entire team is its secondary. As mentioned before, the Cyclones have the third-ranked pass defense in the country in terms of yards allowed per game. Only No. 6 Ohio State and No. 2 Texas boast better secondary units.
While it’s not a unit completely contingent on interceptions — as it is tied with ASU for second in the conference — but in its lockdown coverage and defensive scheme. Defensive coordinator John Heacock was one of the revolutionaries of the 3-3-5 stack defense that emphasized taking away a lineman from traditional four-man fronts to allocate more players to cover the back end. He’s been considered one of the best defensive minds for much of his nine seasons at the helm of the Cyclones’ defense.
“They present a lot of challenges, (when they’re) dropping eight (players into coverage).” Stovall said. “We have to be able to read the coverages and the different coverages that they play. We have to be able to understand and read them, and be able to, react fast at certain coverages.”
The group is top-five in total interceptions since the start of 2023, and returned much of the same unit from last year. Redshirt sophomore cornerback Jontez Williams and redshirt senior cornerback Darien Porter anchor the outside of the Cyclones’ secondary. Porter is a projected third-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The three players roaming the backline in the unconventional three-safety system are junior Jeremiah Cooper, redshirt junior Malik Verdon and senior Beau Freyler.
The production of this defense lies with its secondary, as Freyler (74) and Verdon (74) are the team’s two leading tacklers, and Porter (4) and Williams (3) have combined for seven of the team’s 14 total picks. Heacock’s experience blended with the overall experience of his secondary and group as a whole has created one of the most feared defenses in the nation. ASU will have to decipher the trickiest secondary they have faced to date without the aid of its best receiver in Tyson.
“You’re talking about a defense that’s been together and talked about for a long time,” ASU offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo said. “(They’ve done) a hell of a job for a long time. [Heacock] has been there a long time, they’ve heard the verbiage they’ve got the packages, they know what’s going on, they know all the checks. These guys do as good a job as anybody we have played. It will be the best defense we’ve played so far.”
The Cyclones’ run defense is significantly more vulnerable than their secondary, ranking among the worst in the nation. They allow the 14th most yards per game on the ground out of 16 teams in their conference, which plays into ASU’s favor. Especially in the absence of a consistent receiver, expect the Sun Devils to rely heavily on Skattebo, a five-time Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week, to exploit the Cyclones’ front seven.
The Cyclones’ 3-3-5 Stack defense is inherently designed to be softer against the run in order to slow down spread passing attacks, but this year they have been especially ineffective in that regard. Their linebacking corps is one of the most inexperienced groups on the roster, with redshirt freshman Rylan Barnes, sophomore Kooper Ebel, and junior Jacob Ellis manning the middle of the defense. Of the three, only Ebel has more than 40 tackles on the season.
Up front, the Cyclones get little to no pocket penetration, ranking dead last in the conference with just 15 sacks all season. Redshirt senior J.R. Singleton leads the team with four sacks. No one else in the group has over two. Despite this, the Sun Devils internally understand the challenge of facing Iowa State’s defense is wholesale. His experience blended with the overall experience of his secondary and group as a whole has created one of the most feared defenses in the nation.
Despite their struggles against the run and a virtually nonexistent pass rush, the vaunted secondary has ascended, shutting down opposing offenses and lifting the Cyclones to the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference. Teams have found success running up and down the field, but points have come at a premium against Campbell’s side. Its 19.6 points-against average is first in the conference and 18th lowest in the country.
ASU will have to find a way through in order to vanquish its last obstacle on its way to a spot in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. For a team that has answered every question posed to it all year, the Cyclones will pose the last query for the Sun Devils to see their response. No matter who’s on the other side, or the stakes at play, ASU knows only one answer is acceptable at this stage of its resurgent season.
Win.
“At the end of the day it’s a football game,” Dillingham said. “ it’s no bigger or no less, just the celebration is bigger and the disappointment is bigger. That’s it. It doesn’t affect the game, it just affects after the game. We have to make sure that we don’t let it affect us.”
