(Photo: Marina Williams/WCSN)
When Arizona State men’s hockey hosted Omaha at Mullett Arena in mid-November, both teams were victims of sluggish starts to their 2024 campaigns. The shorthanded Sun Devils limped into the two-game set with a pedestrian 3-6-1 record, and the Mavericks weren’t in much better shape. After winning the 2024 Ice Breaker Tournament by downing two top-15 teams — Massachusetts and Minnesota — Omaha dropped its next six games to enter the weekend at 2-6-0.
It’s safe to say a lot has changed for both since that early-season series that ended in a split.
The very next week, ASU swept then-No. 1 Denver in the Mile High City and rode that momentum to a 14-5-1 stretch that featured only one loss in regulation, becoming one of the hottest teams in the country. Omaha’s run after the series in the desert is nothing to scoff at, either, as it’s won 13 of its 19 games leading up to this point.
Both ASU and the Mavericks have been rewarded for their recent success, as they sit at second and third in the National Collegiate Hockey Conference (NCHC) respectively. However, this weekend against Omaha (16-13-1, 12-7-1 NCHC) has massive implications for the No. 12 Sun Devils (18-12-2, 13-8-1 NCHC), as it presents an opportunity to clinch home ice in the NCHC Tournament in its inaugural season in the conference.
“Last time we saw (Omaha), I don’t think they saw nearly our best,” sophomore forward Kyle Smolen said. “We weren’t healthy. We kind of were really struggling to score. Not only do they have some things changed, we have a lot that we have gained from it, too. It’s going to be an exciting series.”
Postseason Implications
ASU’s path to making playoff hockey at Mullett Arena is relatively simple, but let’s first establish the parameters of the NCHC’s point system. Within conference play, a regulation win counts for three points, an overtime/shootout win two, an overtime/shootout loss one and a regulation loss none.
There are five teams — No. 4 Western Michigan (47 points), ASU (44 points), Omaha (38 points), No. 18 North Dakota (37 points) and No. 6 Denver (36 points) — who are still vying for home ice, which is awarded to the conference’s top-four teams. However, compared to all of these teams, the Sun Devils find themselves at a slight disadvantage.
While ASU and No. 20 Colorado College have each played 22 conference games, every other team in the league has played 20, meaning the remaining four teams in the running for home ice have two games in hand on the Sun Devils. The consequence of this is that ASU concludes its regular season a week early and will need to wait to see where it falls in the final standings.
So, what do the Sun Devils need to do to go home Sunday knowing they have home ice locked up? They’ll need to take at least three of six possible points — which can be achieved by one regulation win — from the Omaha series. If they take all six, however, a team picked to finish eighth in the NCHC will essentially lock up the No. 2 spot in the conference standings.
“This is fun,” head coach Greg Powers said. “For us, with everything we’ve gone through as a program to build to where we are at Mullett (Arena), (a) great fanbase, with a league. Playing meaningful hockey at the end of February is what we’ve always strived to do. That’s what we’re doing.”
But the hockey ASU is currently playing means more than only fighting for positioning in its conference tournament; the Sun Devils have their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018-19 on their mind.
The Sun Devils are at No. 16 in the PairWise Rankings, which are used to determine which teams qualify for the postseason. One may think that because of this, ASU will easily make the 16-team tournament; after all, they are one of the 16 best squads in the nation. However, it isn’t that simple, as at No. 16, the Sun Devils are given only a 40% chance to make the tournament by College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix.
Because every conference champion gets an auto-bid, there are always lower-ranked teams that crack the field because they win their league championship, also known as bid-stealers. There are currently two likely bid-stealers for this season: Atlantic Hockey’s Holy Cross (26th PairWise) and the Central Collegiate Hockey Association’s (CCHA) Minnesota State (17th PairWise). However, whoever wins each of those conferences will be viewed as bid-stealers.
The PairWise often works in mysterious ways — just look at ASU dropping one spot after taking four of six possible points against then-No. 3 WMU last weekend — but the reality is none of it matters if they don’t have a good weekend in Nebraska.
The way Powers sees it, if ASU wins the series against Omaha, defends home ice in the NCHC Quarterfinals and makes the semifinals, also known as the first round of the NCHC Frozen Faceoff, it should have a good shout to qualify for the tournament.
“If we go (to Omaha) and take care of business, we will climb, pretty much in every scenario with where the teams are around us,” Powers said. “The margin between No. 16 and No. 11 (in the PairWise) is crazy. But we get to go on the road — you get more PairWise points for winning on the road — and we still control our destiny.
“You go there and have success, we host a home playoff series and then you continue to have success in the playoffs. If we can go take care of business this weekend and then come here and advance to the Frozen Faceoff, I think that by then, we’ll be in really good shape.”
SCOUTING OMAHA
With all of the talk about ASU’s postseason hopes, let’s not forget that Omaha is also very much in the hunt for a home series in the NCHC Playoffs. So, much like ASU, the Mavericks have a ton to play for this weekend, and they’ll do so coming off of their bye week.
Since the calendar flipped from 2024 to 2025, Omaha has only lost three games in regulation, and it’s achieved this despite not having the defensive prowess that has become common under eighth-year head coach Mike Gabinet. This season, the Mavericks’ 2.7 goals against per game are 25th in the nation, but they’re allowing the second-most shots per game (35.3), a glaring weakness that the Sun Devils can exploit.
However, Omaha’s last line of defense is most definitely its best, as it possesses one of college hockey’s premier goaltenders in junior Simon Latkoczy.
A semifinalist for the Mike Richter Award — given to the top netminder in college hockey — Latkoczy has accrued a the most saves in the NCHC (817) by a wide margin along with a 2.64 goals against average and .926 save percentage. The Mavericks’ recent surge has been a collective effort, but there’s no doubt their goaltender has been a key driver.
“(Latkoczy) is arguably the best goalie in the league,” Powers said. “So you’ve got to be able to solve him if you’re going to have success. And the best way to solve great goalies is getting in his eyes and throwing everything on him and really test him.”
Omaha will be without sophomore forward, reigning leading scorer and 2023-24 NCHC All-Rookie Team selection Tanner Ludtke, who Gabinet said is expected to miss the entire season due to injury after only playing in five games. Additionally, it was announced graduate forward Harrison Israels will be sidelined with a lower-body injury sustained two weeks ago.
But even in the absence of two main contributors, there are several names that can step up.
Graduate forward Sam Stange, a transfer from Wisconsin, has led the way with 27 points (12 goals, 15 assists) in 30 games. Fellow graduate transfer forward Brady Risk is just behind him boasting 21 points in as many games, and senior forward Zachary Urdahl is tied for the team-lead in goals with 12.
On defense, the Mavericks are anchored by graduate Nolan Krenzen, who has blocked 37 shots, the most on the team. Junior Jacob Guevin has paced Omaha’s blue line offensively with 17 points in 30 games.
Another area that Omaha has excelled in as the season has progressed has been the power play. Going into game two against WMU almost two weeks ago, the Mavericks had scored on the man-advantage in six straight games and currently boast the 22nd-most effective power play in the country.
“They’ve always had a good power play,” Powers said. “They’re just really well-structured, and they get pucks to the net. It’s not rocket science. They’re pretty simplistic with how they deliver it, about how they go about their business, and it works well for them. It always has.”
Winning a series against the Mavericks is always a tough task, but it’s even more difficult considering how well they play at home. This season, Omaha has gone 9-5 at Baxter Arena and hasn’t lost in its own barn in well over two months. But the Sun Devils will have to end that streak and then some if they intend to stay afloat in the postseason chase.
“Their league play has been really impressive, and they’ve always been good at home,” Powers said. “(I’m) looking forward to a great series. It was a great series here last time.”
