(Photo: Jordan Talley/WCSN)
The long-awaited road to the postseason is finally here for Sun Devil Hockey. For the first time in program history, it has a conference championship trophy to chase and a league title on the line. The National Collegiate Hockey Conference (NCHC) tournament starts this weekend, and No. 12 Arizona State will first have to face Minnesota Duluth.
ASU finished the regular season 19-13-2 and 14-9-1 in conference play. They were off last weekend thanks to a bye week and will now host Minnesota Duluth (13-18-3, 9-13-2 NCHC) in a best-of-three quarterfinal series.
NCHC TOURNAMENT BREAKDOWN
The NCHC tournament breaks down like this: the top eight teams in the conference after the regular season are locked into the postseason, with the top four gaining home-ice advantage. After the conclusion of the final regular season series, the bracket is divided as so: No. 1 hosts No. 8, No. 2 hosts No. 7, No. 3 hosts No. 6, and No. 4 hosts No. 5.
This year that breaks down like this: No. 3 Western Michigan hosts St. Cloud St., ASU hosts UMD, No. 6 Denver hosts Colorado College, and No. 20 Omaha hosts No. 17 North Dakota. The Quarterfinals are played in a best-of-three series, with Sunday being used for the third game if necessary.
After the quarterfinals are over, the four winning teams pack up and head to Minnesota and the Xcel Energy Center for the 2025 NCHC Frozen Faceoff. While in Minnesota, the teams are re-seeded for the semifinal matchups, which take place on Friday, March 21. The two winners play for the championship on Saturday, March 22. The NCHC Champion will get an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament and be placed into a regional site.
All six college hockey conference winners get an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, while the other 10 spots are filled in at large bids — that’s where PairWise Rankings are used. The bracket and teams included are revealed on March 23.
THE PATH FOR ASU:
While there is no set-in-stone way for ASU to make it in, the surefire way is to win the NCHC Tournament. That gives them the coveted automatic bid and doesn’t force them to rely on the PairWise metrics to give them an at-large bid. If they don’t win the conference tournament, all hope is still not lost; it just gets more complicated. If ASU wants a realistic shot to make the postseason in an at-large bid, they need to beat Minnesota Duluth, make it to St. Paul, Minn. and win their semifinal game. If they do that, they have a good shot of making it.
They aren’t definitively out if they make it to St. Paul and lose the semifinal game, but their hopes are low. They would need help from other conference teams to fall out of the top 12-14 in the PairWise. The Sun Devils are currently No. 16 in the PairWise. They need to be in that 12-14 range to be more than likely in the NCAA tournament, however, that can fluctuate. This is because a team can win their conference and still be outside the technical top-16 in the PairWise.
Here is an example: The Atlantic Hockey Association (AHA) tournament semifinal is this weekend (a best-of-three series). Army, who is No. 47 in the PairWise, takes on Holy Cross, who is 25th. Bentley takes on Sacred Heart, and each rank 29th and 21st respectively in the PairWise. One of these four teams will go on to win the AHA, and then they will take one of the NCAA Tournament spots. This happening would change the cut line.
Say Boston College, who is currently 26-6-2 and first in the PairWise, doesn’t win the Hockey East Tournament. Well, they would steal an at-large bid, meaning a team on the cut line is knocked out because BC gets an at-large bid instead of an automatic one, all because a team outside the top 16 in PairWise rankings won their conference and a team inside the top 16 did not. The PairWise will continue to change as games are played, but there will be teams winning their conference who aren’t in the top 16 stealing tournament spots from teams who are.
The only guaranteed way for ASU or any other team to make the NCAA tournament is to win their conference. After that, it is in the hands of PairWise.
According to College Hockey News, before the quarterfinal games, ASU has a 15% chance to make the tournament, a 0.1% chance to get an at-large bid, and a 15% chance to win the NCHC.
“I mean, right now, there’s a chance you could advance with a quarterfinal win,” Powers said. “There’s so many things that could happen still. We’re honestly just focused on trying to win this thing, that’s the honest-to-God truth. We’re trying to win this playoff. We know we can. We’ve beaten everybody in the league. We’re the only team in the NCHC that has a regulation win against everyone in the league.
“There’s two teams in this league that have beaten us in regulation, CC and Omaha, that’s it. So we feel like we’re the best five-on-five team in the league. We feel like what we’ve done, the body of work in coming in second place and playing five-on-five hockey, regulation hockey, we feel like we’re the best team in the league.”
THE SERIES RECAP
The Sun Devils and Bulldogs faced off four times this season, with both teams hosting a home series. UMD came to Tempe in the early stages of December but left little to show from the weekend. The Sun Devils cleaned house in the first game, winning via a final score of 5-3. However, game two was much closer, with a 3-2 overtime win for ASU.
When making the trip to Duluth in mid-February, ASU struggled, dropping the first game 3-2 in overtime and drawing a 3-3 tie in the second. This weekend’s series will now be the fifth, sixth or even seventh (if needed) total meeting between the two NCHC foes this year. ASU is 2-3-1 all-time against UMD.
“Anybody can beat anybody, and you know, all four games are tight, one regulation win between the four,” Powers said. “So we know they’re good. We know they’re going to be coming and playing for their season, just like we are. So we expect a good series. “
SCOUTING ASU (19-13-2, 14-9-1 NCHC)
ASU had this past weekend off, thanks to a bye week after finishing the year on the road against Omaha. ASU went 1-1 in that road series, winning the first game but losing the second.
Freshman forward Cullen Potter saw his three-game point streak come to an end during Saturday’s contest. However, in that stretch, Potter had four goals and one assist for five total points — a good showing from the freshman. Potter was also announced to the NCHC All-Rookie Team this week.
The week of rest has given ASU the advantage of getting healthy and ready for the weekend series.
“I think most importantly, just getting healthy, and healing up some bumps and bruises that we had, and making sure the guys are fresh and ready to go, going into Friday, and they are,” Powers said.
The Sun Devil power play remained potent in Omaha, scoring three times during the series. ASU ranks third in the nation with a power play percentage of 29.1. The man advantage was strong, holding Omaha to 1/9 last weekend. ASU’s penalty kill is tied for 14th best in the nation at 83.7%.
SCOUTING MINNESOTA DULUTH (13-18-3, 9-13-2 NCHC)
The Bulldogs did not have last weekend off. Instead, they finished their weekend with a road split against St. Cloud State. UMD dropped the first game but rallied back to win the second game of the series.
That series also saw the return of senior defenseman Will Francis on Saturday. Francis had been out since Nov. 8 and had announced in early January that he was fighting a return of leukemia.
Duluth also had a player named to the NCHC All-Rookie Team: freshman forward Max Plante. Plante only had an assist last weekend in game one. The freshman has scored seven goals this season — three coming against ASU — and 16 assists for 23 total points.
“I think their strength is they have some young guys up front that are really talented,” Powers said. “The Plante brothers are fantastic players, and they’re just going to continue to get better and better. But they’re kids that when they’re on the ice, you have to be aware every time they’re on the ice. Their captain, (senior forward) Dominic James, is one of the best two-way centers in all of college hockey. He’s played on a world junior team; he’s a draft pick.
“They have the kid on the back end that was on this year’s World Junior team, their goaltender has been on Slovakia’s world junior team, he’s healthy now. He wasn’t healthy when we played them. So they don’t really have any holes. They’re big on the back end. They have two really good lines as their top six. They’re well built, they’re well structured, they’re well coached. They have everything they need to make a playoff run, too.”
UMD comes back to Tempe struggling in the special teams category. The Bulldogs’ power play is converting 21.2%, which is tied for 27th best in the nation, but their penalty kill is only a dismal 73.5%, which puts them tied for 57th in the nation. Duluth is 10-8 all-time in the NCHC Quarterfinals and 15-11 in overall conference postseason.
Puck will drop on this best-of-three NCHC Quarterfinal series on Friday, March 14 at 7 p.m. MST.
