Holiday Bowl preview: ASU and Texas Tech ready to square off in San Diego

(Photo: Allyson Cummings/WCSN)

The National University Holiday Bowl is upon us, and it offers a great opportunity for the Arizona State Sun Devils to put an exclamation point on a terrific season.

ASU will square off against Texas Tech in the annual showcase of Pac-12 and Big 12 schools in San Diego, and the Red Raiders are in a bit of flux right now, losing both their starting quarterback (to transfer) and top assistant coach (to in-state rival TCU) in the last month.

For Arizona State, this game is a chance to put its final marks on what has been a great season in Tempe.  The Sun Devils won the Pac-12 South, beat USC and Wisconsin, figured out how to win crucial road games and blew out Arizona.  A big win in the Holiday Bowl would position the team well heading into the offseason.

Arizona State wins if: they are motivated to win.  Arizona State is a much better team than Texas Tech, especially defensively.  The Red Raiders lost starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who decided to transfer after his true freshman season.  Mayfield was a great story, a walk-on who miraculously won the starting job.  But after he was injured midway through the year, Tech stumbled and lost its final five games.

Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury still hasn’t named a starter for the game, but who starts shouldn’t matter.  The Sun Devils have an aggressive, athletic defense that should be able to make plays against the pass-first, pass-often Air Raid offense that the Red Raiders employ.  If ASU comes out motivated after the disappointing loss in the Pac-12 Championship game, this one could be over quickly.

The Sun Devils are in trouble if: Texas Tech hangs around until halftime.  Arizona State has dominated the first half of games this season, outscoring opponents by 70 in the first quarter and 84 in the second quarter of games.  The third quarter, however, has been a huge disappointment, with the Sun Devils actually trailing by seven points on the year.  If they let the Red Raiders hang around, not only will Tech have some confidence, but they will also have an opportunity to come out and win the third quarter, and if that happens, who knows how the game ends.

Arizona State loses if: the Sun Devils play lazy.  If Arizona State just doesn’t care about playing in the Holiday Bowl, they won’t win.  After all of the talk about championships and the Rose Bowl, and the letdown against Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship game, Arizona State could be over it and give up on the season.  I don’t really see that happening, mostly because Todd Graham and this senior class shouldn’t let it happen, but if it does, look out.  Every year superior teams are run over by less-talented teams in the middle-tier bowl games, and this could be one of those games.

Prediction: Arizona State wins, 55-27.  The Sun Devils should get out to a quick start, even without Marion Grice.  D.J. Foster is going to have lots of room to run, and the Red Raiders lackluster pass rush should allow Taylor Kelly time to find his receivers downfield.  This one is over by halftime, and the defense gives up some second half points while getting some much needed experience for the underclassmen, who will need to step up big time next season.  Arizona State has a ton of momentum going into the offseason, where Todd Graham steals a recruit or two away from bigger programs, on the way to a top 15 class and a top 15 ranking to start 2014.

You can reach this author via email jgalvi1@asu.edu or on twitter @Jason_Galvin

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