ASU’s Unlikely Routes Back To Arlington

(Photo: Courtesy of The State Press)

In 1967, The Beatles sang, “I get by with a little help from my friends.” For No. 20 Arizona State football to make a second consecutive Big 12 title game appearance, it’ll will need the same, as the program doesn’t control its own destiny.

There are three paths for the Sun Devils, and each begins with two essentials, ASU defeating rival Arizona on Friday and one or both of No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU to lose Saturday. In Vegas’ eyes, both upsets are close to improbable, the Red Raiders are a 23.5‑point favorite over West Virginia, while the Cougars are favored by 17.5 against UCF.

Additionally, No. 13 Utah defeating Kansas would put a damper on the Sun Devils’ already slim hopes as Utah’s victory over ASU from Oct. 11 gives the Utes the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage. With all of this in mind, here are the three scenarios that would send the Sun Devils back to the Big 12 championship, and who they’d face:

ASU versus Texas Tech: Sun Devils and Red Raiders win + BYU and Utah loss

With the Big 12 championship set for Dec. 6, it would mark the second meeting in 50 days between ASU and Texas Tech. The two teams played each other on Oct. 18, with the Sun Devils emerging victorious 26-22. That was the Red Raiders’ first and, to this point, has been their only loss of the season.

ASU versus BYU: Sun Devils and Cougars win + Texas Tech and Utah loss

ASU’s win over Texas Tech on Oct. 18 gives the tiebreaker to the Sun Devils over the Red Raiders. And despite losing to Texas Tech, BYU’s résumé against shared foes pushes it past Texas Tech as well.

The Cougars defeated West Virginia, the team Texas Tech loses to in this scenario. This creates a group tiebreaker between the Red Raiders, BYU and ASU in which Texas Tech falls behind. The Sun Devils and Cougars already have wins over the Mountaineers whereas the Red Raiders would not.

Additionally, BYU never played ASU this season so Texas Tech would have two common losses compared to just one for the Cougars. Those results give BYU the stronger mark in the group tiebreaker.

ASU versus Texas Tech: Sun Devils, TCU, Utah and Houston win + Red Raiders and BYU loss

The Big 12’s format includes a strength‑of‑schedule tiebreaker, and that would tilt in ASU’s favor. Three of the Sun Devils’ eight conference opponents, TCU, Utah and BYU factor heavily into that equation. A win by the Horned Frogs, Utes and Cougars boosts the three teams’ combined record, strengthening ASU’s resume.

A loss by both Texas Tech and BYU, paired with those four wins,( would still place the Red Raiders in the championship, as the head-to-head tiebreaker would apply here.