(Photo: Brooke Faber/WCSN)
On the heels of an electrifying comeback victory over UALR, Arizona State heads to the Sweet 16 to take on Florida State in a battle of two of the top 10 teams in the country.
Arizona State (29-5), who was ranked no. 9 in the country in the final AP Top 25 Poll, breezed by an offensively gifted Ohio team in the first Round of 64 behind a dominant game from Katie Hempen, but were unable to find the same flow in the Round of 32 against UALR.
The Sun Devils struggled early, going 6-28 from the floor in the first half and falling behind by nine points at the break, but stormed back behind a 40-point second half to claim a thrilling comeback by a score of 57-54.
This is ASU’s sixth birth in the Sweet 16 in program history, and the first since 2009 when the Sun Devils reached the Elite Eight.
Florida State (31-4), ranked no. 7 in the country in the final AP Top 25 Poll, has built up an impressive resume this season, dropping only one game to an unranked opponent all year when they lost to Washington early on. The Seminoles’ three ranked losses came against no. 3 Notre Dame (twice) and no. 14 North Carolina.
With a team like Notre Dame in the same conference, the fact that FSU didn’t win their regular season or conference tournament championships in no way diminishes their talent level.
The Seminoles are an extremely big and fast team with the athleticism to run the top teams in the country out of the gym on any given night, and the Sun Devils will need to play their best basketball to reach the Elite Eight.
Keys to the Game:
-Be Physical on the Glass
Arizona State has been effective all year at outrebounding larger teams, but this Florida State team might be the toughest test yet. The Seminoles have an average rebounding margin of +12.7 per game, more than double the Sun Devils +5.2.
Sophie Brunner and Kelsey Moos combined for 21 rebounds against the undersized Trojans. Because the Sun Devils give up so much in size to FSU, they’ll need to compensate with extra physicality and strong box-outs.
-Play a Complete Game
The Sun Devils looked amazing in the Round of 64, putting together one of their most impressive all-around performances since early on in Pac-12 play, but struggled to compete in the first half against UALR. Sun Devils other than Promise Amukamara shot 11% from the floor in the first half and needed a 24-8 run over the last nine minutes in addition to a couple of lucky bounces to win the game.
They were able to get away with that kind of performance against the Trojans, but a slow start will be the end for them against a top-tier team like Florida State. The Sun Devils will have to play 40 great minutes of basketball to give themselves the opportunity to move on in the tournament.
-Hold on to the Ball
Arizona State has been sloppier than usual in the NCAA Tournament, turning the ball over 17 times in each of their first two games.
Florida State is a team that will capitalize off of sloppy play, averaging nine steals per game over the course of the season. Short and simple, the Sun Devils need to avoid turnovers and make the most out of every opportunity down the floor in order to maximize their chance to beat the Seminoles.
X-Factor:
As stated earlier, this Florida State is a very big, athletic team that will rebound over just about anybody, so the X-factor in this matchup will absolutely be the Arizona State post players. Brunner was great against UALR and dominated when ASU would have lost with anything less, but Moos, Eliza Normen and especially 6-foot-4 Quinn Dornstauder will need to assert themselves and make their presence known in order to even up the battle down low. Without a solid post presence, the Arizona State half-court offense could wind up looking a lot like the garbage fire we saw in the first half against UALR.
PS: Watch out for Promise Amukamara, as she showed against the Trojans, she isn’t going to let her senior season end without a fight.
Prediction:
Arizona State is 14-9 in the NCAA Tournament under Coach Charli Turner Thorne including trips to the Elite Eight in 2007 and 2009, so Turner Thorne is definitely comfortable in a high-pressure setting.
Florida State is an exceptional team with a bevy of capable players, but they’ve shown that they can be beaten when a team is competitive on the boards and knocks down their shots.
The result of this game will depend entirely on which version of this Sun Devil squad we see in Greensboro, but there’s just something about this team that doesn’t allow them to quit. In an intense and physical matchup, I think that Arizona State will defeat Florida State 62-60 to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2009.
Tip-off is on Friday at 6:30 p.m. in Greensboro, North Carolina, the game will be broadcasted on ESPN2.
