ASU Men’s Basketball: What’s the Sun Devils’ Pac-12 Tournament odds?

(Photo: Ethan Schwager/WCSN)

Ahead of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament in Las Vegas, spirits around Arizona State Men’s Basketball (14-16, 10-10 Pac-12) couldn’t be higher. ASU has won seven of its final eight games and appears to be hitting its peak at the perfect moment, but it’s important to remember how the Sun Devils got to the Sin City.

After an underwhelming and hectic 2020-21 season, ASU head coach Bobby Hurley was forced to build the team from the ground up. The Sun Devils lost two major contributors in Remy Martin, who departed Tempe for Kansas via the transfer portal, and Josh Christopher, who was selected 27th overall in the 2021 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets.

Sophomore forward Marcus Bagley was supposed to join the list of departures, but instead, he pulled his name from the Draft and the transfer portal. Bagley returning to Tempe projected Hurley to have an extra year with the wing and foster a potential first-round talent on his roster.

On paper, the idea seemed perfect for both parties. Bagley would get an additional season to develop his game and Hurley would get to use an NBA talent on a roster that needed it. Unfortunately, the idea never panned out. Injuries limited the 6-foot-8 forward to just three games and left a major hole in the roster.

A Hurley-led team has always consisted of a scoring guard. With Martin out of the picture, Hurley was forced to find a replacement via the transfer portal. The answer was a 6-foot-1 senior guard from Toledo – Marreon Jackson.

The plan was to build the team around Jackson, but Bagley was going to take some of the responsibility. But with his injury, Jackson was quickly elevated to the Sun Devils’ go-to guy. Early on, it seemed like the task was too daunting, but in the final stretch of games, Jackson revealed a wrist injury on his shooting hand was the cause of his struggles.

ASU’s success was tied to Jackson’s success. In the first 15 games of the season, Jackson averaged just 7.5 points per game on 26.9% shooting and 20.3% from behind the arc. The reigning MAC Player of The Year struggled to adjust to his new surroundings, which directly affected ASU’s performance.

But the second half of the season was where Jackson and the Sun Devils shined. Jackson was moved to the bench, but his efficiency increased. In the final 15 games, Jackson averaged 13.1 points on 42.6 percent from the field and 32.3 percent from behind the arc. In addition to the increased scoring, Jackson’s vision improved, resulting in 4.3 assists per game.

The Sun Devils managed to finish the regular season with a 14-16 record, going 10-10 in Pac-12 play. But the more impressive stat was how they closed the year. ASU upset then-No. 3 ranked UCLA in triple overtime and won seven of its final eight games.

ASU will start its tournament journey against the Stanford Cardinal (15-15, 8-12 Pac-12), who it just played in its season finale.

In their first meeting, Stanford narrowly defeated the Sun Devils 79-76. The major reason for ASU’s defeat was the free-throw differential. The Cardinal shot 41 free throws, making 32 of them. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils shot just nine. The difference aggravated Hurley, who made his feelings known post-game. Hurley complained about the officiating, which earned him a one-game suspension and a hefty $20,000 fine.

In their second meeting, free throws played little difference in the outcome of the game. Instead, it was the streakiness of Stanford’s offense.

To start the game, Stanford shot a perfect 4-for-4 from the field. They were led by junior forward Spencer Jones, who made three of the four three-pointers. Jones and the Cardinal quickly cooled off as they shot just 1-for-8 to finish the half and 10-for-26 in the game. While they struggled to shoot threes, ASU attacked the basket. Leading the way was Jackson and junior forward Jalen Graham, who combined for 34 points.

Graham scored most of his 16 points in the paint. The 6-foot-9 forward’s hook shot has become his go-to move. His offensive presence in the paint has helped him tremendously this season, bolstering career-high numbers and earning himself second-team Pac-12 All-Conference honors.

The Sun Devils’ defensive intensity increased in the second half, which propelled them on multiple scoring runs. Jackson, who was named an honoree to the Pac-12 All-Defensive team, contributed to six team steals. His defensive effort got him going on the offensive end by getting easy baskets in transition.

Although ASU has just beaten Stanford, its guards need to stay up for freshman forward Harrison Ingram, the 2021-22 Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. The 6-foot-8 forward presents a presence inside the paint that must be accounted for. In the last two meetings between these teams, Ingram grabbed 10 and nine rebounds, respectively. His presence on the glass could cause problems for ASU and its small-ball lineup.

If the Sun Devils can defeat the Cardinal, their next opponent will be a different animal. Awaiting the victor of the first round will be the No. 1 seeded Arizona Wildcats (28-3, 18-2 Pac-12). The Wildcats have been a top team in the nation and have dominated the NCAA this year. Their 28-win season is impressive, but arguably their play in the Pac-12 has been the highlight of their season. Arizona’s 18 conference wins are the most conference wins in Pac-12 history.

In addition to their historic wins, the Wildcats took home five of the six Pac-12 awards. Sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin was named the Pac-12 Player of The Year, while junior center Christian Koloko won Defensive Player of The Year and Most Improved Player. Sophomore guard Pelle Larson was the Sixth Man of The Year and head coach Tommy Loyd took home Coach of The Year honors.

What makes Arizona so dominant is its length. In its match against Arizona State in Tempe, Loyd dispatched 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Azuolas Tubelis and 7-foot-1 Koloko. Both players owned the paint and overwhelmed Hurley’s counterattack.

To defeat the Wildcats, the Sun Devils will likely have to hope their opponent struggles. In their meeting in Tucson, Arizona had its worse shooting performance of the season. In the first half, the Wildcats shot 7-for-29 from the field and missed all 13 of their shots from deep. What kept them in the game was their ability to shoot free throws, as they went 18-for-21 from the charity stripe. Arizona turned it around in the second half, defeating ASU 67-56.

A victory against Arizona would be an incredible upset and would gift ASU a trip to the semifinals. Their potential opponent is still up in the air as Colorado awaits the victor of the Oregon-Oregon State game.

The Sun Devils’ only guaranteed game will be against the Cardinal, which is slated to tip-off on Wednesday, March 9 at 1 p.m. MST. The victor of that game will face Arizona on Thursday, March 10 at 1 p.m.