ASU Men’s Basketball: Inside the Numbers

(Photo Credit: Alyssa Buruato/WCSN)

The time is fast approaching for Arizona State Men’s Basketball (6-5) to begin their last ride in the Pac-12 conference. They’ve hobbled through non-conference play, equally showing a propensity to come back and win tough games against quality opponents but also lose games to mid-major programs.

As their slightly-above .500 record suggests, duality and inconsistency have marked early returns of Sun Devil Basketball in 2023-24. The statistical rankings in many categories reinforce this sentiment.

In terms of numbers, it’s been a tale of two completely incongruous sides of the court. On one end, head coach Bobby Hurley’s offense has sputtered and faltered out of the gate, ranking in the bottom-third amongst all Division I programs in almost every notable offensive statistic. In the big picture, there are currently 351 men’s Division I basketball programs, and ASU ranks south of 300 in numerous categories.

Effective and consistent buckets have proven to be hard to come by for the Sun Devils so far this season. However, on the other side of the court, Hurley’s group has proven to pitch up a relatively stout defense. They rank in the top 100 for multiple defensive categories, specifically in ones that can initiate fast break opportunities such as steals, blocks, and rebounds. Consequently, fast break points are the only category in which the Sun Devils rank north of the top-100 mark (25th).

Let’s further examine these rankings to see how the numbers suggest ASU has fared so far this season with conference play beginning on Dec. 29 at Stanford.

Offense

Points Per Game: 66.9 (318th)

Field Goal Percentage: 41.03 (311th)

Three-Point Percentage: 29.02 (319th)

Free-Throw Percentage: 62.11 (340th)

Assists Per Game: 12.5 (249th)

Bench Points Per Game: 14.82 (T-323rd)

Fast Break Points Per Game: 16 (T-25th)

Three Pointers Per Game: 5.9 (302nd)

Turnovers Per Game: 11.4 (97th)

Synopsis

The Sun Devils have rarely wagered their team success on the prowess of their offense this season, as scoring has been hard to come by, to say the least. In both scoring output (total points per game) and scoring efficiency (all shooting percentages), they rank in the bottom-50 of all Division I teams.

One plausible cause for this is the lack of ball movement in the offense. ASU’s half-court possessions usually consist of a few top-of-the-arc passes into an isolation battle to try and score a tough bucket. This is evidenced by their measly 12.5 assists per game, which ranks them 249th in the nation.

While they have players capable of creating their points, relying on isolation scoring without many off-ball actions and sets doesn’t usually constitute an efficient and effective offense. The scoring setbacks don’t end with the lack of ball movement and set plays, however. Even when the squad does find players in spots to score, the conversion has proven to be a struggle for ASU — the team shoots 44.4 percent on assisted shots at the rim and 37.5 percent on assisted two-point jumpers according to Hoop-Math.

Despite the half-court offensive drawbacks when the Sun Devils speed up the game, they become formidable foes for any opponent when they increase the tempo, as their 16 points per game on the fast break is good for 25th in the nation. Their relentless defensive pressure allows them to have the space to fly in transition.

Junior point guard and leading scorer Frankie Collins often champions the break, using his quickness to outrace opponents down the floor for easy baskets. He also shows a willingness to make an extra pass — Collins leads the team in assists per game — on the break, incentivizing his teammates to match him step by step down the floor with the promise of an open basket at the end.

Going into Pac-12 play, ASU will likely continue to outrace their opponents, which may find them some temporary success. However, a more consistent half-court offense will need to be established by Hurley’s men to find sustained success in the Conference of Champions.

Defense

Points Per Game Allowed: 69.5 (141st)

Opponent Field Goal Percentage: 41.23 (101st)

Opponent Three Point Percentage: 30.2 (83rd)

Rebounds Per Game: 27.36 (T-87th)

Steals Per Game: 8.5 (T- 61st)

Blocks Per Game: 3.7 (T-143rd)

Turnovers Forced Per Game: 14.27 (73rd)

Fouls Per Game: 14.9 (50th)

Synopsis

While scoring has proven to be arduous thus far in Tempe, ASU has been able to bank on a particularly stingy defense. The hallmark of their defensive scheme has been their diamond press, deployed in critical situations by Hurley multiple times this season. Almost any time the Sun Devils have felt a game slipping from a recoverable distance, they’ve resorted to increasing the pressure on their opponent. Their pressing scheme consists of multiple parts that help generate easy turnovers.

At the top, graduate big Alonzo Gaffney uses his length — standing 6 feet 9 inches tall — to hound the opposing inbounder, significantly decreasing the space in which to pass in the ball. Behind him, Collins plays a free safety role, ready to intercept any pass that makes it through. This is a role he excels at, considering his three steals a game is fifth best in the country.

Collins is flanked by two other players applying high pressure in the opposing backcourt, and the diamond has often been anchored by junior big man Bryant Selebangue sitting at the basket at the other end. Should the high press be broken, he is the last line of defense to stop easy baskets, often being the only Sun Devil in the defensive half of the court when they are in this alignment.

But with the introduction of new transfer redshirt junior guard Adam Miller, this game plan may change. Miller was awaiting NCAA approval to play as a two-time undergraduate transfer and due to a court ruling was deemed eligible to participate in early December debuting against TCU, on Dec. 16. Miller is a shooter by trade — he went 3-for-7 from deep in his season debut — and was immediately inserted into the starting group in place of Selebnague, remaining in that spot to date.

The lack of two big men and therefore no final rim protection has spurned Hurley from using the diamond in the last few games, but the numbers suggest ASU is at its sparkling best when it is pressing, creating steals and generating easy baskets the other way — and has shown the ability to do so at a high level

Team

Winning Percentage: 54.5 (T-173rd)

Total Wins: 6 (T-6)

Total Losses: 5 (T-5)

Synopsis

Just a year ago the Sun Devils were 11-2 entering conference play and had even spent a week ranked in the top 25. Optimism was abound for the team as they began their journey to earning themselves a spot in March Madness. However, they then sputtered to an 11-9 conference record which nearly left them out of postseason play, condemning them to a play-in against Nevada.

This year, their non-conference play may not have inspired the same level of optimism, as ASU is now sitting at 6-4 before their last chance to make an impression in the dying Pac-12. For the Sun Devils to improve their record and make an everlasting impression on the conference, they will have to improve their offensive production tenfold while maintaining their near top-100 ranked defense.