ASU Football roundtable

(Photo: Courtney Pedroza/WCSN)

After three games, Arizona State football fans have learned basically one thing for sure about the team they cheer for: The team is not incompetent.

And, perhaps unfortunately, that’s about it. With one of the country’s lightest schedules through the first month of the season – featuring one of the worst teams from the terrible Big Sky, one of the worst teams from the depleted Mountain West, and possibly the worst team in the Pac-12, and rounding it all out with last week’s bye – it’s difficult to have learned anything else with any absolute confidence.

Now it’s time for the Sun Devils’ real schedule to start, beginning with a huge and important test against UCLA this Thursday in Tempe. Especially with the loss of Taylor Kelly, it’s hard to have an idea of what to expect from this team against serious competition.

It’s with that in mind that we gathered our CronkiteSports.com football analysts and reporters together to try to put the pieces together on this football team. What have they seen? What do they expect? In our first football roundtable, we’ll give you all the angles, and try to predict what’s coming next.

– Cuyler Meade

 

Q: What has surprised you about this team after three games?

Adam Stites: Really not much has been that surprising as ASU has essentially dominated three teams they should have dominated. However, the lackluster special teams has been worthy of some raised eyebrows. After the 2013 Holiday Bowl, Todd Graham made it clear that special teams would be an emphasis and it certainly has been in the last month of practice.

That hasn’t been apparent on the field, though. Granted, they haven’t had a single chance at a kick return, as all 12 opposing kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks, but the punt returns have been subpar and the coverage units have allowed some big returns.

Jacob Garcia: ASU has taken care of business in its first three games, and honestly, that was expected. So from an overall perspective, not much has surprised me. But going a bit deeper, the production from the offense has actually exceeded my expectations. We all knew that it would be the strength of the team, but I would have never guessed that DJ Foster would be accruing yards at such an insane pace and rank third in the country in rushing.

The offensive line has imposed its will, and Jaelen Strong has looked deserving of being a first round pick in the 2015 draft. Maybe this is due to the cupcake first three games, but ranking 23^rd in all of college football in offensive efficiency (a metric that measures a team’s schedule-adjusted scoring margin) shows that ASU can sustain its elite offensive performances.

Matthew Harden: Kalen Ballage can’t get any playing time. Todd Graham has said at times he would like to have more of a power running game this season, yet Ballage, the 6-3, 205-pound monster who ran full speed into an offensive lineman and didn’t flinch while the lineman went flying, is not playing much.

Part of this could be because he is young. Part of this could be because D.J. Foster is out there looking like Percy Harvin 2.0. But still, if Graham wants a power run game, shouldn’t he use a power running back? The first three games against weak opponents would have been the best time to get Ballage in and integrate him into the offense.

 

Q: What are the biggest questions you think still need to be answered before we have a good feel for what this team can do?

AS: The question for now has to be whether or not the Sun Devils will be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks in the Pac-12. Graham has continued to shuffle the defensive lineup and I honestly believe he’s getting closer to finding a formula that can get to the quarterback, but the pass rush was underwhelming in the first three games of the season. With a triple option at New Mexico and a Colorado offense that didn’t give ASU’s defense many chances to rush, it’s possible that we haven’t yet seen the best of the defensive line, but that’s a question that still needs to be answered.

JG: Is Mike Bercovici really as talented and as prepared as the coaching staff says he is?

Bercovici was rated the No. 7 quarterback in the nation coming out of high school and much of that ranking was based on his rocket-launcher arm. Yet in his abbreviated collegiate action, Bercovici has averaged only 4.7 yards per attempt. So obviously, that arm strength has yet to materialize in an actual game. The coaching staff also raves about his understanding of the playbook and his mastery of offensive schemes, but all of that will mean little when he is faced with the blistering speed of the Division I level of play.

Foot injuries linger, and even though everyone remains optimistic that Taylor Kelly will be back in time to face Stanford, my guess is that he does not. Aside from the obvious physical constraints, there is a mental aspect of recovering from any injury, but a foot injury in particular. Kelly will have to have full confidence in his ability to plant off of that injured foot and in his ability to make uninhibited sharp cuts in order to make it back by that game. Since I do not see that happening, Bercovici will have a lot of questions to answer in the coming weeks.

MH: How will the Sun Devils do without Taylor Kelly?

The games against UCLA and USC will tell everyone how good the rest of this team really is.  Everyone knows how good Kelly is but now he’s out for the UCLA game. The Sun Devils will need everyone to step up- offensively and defensively- against the Bruins in order to win.

After a bye week, ASU travels to play USC in Los Angeles. Taylor Kelly may be back for that game but will he play as well as we are used to seeing him? Foot injuries tend to nag long after a player is medically cleared to play. His balance when throwing and his ability to run could be severely limited forcing other players to make plays in a hostile environment. If Kelly even plays.

 

Q: What are your biggest concerns about this team?

AS: Aside from the pass rush, the lack of alternate options on the offense is something that opposing defenses could take advantage of. Everyone knows D.J. Foster and Jaelen Strong are dynamic weapons, but the rest of the offense, particularly the receivers, need to show they can threaten as well. Otherwise defenses will sell out to stop Foster and Strong without respecting the other weapons.

JG: That the defensive line will not put enough pressure on the opposing quarterback, and thus expose the inexperience amongst the linebacker and cornerback corps. Tashon Smallwood has been nonexistent, not registering a single tackle, let alone a sack in the first three games. Edmond Boateng has not been much better rushing from the Devilbacker position. This puts extra stress on a linebacker group that features true freshman DJ Calhoun and true freshman Christian Sam (filling in at SPUR linebacker until Laiu Moeakiola is recovered from a shoulder injury), and a cornerback group that has the inexperienced group of Armand Perry, Kweishi Brown and Solomon Means all splitting time. The lack of pressure put on the opposing quarterback has a ripple effect on the entire defense, and it will definitely be exposed once elite competition comes to town.

MH: Can the Sun Devils develop a pressure package that does not require guys from the second or third levels to blitz?

The Sun Devil defensive front can’t pass rush without a blitz. The secondary has held it’s own so far but they have not faced talented receiving corps like USC or Stanford, when they’re going to need as many guys in coverage as possible. If the Sun Devils cannot get pressure with their front four, they’re going to face an almost impossible decision: Blitz and attempt to cover guys like Ty Montgomery and Nelson Agholor one-one-one with inexperienced corners, or don’t blitz and let Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler and others stand in the pocket all day.

 

Q: Which players need to step up most for this team to be successful in the upcoming stretch of games?

AS: Antonio Longino and De’Marieya Nelson have settled in as the team’s two Devil-backers and will be highlighted as the premier pass rushers in the ASU defense. With a three-game stretch of UCLA, USC and Stanford on the way, the Sun Devils will need to see a pass rush from the Devil-backer position, as the ASU defense just doesn’t quite gel otherwise.

JG: This question got much tougher with Taylor Kelly out with a foot injury. The obvious answer is Mike Bercovici, who by far and away will always have the most impact on a game just because he touches the ball every offensive play. But since I already talked about him, I will submit DJ Foster and the entire offensive line as my answer.

It is not like either party has not been “stepping up” in the first three games, but their performances will be even more critical in the coming weeks to dilute and mask the repercussions of having a backup quarterback under center.

MH: Antonio Longino and Jaelen Strong.

Longino has been the best defender so far to line up at devilbacker but he is going to need to step up his production. I know I’m turning into a broken record but the Sun Devils need to find a pass rush. Playing football without a pass rush is like driving a car with a flat tire; you can do it, but the odds of it ending well are slim.

Strong needs to step up and be a beast in every game. He had a great season in 2013 statistically but disappeared in some games. Obviously defenses will be focusing on him this year but being the best in the country means doing things others cannot, whether it’s going full Megatron and high-pointing the ball in double-coverage or running routes that get him open. With D.J. Foster going off and commanding a lot of attention from the defense, Jaelen Strong needs to find a way to produce, no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Q: What changes do you hope to see compared to how the team played against tough teams last season to this season?

AS: The Sun Devils offensive line is bigger and stronger than it was in 2013 and they’ve raved about it being a strength. Well this is the time when that should be on display. Win the battles in the trenches and blast opposing defensive lines off the ball. We all know D.J. Foster can take advantage of cracks in the opposing defenses so make them open up.

JG: I attribute the difference between how Sun Devils performed against higher-caliber teams and lesser-caliber teams in 2013 to a difference in mindsets. I truly believe that ASU did not expect to beat Stanford in their first matchup, and it showed with a downright atrocious first half. When the team realized that they could actually compete with the Cardinal, the momentum shifted.

This season, the Sun Devils have every reason to believe that they cannot compete with the elite. Backup quarterback, inexperienced defense—there are plenty of excuses out there.

But perhaps Taylor Kelly is not as critical as everyone perceived. Perhaps DJ Foster, Jaelen Strong and a monster offensive line are enough. (Full disclosure: I think Kelly is vital to the Sun Devil offense but I am simply offering a possible viewpoint others may have). Perhaps the defense can feed off turnovers and stymy an elite offense. The fact is that ASU has the talent to compete with Stanford, UCLA, USC and Notre Dame. I want the team to act like it.

MH: The Sun Devils need to a find a way to score some points in the first half against tough teams and either lead or be close at the break. In their two best wins last season, the Sun Devils trailed Wisconsin by one point at the half, and led UCLA 35-13 at halftime.

In their four losses, the Sun Devils gave up 24 or more points in the first half of each game and trailed by double digits at halftime. They also seemed to give up easily after going down early, making comebacks nearly impossible.

That was with a healthy Taylor Kelly and a great defense. This year, it may be even easier for this young team to quit when things get tough. Graham and the coaching staff need to keep the players focused when things are not going well.

Q: What newcomer do you think has made the biggest impact so far, and what newcomer do you think will be the answer to that question by the end of the season?

AS: So far it’s true freshman linebacker D.J. Calhoun, who has really stepped up his play on game days after underwhelming practices in fall camp. In fact, Carlos Mendoza looked to have a strong grasp of the starting Will role, but when Calhoun was forced into action due to injury he thrived in the live action.

The answer to the question could be Kalen Ballage by season’s end though, as the freshman running back will be an important change-of-pace back for D.J. Foster. With bigger, better, faster defenses on the way, the Sun Devils can be creative with their usage of Foster because of the knowledge that they have a strong, traditional running back like Ballage in the backfield.

JG: Right Now: Jordan Simone

Saying Simone is a “newcomer” is a bit of a stretch. He is a redshirt junior who transferred from Washington State after the 2012 season and then redshirted with ASU in 2013. But in terms of seeing game action in a Sun Devil uniform, he is indeed a newcomer.

Simone has spent all of 2014 at the bandit safety position, alternating between starter and backup with James Johnson. The competition has undoubtedly resulted in the highest level of play being squeezed out of both them. That was on full display last week against Colorado, as Simone logged 13 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery and assured his starting position for Week 5 and perhaps beyond.

End of the season: Kalen Ballage

Sample size is everything here, as Ballage has received minimal touches, yet has showed the glimpses of domination necessary to achieve this recognition.

In only 20 touches on the season, Ballage has tallied four touchdowns. For the math geeks out there, that is one touchdown every five touches.

While that rate statistic may take a plunge with a bigger sample size, his counting stats, 57 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards, can only go up. Standing at 6-3 and weighing 205 pounds (more linebacker than running back), Ballage has all the makings of putting up astronomical numbers once he receives more touches.

MH: Right now it’s easily Jordan Simone. The Sun Devils have had some new guys step up and make a play here or there but then they disappear or negate their good plays with bad ones, which is expected with so many young guys and players getting their first legitimate chance to play.

But Simone has steadily gotten better every game and broke out against Colorado with 13 tackles, two tackles for loss, a forced fumble and an interception

At the end of the season, the most impactful newcomer could be one of about 17 different guys. If the trend continues, it will be Tashon Smallwood.

The question is who will have the biggest impact – it does not say anything about positive or negative impact. Right now, Smallwood has zero tackles in three games. He is getting no pressure and is being blocked one-on-one, which opens no holes for other guys to get pressure.

 

Q: Predict the final record.

AS: There’s a lot of pessimism surrounding the Sun Devils from an outside perspective, and it’s understandable given the injury to Taylor Kelly, but he’ll presumably be back for the back half of the schedule which features one winnable game after another. If the Mike Bercovici-led offense can win two out of the next three (assuming he’s the quarterback for all three), that has to be considered a success for ASU

Still, that’ll be a challenge and even when Kelly returns, there are still going to be some tough games. But I’m an optimistic guy and I think there’s enough mental fortitude with this team to win the close ones so I’ll go with 10-2.

JG: 8-4.

The loss of Taylor Kelly proves too costly for the Sun Devils to match UCLA, USC and Stanford, and the Sun Devils drop all three of those games. It is tough to pinpoint the other loss for the Sun Devils, but I expect there will be one either against Notre Dame in Tempe or at Oregon State. If Taylor Kelly returns to full form it is a different story, but foot injuries worry me.

MH: With Taylor Kelly out it looks more and more like the ASU will go 8-4 or even 7-5. Before the season started, I wrote the Sun Devils would lose to UCLA, USC, Stanford and Oregon State with Kelly in the lineup. Now, Kelly is out for at least the UCLA game and the Sun Devils will turn to another untested player in Mike Bercovici. Even if Kelly comes back, he may not be the same player.

I also would not be surprised if ASU loses to Notre Dame. Everett Golson has been playing well, completing 65 percent of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions this season, which does not bode well for ASU’s young defense, especially if they cannot develop a pass rush.

I’m going to stick with 8-4 however. The Sun Devils have too much talent to lose to every good team they play this year.

 

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