ASU Football: Previewing a pivotal Territorial Cup

(Photo: Nicholas Badders/WCSN)

Phil Bennett had to think a minute.

When was the first time he heard Khalil Tate’s name?

Tate, Arizona’s starting quarterback, is now a household name around the state and in many parts of the country. But his rise has been a recent phenomenon. Not even the defensive coordinator of his rival school knew of him until…

“After the Colorado game,” Bennett said, referencing Tate’s first start back during the first weekend of October. “I still remember, I think someone told me he averaged 40-something yards a carry [on touchdowns]. I thought, ‘What the hell?’”

Then, Arizona State’s defensive coordinator gave the least controversial two words of his entire press conference:

“He’s talented.”

The question now is if the Wildcats sophomore quarterback is talented enough to guide his team past their rivals, on the road, in the 91st edition of the Grand Canyon State’s premier college football rivalry?

Scouting the Wildcats

“TALENTED” KHALIL TATE

Since the beginning of October, few players in the country — let alone the Pac-12 — have been as electrifying as Tate. On October 7, the Wildcats were 2-2 and still the favorites to finish last in the conference’s South division. But then Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez put the ball in Tate’s hands and watched him rumble for a jaw-dropping 327 yards on just 14 carries against the Buffaloes. It was good for a 23.4 yards per attempt and helped the Wildcats outlast Colorado, 45-42, for their first of what-is-now 5 conference wins.

The next week, he did it again: 230 rushing yards on 15 carries in a 47-30 win over UCLA.

Not until last week’s loss at Oregon had Tate gained less than 137 yards rushing in a game. In five of his seven starts, he has has at least one carry of 50-or-more yards.

His Pac-12 rushing ranks: No. 1 in yards per carry (10.6 — next closest is Bryce Love’s 8.8). No. 2 in yards per game (147.2). No. 5 in total rushing yards (1325, despite barely playing in the season’s opening four weeks).

Though he hasn’t had to throw much (Tate averages just under 19 passing attempts per game in his starts) he has been fairly accurate when putting the ball in the air, entering Saturday’s season finale with a 59.3 completion percentage.

“He’s a complete package,” ASU coach Todd Graham said. “He’s got a lot of challenges and you have to be very adaptive to what our guys can execute to make sure you keep him contained.”

OTHER OPTIONS ON THE GROUND

Besides Tate, Arizona has four other players with at least 300 yards rushing this season. Leading that pack is freshman running back J.J. Taylor. He has 754 rushing yards this season, is averaging better than 6 yards per carry and has scored 6 total touchdowns.

Taylor’s emergence has superseded the production from senior tail back Nick Wilson, though the veteran still has over 500 yards and 6 touchdowns of his own to his name this fall.

Quarterback Brandon Dawkins starred in last year’s Territorial Cup, running for over 180 yards against the Sun Devils’ last November. But he has been relegated to a back-up role behind the upstart Tate and has accounted for just barely over 1000 total yards this season.

SUSPECT DEFENSE

For as good as the Tate-led Arizona offense has been, the Wildcats defense has been equally as unreliable. The team ranks 103rd in the nation in points allowed, allowing over 33 points per game this season.

On three occasions this year, UA has surrendered 300 rushing yards to its opponent. It’s happened twice in the last three weeks in loses at USC and Oregon.

Opposing quarterbacks are completing 62.2 percent of passes on the Wildcat defense as well. But, Arizona has developed a penchant for picking off passes, ranking in the top-10 nationally with 17 intercepted balls this year.

Keys to the Game for ASU

MAKE TATE THROW

Easier said than done. But, when Arizona’s dual threat quarterback has been forced to attempt more than 17 passes this year, the results have been poor.

It has happened twice (again, the USC and Oregon loses) and in those two games, the Inglewood, California product’s numbers plummet: 32-for-66 passing, 305 yards through the air, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.

Tate is not a true pocket passer and has proven to make mistakes when forced to air the ball out consistently. Keeping him contained and heaving up passes will be priority No. 1 for ASU’s defense on Saturday.

CONTROL THE CLOCK

The best way to stop a dynamic player? Keep him on the sidelines.

ASU will have a chance to do that to Tate if the Sun Devils can run the ball. They have done so before, using a methodical ground game to overcome Washington, Utah and Colorado already this year.

As noted above, UA’s run defense is shaky too.

Last year, the Sun Devils rushed for just 120 yards in Tucson, suffering a measly 3.2 yards per carry. Change those numbers this year and ASU might be able to change the outcome of the rivalry game as well.

Things to Watch For

TODD GRAHAM’S JOB

There is a very real possibility that Saturday will be Todd Graham’s final game in charge of the Sun Devils. Losing to the Wildcats would almost certainly be the kiss of death to Graham’s six-year stay in Tempe.

This rivalry has seen high stakes in recent years, from bowl berths to division championships on the line. But never before has either Graham or Rodriguez (who also arrived in the state in 2012) been so close to termination.

DAY GAME AT SUN DEVIL STADIUM

For the first and only time this season, ASU will be playing a home day game when the Territorial Cup kicks off at 2:30 p.m. on Saturday.

During Graham’s tenure, the Sun Devils are 6-1 in home day games (kickoffs before 5 p.m.) including a 52-37 Territorial Cup win under the sun in 2015.

Prediction

Rivalry games are tough to predict. But, ASU’s track record against top rushers in the conference this season has been poor. When facing the other top-5 players in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game ASU is 1-3, its lone win via a come-from-behind victory against Phillip Lindsay and Colorado earlier this month.

The Sun Devils will be playing for their coach, but are still facing an unfavorable matchup.

Final: Arizona 44, ASU 37