ASU Football: Pac-12 South Preview

(Photo: Alli Cline/WCSN)

The Pac-12 Conference has been owned by Oregon and Stanford over the last six seasons. Since conference realignment stretched the conference from 10 teams to 12, thus installing the north and south divisions and a conference championship game, the Ducks and Cardinal have won the conference crown twice each.

The South has a chance to finally break that streak this season as Oregon searches for a new quarterback for the first time in three seasons and Stanford hosts a bevy of new linemen and defensive backs. With that in mind, one of the two will be the likely foe come December 5 in Santa Clara, California.

As a conference, the Pac-12 has gained ground on the vaunted SEC in the realm of college football, and the South in particular has been compared to the SEC West to some capacity.

Nonetheless, the division will be an entertaining group to watch go head-to-head, so, without further ado, a primer on the Pac-12 South:

USC: (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: USC’s offense will go as far as quarterback Cody Kessler goes. After chipping in the quietest 39 touchdowns compared to five interceptions on a 69.7 percent completion rate, all eyes are on him to march the Trojans down the field consistently. His safe play sometimes resulted in taking unnecessary sacks, but given his production, head coach Steve Sarkisian will gladly live with that.

Despite losing Nelson Agholor, USC is anything but short of talent at wide receiver. Highlighting the receiving corps is sophomore JuJu Smith, who garnered Freshman All-American honors last season. Smith, along with junior Darreus Rogers will spearhead a stacked group of targets for Kessler to target this season.

Buck Allen was the workhorse tailback last season, and it’s likely USC will field a committee of running backs until one separates himself from the rest. If senior Tre Madden sustains an injury – which has happened multiple times – the ground game will consist of some combination of junior Justin Davis and a trio of four-star freshmen.

In short, given the amount of experience across the board, this group has the talent, potential and body of work to put up big numbers. Naturally, all eyes will be on Kessler.

Defensive outlook: Without the cloud of NCAA sanctions handcuffing the amount of scholarship players Sarkisian can bring to Los Angeles, the Trojans brought in the No. 1 recruiting class, according to Scout.com.

The class helps the defensive line in particular. Yes, losing defensive end Leonard Williams and linebacker Hayes Pullard to the NFL will hurt given their immense amount of production and leadership, but this is the deepest Trojan defense in years. Last season, the Trojans would fade up front as the game wore on, but five of their normal two-deep are back and more experienced. In particular, senior defensive end Claude Pelon looks to build on last season’s campaign that included six tackles for loss and two-and-a-half sacks, both good for second-best out of the line. Five-star Freshman defensive end Rasheem Green should add depth and talent to a group that struggled to initiate a consistent pass rush.

Last season, most teams tore up the Trojans in the air. With a less-than-stellar pass rush and several freshmen on the field, USC’s secondary racked up a grand total of six interceptions all season. However, those players are now more experienced than run of the mill sophomores, and the talent was evident in flashes throughout the season, and five-star freshman defensive back Iman Marshall adds even more talent to the group.

Overall, this is a stacked group for defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox to work with as well as the deepest group in a few seasons. The Trojans should make strides in all areas.

Key stat: 15 returning starters – One of USC’s flaws last season was the amount of youth that saw significant time on the field last season. Well, that youth can now be seen as experienced, and it’s exactly why the Trojans are so dangerous. If the Kessler-led offense can maximize its weapons at the skill positions and if the team patches up its passing defense, it has every reason to fulfill the hefty preseason expectations.

Best-case: The Trojans were projected to win the Pac-12 South for a reason. A slew of talent, experience and depth has Sarkisian’s boys poised to make a run for the College Football Playoff. Given that a certain Heisman winner isn’t manning the Oregon offense to terrify the South, it’s safe to guess a Pac-12 champion – in this case, the Trojans – could be selected for a Playoff bid.

Worst-case: Given the depth, USC’s floor should be a four-win, underachieving season. If USC’s pass rush can’t improve, and the ground game forces Kessler to play outside his normally steady self, Sarkisian would immediately be in the hottest seat on the west coast.

X-Factor: Claude Pelon showed the potential to create havoc in the backfield last season, and he will be key to USC generating any sort of pass rush to relieve their secondary that was tested all too often last season.

Bold prediction: Tre Madden finds a way to play a full season, therefore becoming the featured tailback. He provides balance and stability to the offense, relieves some pressure off Kessler, and puts up a casual 1,000 yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

Arizona State: (10-3, 6-3 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: Teams normally expect a small setback after losing their starting quarterback and top wide receiver. Arizona State is not a normal team. With the emergence of redshirt senior Mike Bercovici after Taylor Kelly sustained a foot injury early in the season, head coach Todd Graham has little to worry about in regards to who is tossing the pigskin for the Sun Devils. Bercovici tallied 1,445 yards, 12 touchdowns and just four interceptions, two of which came during his first start against UCLA.

Losing Jaelen Strong to the NFL will be an adjustment for the passing game, especially because leading returning receiver Cameron Smith will miss the entire season due to a knee injury. With that in mind, offensive coordinator Mike Norvell has plenty of weapons to play his preferred up-tempo style, particularly running back D.J. Foster, who will line up out wide and in the slot more often this season. Foster racked up 688 receiving yards on 62 catches last season.

To fill in the backfield for Foster, sophomores Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage showed that they are more than capable of spearheading ASU’s rushing attack, and they’ve also shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. The duo combined for 953 rushing yards, and Richard broke out in the Sun Devils’ Sun Bowl victory with two rushing and receiving touchdowns each. New additions such as redshirt junior De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes and freshman Jason Lewis should be in the backfield mix as well.

The skill positions are, at the least, above average in terms of talent, experience and potential. Senior center Nick Kelly headlines an offensive line group that is athletic and experienced, and the interior linemen should provide plenty of protection and running lanes for ASU’s offense to put up high numbers.

Defensive outlook: ASU returns all but two starters from a group that ranked third in the Pac-12 in forced turnovers and red zone defense. Graham’s aggressive play-calling led to a handful of big plays for the opponents, but when the Sun Devils had to buckle down, they were one of the stouter defenses in the conference.

Replacing your sack leader and overall leading tackler, defensive end Marcus Hardison and safety Damarious Randall respectively, is a task not to be taken lightly. However, senior safety Jordan Simone and myriad of more-than-capable players on the front seven will likely fill those holes. The key with this unit is health. When Simone and/or redshirt junior linebacker Laiu Moeakiola went down with injuries, ASU’s defense was much more vulnerable.

With that in mind, ASU is deeper than last season due to the amount of experienced youth and talented freshmen coming in to Tempe. All signs point to another effectively aggressive, blitz-heavy defense for Graham and crew.

Key stat: 74 solo tackles – Jordan Simone is not only a vocal and emotional leader for the ASU defense. He’s also a monster in one-on-one situations. His ability to read the game, study opposing offenses and position himself and his teammates to make plays is uncanny and close to irreplaceable. He has his limits, but he makes up for those with his awareness of the everything happening on the field.

Best-case: ASU has one of the higher ceilings of any team in the South, but their schedule gives little way for any breathing room. After opening against Texas A&M in Houston, the Sun Devils host Cal Poly and New Mexico before welcoming Pac-12 South favorites USC to Tempe. If they come out on top of that game, they essentially control their destiny to make a case for a potential Playoff bid.

Worst-case: The fast start to the schedule could also lend itself to in the other direction for Graham and his team. Injuries messed with the Sun Devils on both sides of the ball, and if that happens again, particularly to Simone and Moeakiola, ASU becomes much more susceptible to being gashed for a big play. At the most, the Sun Devils could lose up to five games.

X-Factor: Redshirt senior wide receiver Devin Lucien was a graduate transfer from UCLA, and he’ll be key to add depth out wide. With Smith out for the season and the loss of Strong, having multiple targets for Bercovici to pick out and spread around will make all the difference.

Bold prediction: Demario Richard will lead the Pac-12 in rushing. He showed plenty of ability and maturity last season as a true freshman, and with Foster moving into a more of a pass catching role, Richard has a chance to build upon an already sturdy foundation. All signs from camp point toward him making a leap.

 

UCLA: (10-3, 6-3 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: Football is a sport in which a single player doesn’t necessarily determine the success of a team. However, that’s the likely case for UCLA, who has the task of deciding who will replace three-year starter and current Green Bay Packer Brett Hundley under center. Head coach Jim Mora Jr. gave the nod to freshman Josh Rosen, but Rosen has yet to complete a pass in college.

The Bruins are loaded at the skill positions, returning five of their top six receivers and their workhorse running back in junior Paul Perkins, who rushed for just under 1,600 yards a season ago. Senior receivers Jordan Payton and Devin Fuller along with sophomore Eldridge Massington teamed up to reign in 120 of 176 completions, so whoever is the Bruins QB1 is, they’ll have all the weapons they need to excel.

Defensive outlook: UCLA’s defensive production did anything but match up with their talent last season. Although the Bruins ranked third in the Pac-12 in scoring defense, they were in the bottom-half in nearly every other defensive statistical category, most notably turnover margin. With a new defensive coordinator in Tom Bradley, UCLA should be able to generate more pressure in all facets. Bradley coached up stalwart defenses from 2005-2011 while he was alongside Joe Paterno at Penn State.

Losing linebacker Eric Kendricks leaves a notable void in the front seven, but well-rounded, two-way star Myles Jack will man the middle of the defense. Last season, Jack accumulated 72 tackles, eight non-sack tackles for loss and deflected several passes as well.

The secondary isn’t as deep as it could be, and if injuries strike that group, plenty of freshmen could see playing time, but with that in mind, UCLA isn’t short of talent. It’s Bradley’s job to maximize that talent.

Key stat: 94.1 percent in the red zone – UCLA was extremely efficient in the red zone, scoring on all but three trips to the final 20 yards, 32 of which ended in a touchdown. Having a dual-threat quarterback in Hundley to go along with his surrounding weapons made coverage hell for opposing defenses, so UCLA will look significantly different depending on who is under center. Taking care of business in the red zone is critical for any team, and the Bruins were the best in the Pac-12 at it a season ago, so if they have a repeat performance, they will be just fine.

Best-case: Rosen is a five-star prospect for a reason. At 6-foot-4, he is as prototype as prototype gets, and with the talent at the skill positions, he’s getting the keys to a Ferrari.

Bradley is known for concocting savage defenses, and with UCLA’s talent, that should be the case once again. The two question marks for the Bruins could very well be filled quickly, which makes them quite a dangerous team in the Pac-12.

Worst-case: Bradley’s success has come in Happy Valley and Morgantown (where he spent the last two seasons as associate head coach), and that’s quite a different vibe than Los Angeles. Football is football anywhere, but there is a chance that Bradley’s magic touch may not come to fruition right away, and UCLA as a whole could turn out to be a team that never reaches anywhere close to its ceiling.

X-Factor: This team will only go as far as Rosen will take them.

Bold prediction: UCLA will beat USC.

 

Arizona: (10-4, 7-2 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: The Wildcats were the epitome of youthfulness last season. Despite not having the greatest talent of any team in the South, they came away as the representatives of the division in the Pac-12 Championship against Oregon. Head coach Rich Rodriguez returns his top players at the skill positions, notably sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon and sophomore running back Nick Wilson.

Solomon had several flashes while throwing for 3,793 yards and 28 touchdowns – both school freshman records.Wilson dashed for 1,375 yards, and Solomon chipped in 543 yards of his own on the ground. Rodriguez’s offense lends itself to athletes working well in space, and that’s exactly what the Wildcats did when they had the chance.

Three of Arizona’s top-five pass catchers are returning, including junior Cayleb Jones, who racked up 1,018 yards on 73 catches.

Despite those players returning, the lingering question comes with the offensive line. Last season, the Wildcats gave up the second-most sacks in the Pac-12, and they lose a pair of three-year starting tackles in Mickey Baucus and Fabbians Ebbele. Cal transfer Freddie Tagaloa hopes to fill in at left tackle, but the real concern is at center. Carter Wood and David Catalano are two former walk-ons, and one of them is likely to emerge as the starter.

Defensive outlook: Reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Scooby Wright III is back, so that is enough of a reason to have some confidence in Arizona’s defense. The junior linebacker accounted for 14 sacks and a whopping 29 tackles for loss, six more than anybody else in the country. For whatever reason, whether it is his intuition, instincts or preparation, Wright is a monster around the ball.

Four defensive backs who were prominent in the Wildcats’ two-deep rotation are gone, so there are concerns about depth. Those who departed accounted for 18 tackles for loss, seven interceptions and 24 breakups. That’s quite the productive quartet. With that in mind, Rich Rod picked up a few JUCO transfers, and 10 defensive backs averaged at least one tackle, so the rotation went deep last season and should be prepared to shoulder more responsibility in this campaign.

Whatever happens in the secondary though, Scooby is still on the team, so that’s scary enough.

Key stat: 98 tackles for loss – Arizona caused havoc in the backfield last season, spearheaded by Wright’s efforts. That number was good enough for 12th in the FBS, and it was key in keeping the secondary from having to gamble all too much. Of course, that type of production and pressure is difficult to replicate, and Arizona seemed to peak against the best of its competition. All things considered, if Wright can come close to his sophomore year of production, Arizona should be in fine shape overall.

Best-case: Youth was written all over Arizona’s season. Rich Rod’s team was uneven from week to week, but when you start a freshman quarterback, freshman running back, and several new faces across the board. They have to be more consistent, and if they are, they can throw a monkey wrench into the top half of the South. Their ability to disrupt an opponent’s rhythm was key to several upsets and a Pac-12 Championship birth.

Worst-case: Arizona has done better in Rodriguez’s first three seasons than many thought, and this is his best group thus far. With that in mind, Solomon has to make the necessary jump to open up the playbook we all know Rich Rod has stored away somewhere. If he instead has a season littered with inconsistency, the rest of the South is much deeper and adept to handle the rest of Arizona on both sides of the ball. There’s a chance that teams will be more successful in containing Wright with a season’s worth of film on the linebacker, and if the Wildcats can’t get into the backfield as much as last season, the secondary is susceptible to being exposed.

X-Factor: Solomon has to make the leap and advance the Wildcat offense this season. His dual-threat ability fits right in with Rodriguez’s offense, despite his arm not being the strongest. The Wildcats can’t afford for Solomon to have a dip in performance, especially considering they lack a bye week this season. Arizona has averaged 8.7 wins in the last three seasons, so I’d expect a similar performance this season.

Bold prediction: Scooby Wright III will follow Arizona State’s Will Sutton in winning back-to-back Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year awards. His instincts and ability to slip blockers is uniquely special at this level, and given the amount of emphasis the passing games of teams in the South have in their offenses, he’ll be key in taming the likes of Cody Kessler and Mike Bercovici.

 

Utah: (9-4, 5-4 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: To put it kindly, Utah was unspectacular on offense. To put it in true context, Utah was anemic on offense, ranking dead-last in the Pac-12 in total offense. On the brightside, senior quarterback Travis Wilson threw just five interceptions, 11 less than his sophomore season, and he tossed 18 touchdowns along the way. He wasn’t asked to do too much, and essentially turned into a game-managing robot under center.

Newly promoted co-offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick is looking for Wilson to complete a higher percentage than the 60-percent clip he posted last season.

The Utes return senior wide receiver Kenneth Scott, and given he stays healthy, he should relieve senior running back Devonte Booker of the workload he carried a year ago. Utah’s offense might be as vanilla as last season if an explosive playmaker doesn’t emerge.

Defensive outlook: The Utes rode the second-best defense in the Pac-12 to nine wins in 2014, and that’ll likely be the case once again this season. However, defensive coordinator John Pease has the tall task of replacing defensive end Nate Orchard’s team-high 18.5 sacks.

Junior end Hunter Dimick will look to build upon his 10-sack campaign, and generating a pass rush will be key for Utah to maintain its bend-but-don’t-break with a mean streak defense. Utah wasn’t shy about making big hits, but the secondary is the most vulnerable group coming into the fall.

Utah loses its top three cornerbacks, but the group is still rich in relatively untested talent. Nonetheless, with a pass rush lacking its sack-leader, having questions in the secondary would be uncomfortable for any defensive coordinator.

Key stat: 5-2 in one possession games – Utah was magical in tight games a season ago. With a strong defense and an offense keen on playing it safe, scores occasionally failed to give Utah justice in how they won the game. Naturally, their style won’t play well into blowouts, but they found ways to win regardless.

Beyond numbers, making a mark winning tight games is a fine trend. However, it is hard to imagine maintaining that type of identity over the course of multiple seasons, especially considering the changes at the coordinator positions that Utah has at the moment. Something will have to change, or Utah could end up on the wrong side of that statistic.

Best-case: Travis Wilson is not an awful quarterback. In fact, if he avoids the midseason slump that included injury battles, he could becomes a relatively safe, efficient one. Pair that with experience at the skill positions, and Utah’s offense can only go up compared to last season. The defense has depth and talent as well, but the experience in the secondary is a concern. All that in mind, this is a strong team in its fifth season out of the Mountain West Conference, and becoming self-sustaining is a tangible benchmark now.

Worst-case: Playing so many close games is invigorating, but Utah came out on top of plenty more than numbers say they should’ve. The calling card was the defense, but with the up-and-coming defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake now holding the same position at Oregon State, it is fair to doubt how Utah’s defense will look this season.

X-Factor: Booker showcased his ability to break for big plays last season, and if Utah can find more balance, they can utilize Booker’s ability to catch out of the backfield much more efficiently than they did a year ago.

Bold prediction: I don’t know how bold this prediction is, but given that Utah got away with winning so many close games a season ago, and considering the turnover in the coaching staff, Utah could be headed toward a .500 season.

 

Colorado: (2-10, 0-9 Pac-12, last season)

Offensive outlook: Colorado was actually pretty solid on offense last season, ranking 40th in the country. Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau tossed 28 touchdowns while completing two-thirds of his passes. However, he still showed signs of a young quarterback, throwing 15 interceptions, eight of which came in five games against ranked opponents. That can be taken in multiple directions, but Liufau has shown the ability to succeed in offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren’s quick-passing offense.

Liufau is also treated by the return of leading receiver senior Nelson Spruce, who snatched 106 receptions a year ago. He is a nice possession-style target for Liufau, but the Buffaloes sorely missed a big-play threat. Liufau averaged just less than 10 yards per completion, and if Colorado wants to make the next step offensively, big plays are a necessity.

Senior running back Christian Powell will provide decent balance to the offense if – and it’s a big if – the offensive line can perform much better throughout the season. Too often, running lanes remained clogged. The line will feature two new guards, so maybe a changeup of sorts is what the front-five needed.

Defensive outlook: Newly hired defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt looks to turnaround one of the worst defenses in the power five conferences, and he might just have the tools to get that process off to the right foot this season. He coached up solid defenses during his time as the head coach at South Florida from 1996-2009, and the last four years, he was on Jim Harbaugh’s staff for the San Francisco 49ers.

The growing pains will be prominent as he installs his 3-4 system. Safety Jered Bell will be an immense help in the secondary after being awarded a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA, and the rest of the defensive backs should be the most solid group on that side of the ball.

That being said, plenty of Colorado’s defenders spent time on the sidelines with injury, and in the Pac-12, a carousel of defenders lacking consistency is never an ideal situation. Expect progress from this unit, but not too much.

Key stat: 39.0 points per game by opponents – Colorado’s defense was flat out awful. Even with the improving offensive unit, the Buffaloes posted 56 points and still lost by three. The unit was rough, but if Leavitt can muster up any sort of turnaround right away, Colorado will already look much better than a season ago.

Best-case: Given the injuries Colorado endured last season, making the most of a fully healthy squad is a priority, and the month of September lends itself to favorable results for the team. The Buffaloes could very well make it out of its pre-Pac-12 schedule 4-0, already doubling last season’s win-total. Colorado lost four of its conference games by five or fewer points, so despite the poor record, there’s hope to be had.

Worst-case: Moral victories only last so long. Another subpar performance could put head coach Mike MacIntyre on the hot seat, undeservedly so. The team is making progress, but he needs that progress to show up in the win column here shortly.

X-Factor: As great of a possession receiver Spruce is, Colorado needs a vertical option. Sophomore speedster Shay Fields could be that guy. Last season, he hauled in passes, but Liufau will need more from him if Colorado hopes to make a jump in an offense that showed signs of positive movement.

Bold prediction: A favorable early schedule, new faces on defense and an offense that should keep improving will land Colorado a six-win season.

You can reach Zac Pacleb on Twitter @ZacPacleb or via email at zacpacleb@gmail.com.

 

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