(Photo: Scotty Bara/WCSN)
One of college football’s greatest preseason mysteries falls in the Pac-12 North. With four of the six teams replacing their starting quarterbacks, nobody knows what is going to happen by the time conference play is in full swing.
Oregon is no doubt the favorite to win the division once again, but after that you could make a case to put anybody else anywhere in the standings.
This, college football fans, is the beauty of college football. Every game matters, and if you love unpredictable football, watch the six teams from the north this year. They (excluding Oregon) have nothing to lose, but a whole lot to gain.
Cal (5-7, 3-6 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: This year, to nobody’s surprise, is going to be all about junior quarterback Jared Goff. Coming off of a year where he was second in the conference in passing yards only to Heisman winner Marcus Mariota of Oregon, Goff and his experienced air-raid offense look to take a pretty wide open north division by storm and possibly surprise a lot of people. The team wasn’t just one-dimensional though. They still had the Pac-12’s fifth leading rusher in Daniel Lasco who is entering his senior year, so picking a poison could become a problem for opposing defenses. With all this in mind, Cal is coming off of a season where they had the second highest scoring offense in the conference.
Defensive Outlook: Given their offensive firepower, some would wonder how Cal only won five games last season, and the answer isn’t hard to find. Their second-ranked scoring offense was supported by the conference’s worst scoring defense, giving up 39.8 points per game. They also lost their leading tackler to graduation, but do return one of the more promising young defensive players in the conference in junior linebacker Michael Barton. Barton was the conference’s 17th leading tackler a season ago. According to their preseason depth chart, there are going to be nine upperclassmen on the starting defensive unit, five of which are seniors, so if this experienced unit can give up less than 500 yards per game unlike last year, their offense can do the rest.
Best Case: The more experienced defense could easily have a breakout year, and the offense will almost certainly continue off of what it did last season Despite a tough second half of the season, this whole division is going to be so unpredictable that upsets could happen left and right. If any team from this division is going to be the heartbreaker, it’ll be Cal. Best-case scenario for this team would be to become bowl eligible, and contend for the Pac-12 North
Worst Case: This team has a pretty up for grabs first five games, but after that it only gets harder. The Pac-12 is very top heavy this year and they play the top three south teams in the preseason media poll. Worst-case scenario, the team loses Jared Goff to an injury and the season is an after thought.
Key Stat: Jared Goff threw for 35 touchdowns last season, while Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota threw for 42 in three more games.
Bold Prediction: Jared Goff throws less than seven interceptions and more than 40 touchdowns.
Stanford (8-5, 5-4 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: The Bay Area schools are polar opposites in playing style, but Stanford got the better end of the stick a season ago. They did finish second in the north last year with an 8-5 overall record, but it wasn’t because of their offense. Stanford owned the second worst scoring offense in the entire conference last season. Quarterback Kevin Hogan is in his senior year and the definitive leader of this team, so you can expect much more out of them this year. Although, they will be without one of the most explosive players in the conference a season ago in wide receiver Ty Montgomery, who is now in the NFL.
Defensive Outlook: Defense has been the least of Stanford’s problems the last few seasons, and with half of their defense being seniors there shouldn’t be much of an expected drop off. The Cardinal defense also brings back their leading tackler from a season ago in senior linebacker Blake Martinez. He had the seventh most tackles in the Pac-12 last season with 102. This unit gave up 20 less rush yards per game, and 68.7 less passing yards per game than the next best teams in the Pac-12. But as the Cardinal and all college football fans saw last year, no matter how good your defense is, your offense has to put points on the board in order to contend.
Best Case: If Stanford has a good enough offense behind Hogan to support the always rock solid defense, the Cardinal could find itself finishing inside the top 15 by the end of the season. With their schedule, they have the potential to lose only two to three games, but it all depends on the offensive side of the ball.
Worst Case: It’s a definite possibility that nobody can fill the place of Ty Montgomery on offense, and their scoring numbers could similar to what they had a season ago. Still though, a worst-case scenario for this defense still keeps them in the top three best in the conference statistically.
Key Stat: Of the 17 touchdowns Kevin Hogan threw last season, he only passed for three touchdowns on the road, with the other 14 coming at home.
Bold Prediction: Blake Martinez wins the Pat Tillman defensive player of the year for the Pac-12, and is among the finalists for the Chuck Bednarik Award.
Oregon (13-2, 8-1 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: Obviously the biggest headline for the Ducks’ offense heading into 2015 is replacing their Heisman-winning quarterback from a season ago. After Marcus Mariota declared to enter the NFL Draft and was selected second overall by the Tennessee Titans, the battle to lead one of the most explosive offenses in the country began. Eventually Vernon Adams from Eastern Washington University beat out redshirt junior Jeff Lockie for the job, as announced on August 28th. As anticipated, everything else is looking very Oregon-esque. They are bringing back the defending Pac-12 freshman of the year in running back Royce Freeman, and Byron Marshall is looking to add on to the large impact he has made at the receiver position. While big shoes need to be filled under center, don’t expect this offense to score a whole lot less than they have in the past few years.
Defensive Outlook: The bigger concern for Oregon this season will likely be their defense. Oregon loses safety Erick Dargan who led the team in tackles as well as the entire conference in interceptions last season. Their second leading tackler in linebacker Derrick Malone is also returning. A secondary composed of three sophomores and a junior will have to step up in a season where they will play a lot of teams that love to let the ball fly, such as Washington State, Cal, and USC.
Best Case: If Adams finds a way to put up numbers that are even three-quarters of what Mariota did a season ago, this team should be set. The offense being loaded with talent and explosiveness is a given, and with one quarterback you get Mariota’s understudy, or the other you get one of the more statistically dominant quarterbacks college football has seen the last five years. The Ducks’ three toughest games will come against Michigan State, Arizona State, and USC. If they can find a way to win all those games, the Ducks have as good a shot as anybody in the country at finishing the regular season undefeated, and potentially finding themselves back in the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case: While Adams has been named he starter, he will still have to prove himself. If the wrong decision is made and Oregon loses one of its early games that are all very winnable, they may lose their shot at redemption in the College Football Playoff.
Key Stat: Oregon last season had by far the best turnover margin at +23, the next closest was Arizona State who sat at +14.
Bold Prediction: Adams continues his collegiate success and is a Heisman finalist by the end of the season.
Oregon State (5-7, 2-7 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: The difficulty of providing an offensive outlook for this Beaver squad is as difficult as any other team in the country. They still haven’t decided on a starting quarterback, and their only three options are freshmen. Recently the team announced that in their season opener against Weber State they will run a two-quarterback system with true freshman Seth Collins and redshirt freshman Marcus McMaryion in attempt to eventually narrow down their decision. But to ease the pressure, their entire offensive line is returning as well as their top two receivers from a season ago. Having a guy like senior running back Storm Barrs-Woods in the backfield should help relieve some stress as well
Defensive Outlook: If the starting quarterback isn’t an Oregon State fan’s biggest concern, then the defense most certainly is. The Beavers only return two starters from last season in seniors Larry Scott at cornerback and Jawsha James at defensive end. In a year where the coaching staff is turning over, new defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake has his hands full. Last years’ defensive unit was fourth overall in the Pac-12, and this set of fresh faces has a tough task against Michigan in week two.
Best Case: No matter who ends up starting for the Beavers, replacing Sean Mannion at quarterback (drafted in the third round to the St. Louis Rams) will likely take a step back on offense. That’s not to say that neither of these quarterbacks can perform, but Mannion was one of the best quarterbacks in the conference a season ago. With that being said, Oregon State’s schedule gives them a great opportunity to win six games, and if they can pull a big upset like they did against Arizona State a season ago, they could find themselves to be bowl eligible thanks to the talent surrounding whoever plays quarterback.
Worst Case: The coaching staff claims that they’re using the two quarterbacks in the opening game to see how they respond to a game situation, so if at this point they still aren’t sure about who they want, that could be a concern. Unless a clear number one option comes out of week one, the imbalance in consistency of offense with more than one quarterback could be an issue. With the defense only returning two starters, the offense is going to be expected to perform at a high level. While they may have a moderately high ceiling, the Beavers could also have the lowest basement in the conference.
Key Stat: Barrs-Woods averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season, the most of the top rushers in the conference. Woods had less than half the amount of carries as the conference’s leading rusher, Paul Perkins. If he can play a full season, as opposed to only 10 games, he could make a much greater impact statistically on the field.
Bold Prediction: Woods leads the conference in rushing and finds himself on the all-conference team.
Washington (8-5, 4-5 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: Plain and simple, head coach Chris Petersen’s plate is full. At this point, they do not have a starting quarterback. Cyler Miles’ offseason departure left a big hole in the Washington offense despite his lack of production a season ago. Even though there may have been competition at the quarterback position if he was there or not, an experienced option is now out of the question. Junior Jeff Lindquist, redshirt freshman Kevin Carta-Samuels, and true freshman Jake Browning are competing for the job. As of right now no news has come of who has the upper hand to get the job between, but a report from the Seattle Times said that a decision has been made regarding the starting quarterback but it won’t be announced before the first game. Regardless of who is under center, the Huskies lost three of their biggest threats at receiver in Kasen Williams, and John Ross. This leaves senior receiver Jaydon Mickens to make a lot of plays in the air.
Defensive Outlook: Although the Huskies do need to replace their starting quarterback, they may have bigger holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. Washington had statistically the sixth best defense in the Pac-12 a season ago, which is as average as it can get. What makes this a point of concern? They lost three All-Americans, as well as Marcus Peters, to the NFL draft. While this may be a project for Petersen throughout the year, an exciting player to watch this season will be sophomore safety Budda Baker, who will also likely get touches on the offensive side of the ball.
Best Case: The Huskies’ first four games are very winnable, but their next six are all against teams that could potentially be ranked throughout the season (USC, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, and ASU). If they can get the quarterback situation figured out and pick up the slack for a rebuilding defense, their best-case scenario is 6-6 unless they can pull a huge upset in the middle of the season.
Worst Case: Washington has struggled in the past with their non conference games, so it all depends on how they start their season. With Boise State, Sacramento State, and Utah State being their three nonconference games, losing more than one of these games sets them up for a disastrous start going into their tough six-game stretch following Cal. While it is very much dependent on their start, a seven game losing streak is more possible than most Washington fans will want to believe.
Key Stat: After losing five of their top six tacklers, as well as, cornerback Marcus Peters, the Huskies lose 461 tackles from a season ago. That’s a lot of tackles.
Bold Prediction: In a rebuilding year, Petersen finds a way to lead this undermanned and mostly disregarded Husky team to a bowl game.
Washington State (3-9, 2-7 Pac-12, last season)
Offensive Outlook: Although the task of replacing quarterback Connor Halliday is huge, head coach Mike Leach has an idea of what he’s getting out of sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. Falk stepped in for Halliday after he went down with an injury, and did an adequate job. Even though the Cougars lose their top two receivers from a year ago, Gabe Marks is returning from redshirt season, and Leach’s air-raid offense always finds a way to get the most out of his pass-catchers. The Cougars will likely have a much better year with injuries than they did in 2014, but regardless of how healthy they are they will need to find a way to execute a more effective running game. They were last in the conference in rushing yards per game last year, running for 39.8 a contest, and it wasn’t even close.
Defensive Outlook: First-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has a tough task ahead of him considering the expectations of this team. We know the offense will put number on the board, but the big question for this team is will the defense keep the numbers off? They’re returning four of their top five tacklers, and with four out of six Pac-12 north teams replacing their quarterbacks, this would be the year to try new things in order to figure out the defense. Grinch and a fresh set of coaches on the defensive side are the only hope for the Cougars to potentially shock college football this season.
Best Case: If the new staff on the defensive side figures out how to put together a full season of middle-of-the-pack play, Washington State will win more games than it did last season. Falk has proven to be a legitimate threat at the quarterback position if he can figure out how to not turn the ball over as much, and junior receiver River Cracraft is ready to fill in Vince Mayle’s shoes as the team’s number one receiver. If all goes according to plan, there shouldn’t be much of a drop off on offense, but the defense is still up in the air. If they figure it out, Washington State could win seven games, maybe more if it can pull off a big upset.
Worst Case: Considering nobody knows about how the quarterback play in this division will be this year (besides Stanford’s Kevin Hogan), it is hard to tell how well this defense will perform. Not to mention, their four opponents from the south could potentially end up winning the division. This big of a question mark on defense along with the success (or lack there of) that WSU has had in recent years under Leach could create a lot of rightful pessimism, no matter how bright the future may look. For those reasons, every winnable game on the Cougar’s schedule looks almost equally as losable.
Key Stat: The Cougars only ran for 478 yards all of last season. For some perspective, ASU running back DJ Foster ran for more yards on his own in the first three games of last season.
Bold Prediction: The Cougars will have two receivers with at least 100 receptions, and one of them will be River Cracraft.
