ASU Football: Oregon State Preview

(Photo: Allyson Cummings/WCSN)

The No. 6 Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12 South) head to Corvallis Saturday to take on the Oregon State Beavers (4-5, 1-5 Pac-12 North).

The Sun Devils are riding high coming off one of the best wins in program history after defeating Notre Dame at home. The Beavers are looking to salvage what’s left of their season and hand the Sun Devils their second loss of 2014.

If the Sun Devils win, they will keep pace in the race for Pac-12 South title, a Pac-12 championship game berth and shot at the College Football Playoff. If the Sun Devils lose, all that could slip away.

Snapshot of Oregon State

The Beavers have had a disappointing season. They are 4-5 and the four wins have come against Portland State, Hawaii, San Diego State and Colorado. Those four teams have a combined record of 12-25, with San Diego State being the only team above .500 with a 5-4 record.

The Beavers have lost some close games this season, including a six-point, double-overtime loss to Utah, but they have also been blown out by teams like Stanford and USC.

Quarterback Sean Mannion entered 2014 an extreme long-shot for the Heisman Trophy, but he was widely regarded as one of the best– if the not the best– quarterback prospects for the NFL. Mannion has the ideal size for an NFL quarterback at 6 feet 5 inches tall and 227 pounds, and he as the arm to make any throw.

The problem for Mannion has been the talent around him. Brandin Cooks, his top wide receiver from last season is now in the NFL. Last season, Cooks had 128 catches for 1,730 yards. The Beavers’ number two receiver last season had 52 receptions for 788 yards. With Cooks gone, the other receivers have not stepped up for the Beavers.

This has caused Mannion’s numbers to to fall. Last season Mannion averaged 358 passing yards per game and he threw for 37 touchdowns. in 2014, Mannion is averaging just 270 yards per game and has thrown for only 10 touchdowns in nine games.

The only number to go up for Mannion this season for Mannion is how times he has been sacked. In 2013, he was sacked 25 times in 13 games. Through nine games in 2014, Mannion has already been sacked 28 times. This is one of the other big problems for the Beavers. The offensive line has not played well. Aside from allowing a little over three sacks per game, the Beavers are giving up over six tackles-for-loss per game.

Curiously, the offensive line struggles have not hurt the Beavers’ running game as one might think. The Beavers have three players averaging over six yards per carry and two more averaging over four yards per carry. However, this rushing attack is being negated by the Beaver’s 30.5 percent conversion rate on third down, which is 118th in the country.

The defense has struggled also, giving up 385 total yards and 30 points per game on defense. They are holding opponents under 40 percent on third down attempts, thanks to pretty good pass defense.  But, the Beavers are giving up nearly five yards per rushing attempt and they have given up 20 rushing touchdowns this season, good for 100th in the nation.

Matchup to Watch

Arizona State vs. its own hype.

The Sun Devils have been riding high since the UCLA game. They overcame the loss of Taylor Kelly, conquered their demons by beating Stanford and established themselves on the national stage against Notre Dame. All that has led the Sun Devils to be ranked sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings and in prime position to get into the top four if they can win out.

With all that has happened to both teams, it could be easy for the Sun Devils to overlook this matchup against Oregon State, especially with the rivalry game against Arizona only a few weeks away.

The Sun Devils have the better team and should win this game, but the Beavers have been known to pull off stunners when playing at home. In 2008, Mark Sanchez and the No. 1 USC Trojans travelled to Corvallis to play the Beavers and fell behind 21-0 at halftime. The Trojans lost that game 27-21.

Now, the 2008 Oregon State team was better than this year’s squad but that does not mean they are not capable of knocking off the Sun Devils.

If the Sun Devils do not stay focused and keep the right frame of mind, they could see their playoff hopes vanish. This scenario is improbable but not impossible.

ASU Wins If…

They stay focused and continue to play the way they have during their current winning streak.

ASU Loses If…

They are unfocused and Oregon State puts together its best performance of the season.

Prediction

ASU wins 42-20

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