(Photo: Sun Devil Athletics)
When the Arizona State Sun Devils and Notre Dame Fighting Irish play Saturday, it will have no effect on any conference standings but a huge effect on the playoff rankings.
The Sun Devils (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) are ranked ninth in the most recent College Football Playoff Rankings with the Irish (7-1) right behind at number 10.
With only a few games left in the regular season, both teams need this win to stay alive and have any chance of making the playoff.
Snapshot of Notre Dame
The Irish got off to a fast start this season. Everett Golson, who did not play at all last year because of off-the-field issues, jumped in the Heisman race as he threw for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Irish’s first three games, all victories.
Golson threw his first two interceptions in the third game of the season against Syracuse, but also threw four touchdowns and at one point completed 25 straight passes, leading the Irish to the win.
The last four games for the Irish have all been decided by 10 points or fewer. Their only loss came three weeks ago to the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. The Irish lost 31-27 but had a chance to win the game at the end. Golson’s touchdown pass with 13 seconds remaining was erased by a controversial offensive pass interference penalty against Notre Dame.
Obviously, a four-point loss to the defending national champions, who are ranked second in every major poll, with the defending Heisman trophy winner on the road does not hurt Notre Dame’s chances at making the playoff. What hurts the Irish, is the fact the only two teams they’ve beaten with a .500 record or better are Rice (5-3) and Stanford (5-4).
That’s not to say the Irish are not a good football team. In actuality, the Irish are putting up numbers similar to the Sun Devils, on both offense and defense.
Notre Dame’s offense is averaging 458 total yards — 289 passing, 169 rushing — and 35.4 points per game. ASU’s offense is averaging 484 total yards — 291 passing, 192 rushing — and 33.5 points per game per game.
On defense, the Irish are giving up 359 yard per game — 227 passing, 132 rushing — and 21.6 points. The Sun Devils are giving up 385 yards per game — 204 passing, 181 rushing — and 24.1 points.
The Irish are also plus-two in turnover margin, compared to the Sun Devils’ mark of plus-three.
These comparable numbers should make this a close game, similar to last year’s contest in Arlington when the Notre Dame beat ASU 37-34.
Matchup to Watch
Everett Golson against the Sun Devil blitz.
Golson has only been sacked 14 times all season, mostly because of Notre Dame’s quick passing game and Golson’s mobility.
The Sun Devils like to blitz all the time from everywhere. They are averaging almost three sacks per game, but have been doing a much better job in the past few games of getting pressure on the quarterback. However, none of the quarterbacks the Sun Devils have faced recently have the talent and experience Golson has.
If the Sun Devils pass rush is ineffective, Golson could have a big game similar to the game Brett Hundley had in the Sun Devils’ 35-point loss to UCLA.
True, the Sun Devils have improved by leaps and bounds this season, but so has Golson as a quarterback.
Fun Fact
Since 2007, Notre Dame is 2-7 in the game after playing Navy.
This season, teams playing Navy are 2-6 the game after.
Notre Dame played Navy last week.
ASU Wins If…
The defense can contain Golson, if only a little bit. As stated earlier, Golson is a mobile quarterback who has made vast improvements in his passing game.
Despite Golson’s ability to run, it’s unlikely he will be able to win the game by himself with his legs. The Sun Devils will have to find a way to get pressure while keeping contain, and the secondary cannot get easily sucked in if Golson starts to scramble or else they risk giving up a huge play downfield.
ASU Loses If…
The Sun Devils lose the turnover battle.
Last season the Sun Devils turned the ball over three times while the Irish only turned it over once.
True, Notre Dame’s only turnover was an interception returned for a touchdown but that was Tommy Rees throwing the ball. Rees finished the game with a completion percentage below 50.
Golson is a better quarterback and will make the Sun Devils pay if they give the ball up.
Prediction
ASU 35
Notre Dame 31
