(Photo: Allyson Cummings/WCSN)
An uphill battle begins for the No. 19 Arizona State Sun Devils when the college football season kicks off on Thursday. The Sun Devils are looking to capture a second straight Pac-12 South division title in hopes of winning the conference championship and locking up a spot in college football’s first ever playoff.
Those are pretty lofty goals for a team that is rebuilding the defense and has several key questions on offense. Senior quarterback Taylor Kelly, last year’s leading receiver Jaelen Strong and running back D.J. Foster, who will move from complimentary to feature back, are about the only key pieces in place, with virtually every other position up for grabs.
Although they avoid Oregon – unless both teams make the Pac-12 championship game – a tough conference schedule sandwiched around a visit from Notre Dame could prove troublesome for the Sun Devils if the defense does not mesh quickly.
Here is a quick breakdown of the Sun Devils’ schedule, including predictions on how things will play out.
Weber State Wildcats
Thursday, Aug. 28, 7:30 p.m.
Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Ariz.
Obviously this is a tune-up game the Sun Devils should win easily. The Wildcats do return 14 starters, however, they are from a team that was outscored 497-190 on their way to a 2-10 record and second to last place finish in the Big Sky Conference.
The game may be a snoozer to most fans but it gives head coach Todd Graham a chance to see his team hit somebody other than themselves. Like an NFL preseason game, position battles could be won or lost in this game and an ever-fluctuating depth chart could begin to settle. Like most other non-conference games against FCS opponents, it will not be pretty.
Prediction: ASU wins. By a lot.
New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, Sep. 6, 7 p.m.
University Stadium Albuquerque, N.M.
The Lobos have won 14 games in the last six seasons, seven of those games under Bob Davie who begins his third year in Albuquerque. Last season, the Lobos finished 3-9 but were fourth in the nation in rushing at 308.8 yards per game. An ineffective pass offense generated only 113 yards per game (123rd in the nation) and the defense allowed over 42 points per game (121st).
Dakota Cox, who was voted a freshman All American by the Football Writer’s Association of America last season, returns to the Lobos defense. However, leading rusher Kasey Carrier (seriously, that’s his name) is gone. Quarterbacks Clayton Mitchem and Cole Gautsche, who split time last year, return along with three of the Lobos’ top four wide receivers, none of whom finished last season with more than 300 yards or two touchdowns.
Although the game is in Albuquerque, it should have little to no effect on the the outcome. Arizona State will use this game as another tune-up before conference play begins. The starters will likely play more than in the preceding game to establish rhythm and confidence, but other players could see a lot of time to sort out any remaining position battles.
Prediction: ASU wins big again and continues to settle its depth chart.
Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, Sep. 13, 7 p.m.
Folsom Field Boulder, Colo.
A conference opener at night on the road would generally spell trap game for Arizona State, however, the Sun Devils have beaten the Buffaloes the past three seasons by an average margin of 36.3 points.
Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, the Buffaloes are 8-29 overall and 4-23 in the conference. Colorado sputtered on offense in 2013 and ranked 100th or worse in most defensive categories including yards per game (468) and points allowed per game (38.8), which led them to a 4-8 record. That record is somewhat inflated because two of those wins were against FCS opponents Central Arkansas and Charleston Southern.
The lone bright spot for the Buffaloes last season was receiver Paul Richardson, who was drafted in the second round by the Seattle Seahawks after recording 83 receptions for 1,343 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. Richardson’s departure puts more pressure on sophomore quarterback Sefo Liufau and running backs Christian Powell and Michael Adkins II, who split carries pretty evenly in 2013.
Liufau and company will need to be far more productive if they want to avoid a repeat of last season’s 54-13 beatdown in Tempe. In that game, the Sun Devil defense held the Buffaloes to 269 yards and forced four turnovers and a safety as they raced out to a 47-6 halftime lead. Taylor Kelly’s accuracy was off as he finished only 9/19 but he did finish with 233 passing yards, thanks to Jaelen Strong’s 109 yards on three receptions.
Prediction: Opening Pac-12 play against a premier team at home will cause Colorado to come out excited and aggressive early. However, unless they play perfect and the Sun Devils play with complete apathy, it will be nearly impossible for the Buffaloes to pull the upset.
ASU wins 45-14
No. 7 UCLA Bruins
Thursday, Sep. 25, 7 p.m.
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Ariz.
Arizona State begins a stretch of four games against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 with a visit from UCLA — the favorite to win the Pac-12 South. Both teams have byes the week before which will give the Sun Devils time to prepare for quarterback Brett Hundley who passed for 3,071 and 24 touchdowns and led the Bruins in rushing with 748 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2013. Hundley is on a long list of candidates for the Heisman Trophy and will be looking to use this Thursday night primetime game to make his early case.
Despite Hundley’s talent, there are some questions about this UCLA team. Leading receiver Shaq Evans and sack leader Anthony Barr are now in the NFL and their production will not be easily replaced. Several other questions remain along the defensive line but head coach Jim Mora Jr. has shown an ability to recruit and stockpile talent and put players where they are most effective.
Last year in Pasadena, the Bruins fell behind 35-13 at halftime but nearly completed the comeback, ultimately losing 38-33. Hundley had a decent game passing with 253 yards and two touchdowns but a pick six thrown to lbacker Carl Bradford and only five rushing yards on 17 carries stalled the Bruins’ offense.
On the other side, Taylor Kelly played a great game. He finished with 225 passing yards, 99 rushing yards and two total touchdowns. Kelly will need to be great agin to defeat the Bruins but will be without Marion Grice who recorded 167 total yards of offense in last year’s matchup.
Prediction: This is the first real test for the Sun Devils’ defense and they will struggle to contain Hundley. ASU will either have to blitz six or more guys to pressure Hundley, leaving the secondary exposed, or drop seven or eight men in coverage, giving room to run.
UCLA wins 31-28
No. 15 USC Trojans
Saturday, Oct. 4, Time TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Los Angeles, Calif.
USC may be the most dangerous team in the Pac-12. Last season, they quit on head coach Lane Kiffin, getting him infamously and unceremoniously fired on the team bus after an embarrassing 62-41 loss to ASU, but they still won 10 games. Even though they gave up 62 points and 612 yards of offense, the Trojans scored 41 points of their own and racked up 542 offensive yards against the Sun Devils’ defense.
Steve Sarkisian now steps in as head coach and, as a former offensive coordinator, will do some damage with returning quarterback Cody Kessler, wide receiver Nelson Agholor, and a running back stable that may be the best in the nation. That, combined with a defense that will certainly be better, could spell trouble for the Sun Devils, even though they will have a few extra days to prepare after a Thursday night game against UCLA.
Prediction: This one is going to be a shootout which will hurt ASU’s chances of winning. The Trojans are well equipped to run the ball and the clock, and to score a ton of points. The Trojan defense will focus on containing Kelly and the running game, and bracket Jaelen Strong, forcing someone else on the offense to step up. The question is: Who?
USC wins 35-21
No. 11 Stanford Cardinal
Saturday, Oct. 18, Time TBD
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe Ariz.
After a much needed bye week, the Sun Devils look to avenge last season’s Pac-12 Championship Game loss to Stanford as the Cardinal travel to Tempe. In two games last season the Cardinal outscored the Sun Devils 80-42 and totaled 934 yards of offense — 480 rushing.
Stanford’s leading rusher Tyler Gaffney has moved on to the NFL after 1,709 yards and 21 touchdowns on 330 carries last season. The next leading rusher for the Cardinal was quarterback Kevin Hogan with 355 yards on 84 carries. This seems like it would be a problem, but given Stanford’s recent luck with running backs, as well as, Hogan returning as a dark horse candidate for the Heisman, and top wideout Ty Montgomery coming back, it should not be an issue.
The staple of Stanford’s success in recent years has been defense. Last season, the Cardinal held every opponent under 30 points, including ASU (twice), Oregon, USC, Notre Dame and UCLA. Despite some losses, including linebacker Shayne Skov, the Cardinal defense is loaded with experienced upperclassmen.
Prediction: Stanford is too good of a team and David Shaw is too good of a coach. The Cardinal will be as good or better than last year when they handled ASU twice.
Stanford wins 35-17
No. 25 Washington Huskies
Saturday, Oct. 25, Time TBD
Husky Stadium Seattle, Wash.
Washington is ranked a little high at #25 in the preseason poll and a lot of it has to do with Chris Petersen entering as head coach. Not to say Steve Sarkisian did not leave some talent for Petersen to work with, but quarterback Keith Price, workhorse running back Bishop Sankey, wide receiver Kevin Smith and pass-catching tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins are all gone. That’s basically Washington’s entire offense from 2013.
Petersen will do great things at Washington, but replacing that much talent on offense is hard for any coach, and if quarterback Cyler Miles is as behind as Petersen says he is, this could be a tough year for the Huskies.
Last season in Tempe, the Huskies only mustered 212 yards of offense (with -5 rushing yards). The Sun Devils racked up 585 yards, 314 on the ground on the way to a 53-24 win. Marion Grice had a field day, rushing for 158 yards and two touchdowns, which cover up the fact Jaelen Strong only had seven yards receiving.
Prediction: ASU will come out motivated after three straight losses, especially on defense, and shut down an already struggling Washington offense.
ASU wins 41-10
Utah Utes
Saturday, Nov. 1, Time TBD
Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Ariz.
Last season in Salt Lake City, both teams struggled offensively and ASU needed a late fourth quarter drive to pull out the 20-19 win. Travis Wilson will return as the Utes’ starting quarterback after injuries ended his 2013 season early. If Wilson can stay healthy, he looks to have a tremendous season throwing the ball to wide receiver Dres Anderson, who recorded 1,002 yards on just 53 receptions in 2013.
The loss of first-team All-Pac-12 defensive end Trevor Reilly will be a huge blow for the Utes’ defense, however, the defense overall will be tough with many returning starters like linebackers Jason Whittingham and Jared Norris, and corner Eric Rowe.
With all this talent, and the Sun Devils potentially looking ahead to Notre Dame the following week, Utah could pull the upset and overcome their recent road woes. Utah was 1-4 on the road last season and is 6-11 since joining the Pac-12 in 2011.
Prediction: Utah catches ASU looking ahead in the first half to keep the game close but ASU refocuses and pulls away in the second half.
ASU wins 31-17
No. 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, Nov. 8, Time TBD
Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Ariz.
Notre Dame’s offense is a huge question mark. Quarterback Everett Golson, who helped lead the Irish to the 2012 national championship game returns, as well as, running backs Cam McDaniel and Tarean Folston. Two of Notre Dame’s top four receivers are in the NFL now, including T.J. Jones, who had eight catches for 135 yards and a touchdown in Notre Dame’s 37-34 victory over ASU in Arlington last season.
DeVaris Daniels, who looked to be the new number one wide out, is one of four players being investigated by the university for academic violations. With Notre Dame’s investigation still ongoing and the NCAA likely to launch an investigation of its own, Daniels’ future, along with other players, is in question. This has nothing to do with statistics or trends but investigations can have negative effects on a team when playing even if no one is suspended.
The Irish also have questions on the defensive side with five starters gone including linebackers Dan Fox and Prince Shembo, and corner Bennett Jackson. Fox, Shembo and Jackson all made key plays in the game against ASU last season.
With a potential distraction caused by the academic investigation combined with both sides needing to be rebuilt, it’s entirely possible, and likely, that Notre Dame will arrive in Tempe unranked.
Prediction: This game will likely start close, but Notre Dame will make too many mistakes and possibly be missing players due to suspension.
ASU wins 31-21
Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, Nov. 15, Time TBD
Reser Stadium Corvallis, Ore.
This game is going to come down to which quarterback plays best. Last season in Tempe, Taylor Kelly threw two interceptions and Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion threw four in a 30-17 ASU victory. The Beavers lost 1,700-yard receiver Brandin Cooks. However, Richard Mullaney, the number two receiver last season, senior tight end Connor Hamlett, and running backs Terron Ward and Storm Woods all return to the Beavers offense.
Mannion, who passed for over 4,600 yards in 2013 and is considered by some to be the best quarterback prospect in next year’s NFL draft. He could have a big day against ASU’s defense. Kelly will need to get the offense going early against a Beaver defense that returns its top six players. If the Sun Devils fall behind early, the Beavers could run out the clock with the running game and pull off the upset.
Prediction: Corvallis is very underrated in how difficult it is for opponents to play there. Undefeated teams have walked into Reser Stadium and fallen behind double digits in the blink of an eye, even when the Beavers are not any good. This year, the Beavers are good and ASU is in store for a big letdown after the victory against Notre Dame.
Oregon State wins 28-17.
Washington State Cougars
Saturday, Nov. 22, Time TBD
Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Ariz.
Last season, Washington State rushed the ball 11 times for two yards against the Sun Devils. Connor Halliday threw 54 passes, completing 29 for 300 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. More of the same can be expected from Mike Leach’s team this season despite the loss of top receiver Gabe Marks.
The question for the Cougars comes on defense. Last season Taylor Kelly torched the Cougars for 341 total yards and 7 total touchdowns in a 55-21 win. The Cougars have experience in the front eight but the secondary is completely inexperienced. Of the 22 players listed on the Cougars’ roster at defensive back, four are upperclassmen.
Prediction: Washington State throws the ball 70 times but it does not matter because Taylor Kelly has a big day against the Cougars’ secondary.
ASU wins 51-24.
Arizona Wildcats
Friday, Nov. 28, 4:30 p.m.
Arizona Stadium Tucson, Ariz.
Quarterback B.J. Denker and running back Ka’Deem Carey are both gone, taking with them over 2,000 of the Wildcats’ 3400+ rushing yards last season. The quarterback position is still a mystery as head coach Rich Rodriguez has yet to name a starter. This is Rodriguez’s third year in Tucson and it is a critical one. The Wildcats have gone 8-5 back-to-back years which is ok, but consecutive losses to in-state rival ASU, cannot be good for him.
Arizona State is sure to rally around senior quarterback Taylor Kelly who will be playing his final regular season game. In two career games against the Wildcats, Kelly has put up 533 total yards and two touchdowns. The Sun Devils also may still be playing for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game. This is highly unlikely, but with how competitive the Pac-12 will be this year, it is a possibility.
Prediction: Todd Graham has Rodriguez figured out and the constant change at quarterback for the Wildcats has not helped. Kelly has a big game in his final regular season appearance.
ASU wins 38-17
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Final prediction: The Sun Devils finish 8-4, and third in the Pac-12 south. It’s not the record fans are hoping for or expecting but considering how good the Pac-12 is this season and the questions about the Sun Devil defense, it’s the most likely.
