ASU Football: Bowl game projection for Sun Devils remains a mystery

(Photo: Alli Cline/WCSN)

Though nothing could ever alleviate the devastation of a Territorial Cup loss, the result of last night’s Pac-12 Championship was probably as close as it’s going to get for Sun Devil fans.

Sure, it may indicate that the 2014 Arizona State football team was a few tiers below the nation’s elite—if Arizona was humiliated by Oregon by 38 points, an ASU team that lost to Arizona would have surely fared even worse. At the same time, no Sun Devil fan would ever object to seeing the Wildcats humiliated in front of a national audience.

Yet as the college football season winds down and sights start to be turned toward bowl games, the unfortunate reality for the Sun Devils is that Arizona’s loss complicates their bowl projection forecast, and likely knocks them down in the bowl selection pecking order.

The common sentiment was that if Arizona could keep the game competitive against Oregon last night, it would be a lock for one of the New Year’s bowls—presumably the Fiesta Bowl.

With Oregon in the College Football Playoff and Arizona (hypothetically) in the Fiesta Bowl (the top-ranked Pac-12 bowl), the remaining Pac-12 bowl games in order of selection were as follows:

2. Alamo Bowl

3. Holiday Bowl

4. Foster Farms Bowl

5. Sun Bowl

6. Las Vegas Bowl

7. Cactus Bowl

ASU, UCLA and USC are all essentially considered tied in the eyes of the bowl selection committee since all three finished 6-3 in conference play.

Though head-to-head results and overall records are non-binding (there is not a mandate for selecting a team that has a better head-to-head record), since UCLA boasts convincing wins over both ASU and USC, it would have been surprising to see the Bruins end up anywhere other than the Alamo Bowl before last night.

With the Holiday Bowl next on the selection docket, ASU perhaps has the stronger resume—especially since it beat USC. With that being said, head-to-head wins aren’t a decisive factor, and the selection committee may have reasoned that since ASU appeared in the Holiday Bowl in 2013, USC will generate more revenue in 2014.

The same rationale could then be applied to the No. 4 Pac-12 Bowl, the Foster Farms Bowl, which is played at Levis Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Though ASU has the better ranking, the better overall record and the head-to-head win, it is likely that the selection committee views Stanford as the more profitable option, given the proximity of its fan base to the site of the game.

Thus, due to some poor luck, ASU looked destined for the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.

Remember, these projections were all before last night.

The Wildcats mustering only 225 yards of total offense and relinquishing 627 to the opposing offense doesn’t really meet the criteria of a competitive game, so the impending question is: How far will Arizona drop in the rankings and how does its subsequent drop impact ASU’s bowl projection?

The College Football Playoff takes the nation’s top-four teams, while the four other New Year’s Day bowls take the best-ranked remaining teams. Since one spot is reserved for the highest-ranked Group of Five (American, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt or MAC) champion, the threshold for Arizona keeping its Fiesta Bowl hopes alive (and thus, ASU keeping its Sun Bowl hopes alive) is a ranking of 11 or better for the Wildcats.

The fate of both teams will hinge on what happens in the remainder of today’s games, and both will be rooting for the teams ranked ahead of No. 7 Arizona (No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Florida State, No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor) to wallop their opponents (No. 16 Missouri, No. 11 Georgia Tech, No.  13 Wisconsin and No. 9 Kansas State, respectively). This would prevent teams from surpassing Arizona and knocking it outside of the nation’s top-11.

Arizona dropping out of the top-11 would push it out of contention for the Fiesta Bowl, and likely slot the Wildcats in the Alamo Bowl instead.

This, in turn, would have a rippling effect on the other Pac-12 teams, as UCLA would presumably be downgraded to the Holiday Bowl. Since the Foster Farms Bowl has essentially already pledged its allegiance to Stanford, it remains to be seen if ASU or USC would get the nod in the Sun Bowl, the fifth-ranked Pac-12 bowl game. Remember, USC was perhaps the better Holiday Bowl candidate (before Arizona lost) solely because ASU received an invitation last year. The same case cannot be made for USC in the Sun Bowl. Still, USC ended the season with a 49-14 drubbing of Notre Dame, while ASU looked inept against Arizona.

The team that is not selected for the Sun Bowl will likely then be placed in the Las Vegas Bowl, the sixth-ranked Pac-12 bowl game.

Much remains to be determined, of course, and many of the above-mentioned games do not start until Saturday evening. But if there is one aspect of clarity, it’s that Arizona getting creamed by Oregon did not do ASU any favors in receiving a higher-profile bowl game.

Follow Jacob Garcia on Twitter @Jake_M_Garcia or connect with him on LinkedIn.

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