(Photo: Dominic Cotroneo/WCSN)
Following Arizona State’s series-ending 2-1 win over UCLA on Sunday, for the first time all year, head coach Tracy Smith was asked how he feels about his team’s Regional-hosting chances.
Not only was his response interesting, but it provides the perfect lede for a bigger-picture article.
“I would think. We got to play well, no doubt. No one’s going to give us anything, but we’ve played a very tough schedule. I know a loss is a loss. But even if the committee delves into it a little bit more, you’re going to see a 17-inning loss to a team that has it. We’ll worry about Tuesday and trying to win that one and then come back and play well on the weekend. We’ll let other people decide, but yeah I realistically think (so) based on our strength of schedule.”
A total of 64 teams make the NCAA college baseball tournament, as it features 31 conference champions and 33 at-large bids. Since the Pac-12 doesn’t have a conference tournament to determine its champion (for reasons that have to do with haughtiness about conference superiority), No. 3 UCLA (18-6 in conference play) and its current three-game lead over ASU, USC and Cal (all 15-9) obviously has the inside track on an automatic-qualifying bid and a National Seed.
Eight National Seeds are awarded to what the committee deems the top eight teams, and each of those teams is guaranteed to host a Super Regional if they advance past the four-team double-elimination Regional round.
At one point, ASU was in definite contention for a National Seed, but after losing two consecutive Pac-12 series—one on the road against Cal and one at home against UCLA—it has effectively played itself out of that race.
The question now is whether or not ASU has stayed afloat long enough to host a Regional.
There are 16 Regional brackets, and while the eight National Seeds are Regional hosts, eight more hosting spots are up for grabs. There is a caveat that would allow ASU to play Regional games at home without being the top seed in that Regional—a reason that centers on Phoenix Muni, the former Spring Training home of the Oakland A’s, being a significant upgrade in terms of possible revenue and overall fan experience compared to Cesar Uyesaka Stadium at UC Santa Barbara—but the task at hand for ASU is really to be deemed a top-16 team by the committee.
But some reports stymie the notion for Phoenix Muni to host the Guachos regional with UCSB inquiring about using California League ballparks from the Minors.
It’s difficult to forecast the committee’s perception of a baseball team, especially when there’s eight games left to be played, but we’ll get a head start on the selection process and take a look at the best predictors—rankings across major polls, body of work, strength of schedule and the availability of future quality wins.
Sitting at 30-17, ASU’s series loss to UCLA dropped it six spots in the D1Baseball.com rankings to No. 17, five spots in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll to No. 18, seven spots in the Baseball America Poll to No. 16 and two spots in the Collegiate Baseball Poll to No. 12 (arranged in the order of perceived prestige of each of these polls).
These rankings are murky, and the only certainty it looks like they provide is that ASU is on the bubble—a detail that makes every one of ASU’s next eight games vitally important.
If it can right the ship from an ugly 5-7 mark in its last 12 games, ASU’s remaining schedule may be its biggest opportunity to cement a stake as a Regional host.
Featuring potential confidence-building and stat-padding contests against New Mexico (Tuesday at 2 pm), Washington State (a three-game weekend series) and Abilene Christian (the following Tuesday) all at home, ASU’s schedule then concludes with an all-important, RPI-enhancing three-game road series against USC.
Winning both midweek games and taking two of three from conference opponents in Washington State and USC—certainly reasonable, though by no means a cake walk—would likely do the trick, as a 36-19 record, a second place finish in the treacherous Pac-12 and a strong finish is indeed a prestigious resume.
That’s the optimistic outlook. Naturally, there’s a negative outlook as well.
Every Wednesday, D1Baseball.com releases an NCAA Tournament Stock Report, and according to last week’s analysis, other teams entrenched in that same bubble for the final eight Regional-hosting spots were Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic, Iowa, USC, College of Charleston, North Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas and Houston.
And looking at the RPI rankings—a measure that ranks teams according to wins and losses against its strength of schedule—ASU ranks third-to-last amongst that group and potentially out of the Regional-hosting picture.
So, what do we take away and what weights do we assign to all these different forecasts and projections in regards to ASU’s Regional-hosting chances?
Well for one, Tracy Smith was pretty accurate in his assessment of his team’s body of work and strength of schedule, as only Oklahoma State (10) and Auburn (5) top ASU’s 11th-toughest strength of schedule of the bubble teams.
With that being said, loading up on tough games only goes so far when a team doesn’t excel in those tough games, and ASU’s 4-5 record against the RPI top-25 and 3-3 mark against the RPI 26-50 isn’t that inspiring.
Long story, boiled down into a few sentences: If the Regional hosts were decided today, the committee would have to weigh the resumes of teams like Florida Atlantic and College of Charleston, which have excelled against inferior competition for a combined 35-1 record against the RPI below-150, and a team like ASU, a good team that has grinded its way to a plus-28 run differential against great teams.
Luckily for all involved, Regional hosts aren’t decided today.
The main takeaway is that ASU’s wiggle room is dwindling, but nevertheless still remains in control of its Regional-hosting destiny thanks to a favorable season-ending schedule.
Follow Jacob Garcia on Twitter @Jake_M_Garcia or connect with him on LinkedIn.
