2015-16 Pac-12 Women’s Basketball preview: The top half

(Photo: Dominic Cotroneo/WCSN)

 

The 2015-16 season could represent a power shift in favor of Oregon State, but Stanford is never out of contention so long as the program is in existence. A handful of teams near the middle of the conference might have something to say toward the end of the season, and the Pac-12 season has every reason to have a bounty of competitive games when teams in this portion of the conference are involved. Here are previews for Nos. 1-6, according to the preseason poll.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 1 Oregon State (27-5, 16-2 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Beavers boast an experienced roster, returning four starters, including the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Ruth Hamblin. Returning guards Sydney Wiese and Jamie Weisner will be huge factors for the success of this OSU offense. The only major loss for OSU is Ali Gibson, who started all 32 games. The Beavers’ freshman class consists of Tarea Green, Taylor Kalmer and five-star recruit Katie McWilliams.

Outlook: OSU obviously experienced a great amount of success last season having won the Pac-12 regular season championship but crumbled at the end of the season. The Beavers lost three out of their last five games, including early exits in both the Pac-12 tournament and in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

Regardless, OSU returns it’s three major stars and has a very impressive group of freshmen on the roster, so a finish near the top of the conference seems imminent. In fact, the Beavers were picked by the Pac-12 coaches to win the 2015-16 regular season title.

Key stat: 3.81 – That’s the number of blocks 6-foot-6 center Ruth Hamblin had per game last season. If Hamblin can maintain or improve upon that number, Oregon State’s defense could be one of the best in the nation.

Best-case: Ruth Hamblin garners National Defensive Player of the Year honors while Jamie Weisner and Sydney Wiese become the best backcourt in the conference. The Beavers go undefeated in conference play and win the Pac-12 tournament championship.

Worst-case: With this much talent and experience, it’s hard to envision OSU falling anywhere below fourth in the conference. Hamblin isn’t enough to keep teams from scoring; the Beavers drop five conference games before a first round exit in the Pac-12 tournament.

Bold Prediction: Despite preseason hype, the Beavers manage only to take third place in the Pac-12.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 2 Stanford (26-10, 13-5 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: Stanford has nine returning players on its roster and three starters from a team that made its eighth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance last year, but the seniors they did lose were major contributors. Amber Orrange will be especially tough to replace, but junior guard Lili Thompson looks to take over the offense. That team came in the third in the regular season conference rankings, but managed to take the Pac-12 Tournament title. The Cardinal’s 2015 recruiting class consists of Shannon Coffee, Alexa Romano, Alanna Smith, and five-star prospect Marta Sniezek, who was rated as the 38^th best recruit in the nation by ESPN HoopGurlz.

Outlook: Losing seniors Amber Orrange, Bonnie Samuelson, Taylor Greenfield and Erica Payne is difficult to overcome, but the Cardinal have a deep pool of returners with a lot of experience to help make up for it as well as a talented class of freshmen that will likely see playing time pretty early in the season.

Stanford was picked to finish second in the Pac-12 behind Oregon State by the coaches, which snaps a 15-year streak of being picked to win the conference. As always, head coach Tara VanDerveer will field a competitive team that will look to finish atop the rankings by the season’s end.

Key Stat: 14-3 – Maples Pavilion, Stanford’s home court and consistently one of the toughest places for opposing teams to find a win, looked a little more vulnerable last season. While 14-3 isn’t exactly a bad mark, the Cardinal had gone 29-2 on their home floor over the previous two seasons, so it was a bit of a step down. Stanford will need to make sure not to let any games slip away at home if it wants to finish atop the conference.

Best-case: Lili Thompson comes on as the leader of this team, Kaylee Johnson and Erica McCall become the most dominant frontcourt in the conference, and Stanford wins both the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles.

Worst-case: Without leading scorer Amber Orrange, the Cardinal struggle to find an identity on offense, and it is one more year before they can really put everything together. Stanford finishes fifth in the conference.

Bold Prediction: Lili Thompson steps up in Orrange’s absence, scoring around 15 points per game and drawing Pac-12 Player of the Year consideration. Stanford finishes in the top three of the conference.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 3 Arizona State: (29-6, 15-3 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Sun Devils look to be in relatively good shape going into the 2015-16 season as they return the majority of the roster that made it all the way to the Sweet 16 last season. The biggest lost is that of Promise Amukamara, who graduated. She started every game for the Sun Devils, finishing third in points per game and was in contention for the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. She’ll likely be replaced by a combination of her younger sister Peace Amukamara and senior Arnecia Hawkins. Additionally, class of 2014 players Ayanna Edwards and Nicole Iademarco will no longer be with the team. It was announced that Edwards, who played in 23 games last season, would be leaving the team after being granted a medical exemption for undisclosed personal reasons, while Iademarco transferred to Rice.

Outlook: Coming off one of the most successful seasons in program history, the sky is the limit for this ASU team. The Sun Devils return four starters and four other players who saw significant time last season, so chemistry should come easy. Promise Amukamara leaves some pretty big shoes to fill, but with time the Sun Devils should be able to overcome it.

Really, the only difference between this season’s team and the 2014-15 squad is that this year, nobody will be underestimating them.

Key Stat: 82 percent — That’s the percentage of ASU’s scoring that returns to this year’s team, including the team’s two leading scorers Katie Hempen and Sophie Brunner. This team prides itself on its defense, consistently shutting opposing teams down, so finding a way to put up points will be key to ASU’s success.

Best-case: The team transitions flawlessly into life without Promise Amukamara, the 2015 recruiting class performs well and provides great depth, and Katie Hempen comes on as one of the top scorers in the Pac-12, allowing the Sun Devils to finish first in the conference.

Worst-case: Experience doesn’t prove to be quite as big of a factor as everyone thought, and the Sun Devils experience some regression. The freshmen struggle to transition to the speed of Pac-12 basketball and the loss of Promise Amukamara takes a toll on ASU’s defense. The Sun Devils finish near the middle of the conference.

Bold Prediction: Katie Hempen and Sophie Brunner both average near 17 points per game and the Sun Devils boast the top scoring defense in the conference, leading them to a regular season conference title and a Pac-12 tournament title.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 4 Cal (24-10, 13-5 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: Cal will be one of the youngest and most inexperienced teams in the conference after losing its top three scorers from last season. Inevitably, Brittany Boyd and Reshanda Gray, two of the top players in the country last year, graduated and were drafted into the WNBA, but the dismissal of Mercedes Jefflo from the team was a surprise. Cal only has two upperclassmen on the roster, so the Golden Bears will have to lean on their stacked recruiting class, which was ranked No. 8 in the nation. The stars of that recruiting class are two five-star recruits, Kristine Anigwe, the No. 8 overall recruit in the nation, and Chen Yue, a 6-foot-7 center from China.

Outlook: The Golden Bears had a strong team last year but ended the season with a heartbreaking, three-point loss to Texas in the second round of the NCAA tournament. After losing that much talent, it’s hard to see how they can be nearly as competitive. Mikayla Cowling will need to assert herself as a leader immediately.

The preseason coach’s ranking of fourth in the conference seems a bit high, as Cal seems more likely to finish closer to the middle of the Pac-12 come season’s end.

Key Stat: 44.2 percent — Cal had the second-best field goal percentage in the conference last season, largely in part to Brittany Boyd, Reshanda Gray and Mercedes Jefflo, who are no longer with the team. If the Golden Bears want to be competitive in a deep Pac-12 conference this season, they’ll have to try to emulate their offensive efficiency from last season.

Best-case: The young players assimilate to Pac-12 basketball and perform at a high level. Cowling becomes one of the top players in the Pac-12. Courtney Range and KC Waters, the only upperclassmen on the roster, step up as leaders and Cal finishes fourth in the conference.

Worst-case: The Golden Bears’ inexperience catches up to them and they cannot find any cohesiveness on the offensive side of the ball, causing them to go 9-9 in conference play and finish eighth in the Pac-12.

Bold Prediction: Cal doesn’t finish fourth in the Pac-12 as it has been predicted to, but instead experience a rebuilding year. The Golden Bears finish seventh in the conference and miss out on the NCAA tournament.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 5 UCLA (19-18, 8-10 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: As one of the youngest teams in the conference last season, the Bruins experienced some growing pains early but managed to finish the season with six straight wins and the WNIT title. UCLA returns most of its key contributors, and the top returners are senior Nirra Fields and Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Jordin Canada. Of UCLA’s recruiting class, freshman guard Kennedy Burke looks primed to be the biggest contributor. ESPN HoopGurlz ranks Burke as the No. 15 overall recruit in the nation.

Outlook: With a year of experience under their belts, UCLA’s talented young players have the potential to make the Bruins a real contender this season. Jordin Canada has proven to be one of the most dynamic individual players in the conference, and Nirra Fields will help provide leadership and a steady scoring presence. Overall, UCLA has plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this season.

Key Stat: 12.19 – That’s the number of assists per game that UCLA had in the 2014-15 season, a number that head coach Cori Close has said she wants to improve upon this season. In their exhibition victory over Vanguard, the Bruins tallied only 17 assists on 113 points scored, roughly 30 percent of their total scoring. They’ll need to increase their assist numbers to prosper in the Pac-12.

Best-case: The older players like Jordin Canada and Nirra Fields are going to play well, so the success of this team boils down to the freshmen. If UCLA’s younger players are able to perform to their capability and assert themselves in the rotation, this team has a chance to finish as high as third in the Pac-12 and make an appearance in the NCAA tournament.

Worst-case: UCLA is unable to compete with the Pac-12’s elite teams like Oregon State, ASU and Stanford, and fall to the middle of the conference. The Bruins make a second consecutive appearance in the WNIT.

Bold Prediction: The Bruins only finish fourth in the regular season, but rally to make an appearance in the Pac-12 tournament championship, where they fall to ASU.

________________________________________________________________________________________

No. 6 Washington (23-10, 11-7 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: Washington experienced some success last season, but saw its postseason aspirations cut short after being upset in the first round by Miami (Fla). Finding a way to replace Jazmine Davis, the Huskies’ all-time leading scorer, and Aminah Williams, their all-time leading rebounder, will be tough. Fortunately, they return one of the most dynamic scorers in Pac-12 history in Kelsey Plum, as well as two other starters in Talia Walton and Brianna Ruiz. The team’s lone freshman Deja Strother, a 6-foot-5 center, will look to make an impact immediately.

Outlook: UW is picked to finish sixth in the conference by the Pac-12 coaches, and taking into consideration the players that remain on their roster, that position seems about accurate. Plum is the obvious leader of this team and will run one of the better offenses in the conference, but the Huskies defense could hinder their ability to compete in the Pac-12. A middle of the conference finish is most likely.

Key Stat: 75 points per game – Led by Plum, the Huskies boasted the top scoring offense in the conference last season. Offense is the key to this team’s success and without Davis on the roster, there’s a major gap that will need to be addressed if UW hopes to match its offensive productivity from a season ago.

Best-case: The Huskies manage to remain the top scoring offense in the conference and have moderate success on defense, allowing them to climb to fourth in the Pac-12 and make another appearance in the NCAA tournament.

Worst-case: UW’s offense can’t produce at the same level as a season ago and struggle on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies go 7-11 in conference play, finishing eighth in the Pac-12 and missing out on the postseason entirely.

Bold Prediction: Kelsey Plum averages 25 points per game, notching her the 2015-16 Pac-12 Player of the Year award.

Use Facebook to Comment on this Post