(Photo: Dominic Cotroneo/WCSN)
With the start of the women’s basketball season just a week away, we take an in-depth look at how the teams in the Pac-12 stack up. For the first time in 15 years, Stanford was not selected to finish first in the league by the coaches. Instead it was Oregon State. In this article, we will focus on the teams slated to finish 12-7.
No. 12 University of Arizona
Offseason: Getting older and gaining experience was the most important thing for the University of Arizona Wildcats this past offseason. They’re coming off of an anything but impressive 10-20 record last season with an incredibly young team. With more experience under their belt the Wildcats will look to improve upon last season’s record.
Outlook: This Arizona squad will return to the court with a much stronger sense of identity. Last year’s team was injury ridden not allowing the team to gain a sense of its playing style. This is the first time in a few years that Arizona is coming into a season with all of its of its players listed as healthy. This gives the young Wildcats the opportunity to prove themselves and to show who they are as a team.
Key Stat: .69 assist to turnover ratio- Arizona came in 11th out of 12 teams in the assist to turnover margin. In order to have a chance win those tough games against tough conference opponents such as Oregon State and Stanford, Arizona is going to have to make sure to limit its turnovers.
Best-case: Junior forward LaBrittany Jones will be returning for the Wildcats after averaging nine points per game, and leading her team in field goal percentage at just over 42 percent. Her experience will greatly benefit this team. It may not be a break out season for Arizona, but with such a young team this will provide a strong chance for the Wildcats to make a strong run in the 2016-17 season.
Worst-case: Last year’s team went 10-20, so the team does not have much to lose. With such a young squad the only way for this team to go is up.
Bold prediction: While the Wildcats are projected to finish last in Pac-12 play they should not be over looked. They have gained experience and become stronger this offseason. This team will upset Arizona State in Tempe, they will be looking for a statement win and this game presents the perfect opportunity.
No. 11 Utah
Offseason: With new head coach Lynne Roberts in town things are still unsettled in Salt Lake City. Last year the team finished last in the Pac-12 with a 3-15 record. Roberts comes in to this season with only six players who have significant playing experience, and those players are faced with the challenge of learning Roberts’ new system.
Outlook: Roberts had the summer to implement her new system, which includes a much quicker up-tempo offense than Utah is used to running. She spent most of the summer getting her team the proper conditioning to be able to run her high-powered offense. This Utah team is going to look to put up a lot of points per game.
Key Stat: 0-11 The Utah squad did not win a single game on the road last year. This is a crucial stat that the team is going to have to turn around if they want to improve at all this coming season. They are going to have to find a way to make themselves comfortable on the road.
Best Case: The Utes have almost nowhere to go but up. The team has a lot of learning to do. Taryn Wicijowski, who led the team last year in scoring, is going to be very important, especially in their new offensive system. If she looks strong this season Utah has a decent chance to improve to at least .500.
Worst Case: The Utes may end up exactly where they were at the end of last season. With a new coach, players and system, there may be too many things going on with this team for them to seriously get the dice rolling to be a serious contender in the Pac-12.
Bold Prediction: This Utah squad may finish with an even worse record than it had last year, but I believe as players become more comfortable with this system you may see Utah dropping around 70 points per game. There are just too many puzzle pieces that have not been placed together for this team to have a successful season.
No. 10 Washington State
Offseason: The Cougars are coming off of a season in which they finished 17-15, but are bringing in one of their best recruiting classes to date. Borislava Hristova was ranked as the top international recruit in her class by NetScouts Basketball. This team is returning two starters and will be led by four seniors.
Outlook: With nine underclassman this team is going to rely heavily on its four seniors. They only return two starters so the seniors on the court will look to try to balance the heaps of youth this team has with their experience.
Key stat: 7.5 –Forward Mariah Cooks is going into her senior year, and in her junior averaged just over seven points per game. However, this season her offensive talents will be put on display as she will be looked to to make sure that the Cougars can effectively run their offense.
Best case: A successful season in the eyes of this young Washington State team should be to make a third straight postseason berth, which would be the most in the school’s history.
Worst case: All this youth might prove to be too much for the Cougars. While this will be good for the team a year or two down the road, it may cause more bad than good this year as each player tries to find their role on the team.
Bold prediction: Washington State may have to take a step back this year before it can take a few steps forward in seasons to come. The Cougars will not crack a .500 record this season. There is too much inexperience on this team to have a breakout year.
No. 9 Colorado
Offseason: Colorado lost three seniors after last season, but they have four freshmen coming in to fill their shoes. This team is coming off of a losing record of 15-17. The Buffaloes are coming into this season with a focus on consistency.
The team will have to rely on the help of four new freshmen: Monica Burich, Makenzie Ellis, Kennedy Leonard, and Alexis Robinson.
Outlook: With wanting to become more constant the Buffaloes will be looking to play much better defense. Colorado’s goal this season is to be able to hold their opponents to under 50 points per game. By doing this Colorado will give Senior forward Jamee Swan a chance to do what she does best — score the ball.
Key stat: 43- With improved defense allowing more time on offense, this will give junior forward Lauren Huggins a chance to hit even more three point shots than she did last year. Last season she made 43 three pointers. Having a stronger defensive presence will result in the Buffaloes having an increased offensive presence.
Best Case: Colorado has a decent chance to improve its overall record. If these young Colorado players are able to learn quickly and adapt to a new system, the Buffaloes can improve their overall Pac -12 ranking. Best case, they finishing with a 17-15 record.
Worst Case: This young Colorado team will let their youth get to them. If all of these freshmen are not able to learn the system and improve their defensive play as a collective unit, this Colorado team will dig itself in a big hole. This will result in a worse record maybe even falling to an 11th place Pac-12 finish.
Bold prediction: I think this Colorado team aimed a bit high with its goal of keeping all opponents under 50 points. I think they may not be able to hold opponents to under 60 points. This team is just too young and has not proved its self as a cohesive unit.
No. 8 Oregon
Offseason: In Kelly Graves’ inaugural season as the Ducks head coach, they finished with a 13-17 record. However, Oregon has brought in a slew of talented freshman — three of which are on the ESPN Top 100 list. The Ducks also return three starters including All-American forward Jillian Alleyne. Oregon will have an impressive mix of youth and experience.
Outlook: Oregon has a solid combination of fresh bodies and experience has the potential to be the perfect storm for the Ducks. It’s going to come down to execution for this team given that it’s only coach Graves’ second season. The team’s focus this year will be on defense, and straying away from its run and gun style offense. This season maybe a transition year for the Ducks as they look to settle their many moving pieces.
Key stat: .404—this is the percentage the Ducks allowed their opponents to shoot last year. This is down from past seasons, however, with an even stronger defensive focus this season Oregon will look to make this percentage even lower.
Best Case: The Ducks have the opportunity for a historic season. They don’t have a tough nonconference schedule; therefore they may have a bit of a rude wakeup call when they get into Pac-12 play. The Ducks are looking for their youth and experience to play off of each other well, in order to become a team on defensive lock down.
Worst Case: With so much youth coming in at the same time, it is going to be hard for everyone to adjust to a new defensively focused system. This season could also have to potential to be a throw away season for the Ducks with so many moving pieces.
Bold Prediction: Oregon maybe a dark horse in the Pac-12 this season, and even in seasons to come. With three returning starters, a slower play style, and an implementation of a stronger defensive system, the Ducks will hold most opponents at about thirty percent shooting. Oregon is doing all the right things it needs to in order to have a very impressive season.
No. 7 USC
Offseason Report: The USC Trojans have a slew of incoming freshman this off-season, including seven newcomers. Two of the newcomers are transfers and three are international students – and Aliyah Mazyack from the ESPN Top 100 list. The Women of Troy likely took one of the biggest hits this off-season due to losing so many players.
Outlook: After scraping by with a .500 record last season, losing a lot of talent in the offseason and adding a lot of new fresh legs coming into this season, USC will rely heavily on its set of three returning guards in the backcourt. Jordan Adams, Courtney Jaco, and Brianna Barrett will help keep the team on track offensively. In particular, the team will utilize junior guard Courtney Jaco, who was a prolific three-point shooter.
Key stat: .41—Jaco single-handedly accounted for almost half of the Trojans’ three pointers last season. For their offense to run smoothly they are going to need her to be hot.
Best Case: The Trojans have a lot of raw talent coming in. This could be a good thing for them. All of this influx of fresh talent gives USC a chance to improve on its 15-15 record maybe prompting them to finish in the top half of the Pac-12
Worst Case: Because of new talent, only having a few returning players, and not enough players being familiar with their system, USC might crash and burn, They might be relying too much on their three experienced players. If everything were to go against the Trojans this season, they might be looking at a tenth place Pac-12 finish.
Bold Prediction: I expect Courtney Jaco to hit at least 50 three-point shots this season. While she was the team’s second leading three point shooter last year as a sophomore, I expect her to come out firing this year. She will be considered a leader on this very young USC team.
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