2015-16 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball preview: The cellar dwellers

(Photo: Scotty Bara/WCSN)

 

This is supposed to be a top-heavy year in the Conference of Champions, and the bottom third has the most potential to be completely different than projected come tournament time.

The Pac-12 is experiencing a year of turnover all-around, losing top-tier talent from top to bottom. These four teams projected to be the base of the Pac-12 ladder are the teams that experienced the worst combination of departing, returning, and adding talent. With the exception of one, who could very well surprise everyone.

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Stanford (24-13, 9-9 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: Overall, the conference lost a lot of elite players to either graduation or the NBA Draft, and no team will take a bigger hit from departures than the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal loses their 2014-15 leading scorer Chasson Randle, their second-leading scorer Anthony Brown, and Stefan Nastic, you guessed it, their third-leading scorer. Of the 72.3 points per game Stanford scored last season, that trio was responsible for 47.8 of them. Any time you lose two-thirds of your scoring without bringing in a highly-touted freshman or two (one four-star, two three-star commits in 2015 class) to fill the void, it’ll likely set you back.

Outlook: With no returning player who averaged more than eight points per game a season ago, this will likely be a rebuilding year for Stanford. Its nonconference schedule is no walk-in-the-park playing No. 11 Villanova, SMU, Texas, and Green Bay, who was a game away from the NCAA Tournament a season ago. The only remaining player from last year’s team to have a 20-point game was junior guard Marcus Allen, but he and a fellow Allen, senior forward Rosco, will likely be the main scoring options for head coach Johnny Dawkins’ new-look squad.

Key stat: 642 points – Rosco Allen, Marcus Allen, and sophomore forward Reid Travis are the three returners who followed Randle, Brown and Nastic in the scoring column last season. As the fourth, fifth, and sixth leading scorers of the 2014-15 team, they accumulated a total of 642 points. Randle’s point total for the season? 724. Yikes.

Best-case: Stanford’s best possible scenario is where they were put in the media poll. Based on what they lost and what they are left with, battling it out for the eight spot with USC is a very realistic situation the Cardinal could find themselves in. Reid Travis will likely be a highlight to a dry offense.

Worst-case: This team is more likely to fight for the 11 spot than the eighth in the conference. You can find guys to replace rebounding, you can find guys to distribute, and you can find guys to replace scoring. If Dawkins can find players on this roster to replace three guys who were accountable for 45 percent of the team’s rebounds, 60 percent of the team’s assists, and 66 percent of the team’s total points scored, I will gladly stand corrected.

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USC (12-20, 3-15 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: USC is on the rise, and the first sign of that is its offseason. Last season’s roster had zero seniors, and only one is on the roster this year. The Trojans return their top nine scorers, and there is virtually no roster turnover at all. With some issues of eligibility throughout the season last year, a whole season with this talented roster has the potential to shake up the Pac-12.

Outlook: This season will be led by two explosive scorers in the backcourt, redshirt junior Katin Reinhardt and sophomore Jordan McLaughlin. The duo averaged 24.6 points per game combined a season ago, and with junior forward Nikola Jovanovic adding in another 12 points per game, they will have no issue with starpower in terms of scoring. Scoring is not what the issue will be for this young team but rather the defensive end. They averaged 67 points per game a season but allowed 71. Everything about this team says that it is going to get better, and while this year might not be a year to compete, the Trojans have the talent across the board to be better than expected.

Key stat: 63.4 percent from the free throw line – With the way this team should be able to light up the scoreboard in a hurry, it is going to find themselves in close games given its history of defensive lapses. A poor free throw percentage is one of the most common signs of an inexperienced team, and you can only use that excuse for so long. USC head coach Andy Enfield is going to have to do the little things in order to win the big games, and free throws is one of the biggest little things in the books.

Best-case: Like mentioned throughout the preview, USC has the talent to compete. What it’s going to come down to is if the Trojans can put it all together and execute a competitive full season in what is looking like a down year for the Pac-12. At best, USC could do what ASU did last season. Projected in the bottom-third but come on to finish in the top-five. Saying that a best case scenario would be sneaking into the tournament would be a stretch, but making it to the NIT would be a success for this not-as-young Trojans team.

Worst case: This could be just another USC year. They have talented scorers and individuals worth recognizing as legitimate players in the conference. However, in the past, that has resulted in ultimately not finding a way to complete the puzzle and be an all-around team for a full season. Enfield was hired at USC for a reason, and with it being his third season of overachieving recruiting, it’s nearing the expected time for USC to break onto the stage. Preparing for the worst but hoping for the best is one way of looking at a worst case scenario for USC.

 

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Washington (16-15, 5-13 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: USC and Washington’s offseason reports are night and day. While the Trojans see essentially the same roster from last season, the Huskies have new faces in just about every spot. UW head coach Lorenzo Romar worked his magic and brought in another phenomenal freshman class, seven freshmen to be exact. If that number of newcomers isn’t high enough, then maybe 11 total newcomers is. The only returning players on this team are two walk-ons, sophomore forward Donaven Dorsey, and last year’s second-leading scorer, senior guard Andrew Andrews. Maybe the most significant aspect of Washington’s makeover offseason was losing their star point guard Nigel Williams-Goss, who is sitting out this season because he transferred to Gonzaga.

Outlook: Clearly, with so much roster turnover, it is nearly impossible to project what this team is capable of. Andrews can light it up from anywhere on the floor, and Dorsey provided good size at the forward position that can stretch the floor with nice touch from three-point range. In terms of their newcomers, the guy to watch is freshman guard Dejounte Murray. A local product from Seattle powerhouse Rainier Beach High School, Murray averaged 25 points and 12.4 rebounds in his senior year in Washington’s most competitive high school basketball league. To top that off, the Huskies’ website says that Murray had 24 double-doubles as well as 14 triple-doubles in his senior campaign. Murray was the 49th best player in ESPN’s top 100 and will likely get the most playing time of the new faces on the roster.

Key stat: 7.4 assists per game without Williams-Goss – The point guard averaged 5.9 assists per game last season, and along with his 15.6 points per game, he was the main source for Washington’s offense. Losing Williams-Goss so unexpectedly is going to leave a lot of the point guard duties to Andrews, and they can’t afford to lose any of his scoring. Unless one of the rookies steps up, assists may be hard to come by from one consistent source for these Huskies.

Best-case: This team at this point is a mystery. Predicting how successful a strong freshman class can be is hard for the long run, but you can almost guarantee will 11 newcomers they will likely get off to a rough start no matter their best or worst scenario. A best case scenario is finishing in the middle of the pack, assuming this young talent lives up to its full potential in year one, which is not a given. A few big wins could be just enough to build enough momentum to make some noise come conference tournament time.

Worst-case: A more likely scenario, the young talent very well may not bloom this season. Maybe like USC, they will need a year of experience before being considered contenders, because there is no doubt if this team stays together for a year or two they will be legit. For now, it is looking like the 2015-16 Huskies will be the Andrew Andrews show on the offensive end, and a season-long lesson on the defensive end.

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Washington State (13-18, 7-11 in 2014-15)

Offseason report: The Cougars lost their program’s fifth all-time leading scorer in DaVonte Lacy, and realistically. he was the only guy to turn to when this team needed a bucket. Fellow seniors Dexter Kernich-Drew and Jordan Railey depart as well, who at the end of last season both came on to provide a spark in crucial game for WSU. Junior guard Ike Iroegbu and junior forward Josh Hawkinson are the only returning starters from last year’s team, but senior forward Junior Longrus as well as redshirt junior guard Que Johnson were significant contributors that are returning to second-year head coach Ernie Kent’s squad.

Outlook: When Lacy wasn’t scoring for this team last year, you could almost guarantee that the Cougars weren’t going to compete. Replacing the star status of Lacy is going to be the Cougars’ biggest challenge this season, and I think they’ll find that in Iroegbu and Hawkinson. Hawkinson was the only player in the conference last season to average a double-double, and with Lacy gone, you can only expect those numbers to improve. Iroegbu on the other hand is maybe the most athletic point guard in the conference, and he has the most experience on the team playing in every game since arriving in Pullman. With shooters like Johnson as well as senior forward Brett Boese around them, the Cougars offense is going to be much less about one player like it was a season ago.

Key stat: 76.5 point per game allowed per game last season – This was last in the Pac-12, and they lose their best shot blocker in Railey. The Cougars had the sixth-best scoring offense, but no matter what, when you’re giving up five more points than the second-worst scoring defense, it’s going to be hard to win games.

Best-case: Unfortunately, given what they lost and the lack of what they added in return, the Cougars have the lowest ceiling of all the projected basement teams. Losing a top-five scorer in the conference when you already struggled to win games is a sign of disaster, but solely based on the fact that they will have more experience than Washington and USC, they may finish 10th. Last year in Kent’s first season was a step in the right direction for this program, but until he can compete with Romar for the best talent in the state, it’s hard to give this team benefit of the doubt.

Worst-case: The worst case scenario is what they are projected to do. There are too many question marks, and unless they can improve defensively, there is no shot at competing. Not one player on the team stands out as a pure scorer, and putting too much on Hawkinson’s shoulders to score won’t put him in position to be his best.

 

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