(Photo: Zac Pacleb/WCSN)
For season previews of Nos. 1-4, click here.
For season previews of No.s 5-8, click here.
In lieu of the Pac-12 media preseason rankings being released, WCSN will be previewing every team in the conference, starting with the predicted bottom-feeders.
These four schools are the teams who lost more than the rest of the diluted and depleted Pac-12 conference. Whether their rosters boast decorated transfers who nobody has really seen or new coaches, these teams have plenty of question marks littered throughout their program.
The conference is wide-open outside of the Arizona Wildcats, who were picked to repeat as Pac-12 champions. It just turns out these teams project to need more luck than the rest of the conference to come out on top. In order, here are the predictions for No. 9-12, according to the Pac-12 media.
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– Arizona State: (21-11, 10-8 in 2013-14)
Offseason report: Of any team in the Pac-12, the Sun Devils had the most drastic roster turnover. Sixty-seven percent of the team’s scoring is no longer on coach Herb Sendek’s roster, but they brought in highly-recruited junior college transfers Gerry Blakes, Roosevelt Scott and third-team All-American Willie Atwood to remedy the losses of Jermaine Marshall, Jahii Carson and Jordan Bachynski. Additionally, Sendek brought in local products Connor MacDougall and Kodi Justice as well as Tra Holder.
Outlook: This ASU squad will not only look a lot different than the team that tied for fourth in the conference play last season, but Sendek has repeatedly said his team will play more uptempo basketball than last season. It only makes sense, given that the 7-foot-2 Bachynski is no longer patrolling the paint, but instead a bevy of versatile wing players litter the roster. The return of Shaquielle McKissic hypothetically brings some stability to Sendek’s team as well.
This team is an absolute mystery, but in a diluted Pac-12, they have as good of a chance as any other team to finish better than their predicted ranking.
Key Stat: 16-1 – ASU did a fantastic job of protecting their home court, coming up with wins over Marquette and a double-overtime win over then-No. 2 Arizona in Wells Fargo Arena. For a team that struggled on the road (4-7) and is looking to find new go-to players, holding serve at home will be critical for the Sun Devils.
Best-case: The JuCo guys translate seamlessly to Pac-12 play, most importantly Willie Atwood. Tra Holder steps into the starting point guard role and plays beyond his years suggest, and McKissic’s jump shot is as improved as people are claiming.
Worst-case: Atwood’s eye-popping stats (20.8 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game) turn out to be relegated to nothing but offensive put backs as he struggles to adjust to Division I play, McKissic’s better-looking jump shot only looks good and fails to fall through the hoop, leaving ASU without a go-to offensive option. By season’s end, ASU lacks any sort of offensive cohesion and finishes near the basement of the conference.
Bold prediction: Freshman guard Kodi Justice averages 12 points per game in conference games, knocking down timely shots for the Sun Devils who will eventually finish in the top-third of the Pac-12.
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– USC: (11-21, 2-16 in 2013-14)
Offseason report: The Trojans return just two starters from last season, but head coach Andy Enfield roped in a top-20 recruiting class, headlined by Jordan McLaughlin who was ranked No. 49 in his recruiting class by Rivals.com.
Outlook: After a bleak 2013-2014 campaign, the Trojans enter the season with sophomore forward Nikola Jovanovic as their top returning scorer (8 points per game).
However, Enfield’s solid recruiting class to help stem the tide in his second season at the helm. The Trojans also will get to finally see former UNLV Rebel Katin Reinhardt take the court after sitting out a season due to transfer rules. After finishing last in the Pac-12 last season, it’ll be hard to do any worse in this campaign.
Key Stat: 46.6 – USC enters the season without their top four scorers from a year ago. They’ll need to find their offensive stride quickly with new pieces littered across their roster, but now that Enfield has some of his recruits on the team, one would think that his team will begin to have shades of the fast-paced play that brought him recognition while coaching at Florida Gulf Coast.
Best-case: With players better suited for Enfield’s uptempo style of play, USC will get out of the gates fast despite their relative inexperience and youth. The season won’t warrant a top-tier finish in the Pac-12, but without a single senior on the roster, Enfield’s squad is positioning themselves nicely for 2015-2016.
Worst-case: They finished last in the conference a year ago, so the only thing worst than that would be an outlandish NCAA violation for reasons yet unknown or Enfield losing his job in his second season – both highly unlikely events.
Bold prediction: The Trojans will average upwards of 90 points per game behind Reinhardt’s hot shooting and turn some heads this season. McLaughlin also plays better more quickly than people though despite his smaller frame, and finds himself receiving a handful of Pac-12 Freshman of the Year votes.
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– Washington State: (10-21, 3-15 in 2013-14)
Offseason report: The biggest change to the Cougars comes in the form of newly minted head coach Ernie Kent. After four seasons away from coaching, Kent returns in hopes of reviving a reeling Washington State program. Kent most notably took Oregon to two Elite Eight appearances during his tenure in Eugene.
Kent brings in with him a solid recruiting class consisting of four freshmen and two transfers in hopes of bringing new life into Pullman as well as replace the energetic D.J. Shelton who led the team in rebounding and was second on the team in points per game.
Outlook: It will be a year of transition for the Cougars, so expectations aren’t relatively high. Que Johnson will likely lead the Cougars in scoring, and the flashes he showed last season that could materialize into consistent production.
Key Stat: 7.55 – Wazzu was third in the Pac-12 in three-point field goals made per game, and they return three players that shot over .700 from beyond the arc.
Best-case: Que Johnson lights it up for the Cougars, providing big shots in key moments as Washington State steals a few wins in the Pac-12 and play the spoiler come tournament time. Three-point shooting is always a big part of Cinderella-type victories, and that is something Washington State proved they can do last season.
Worst-case: The transition process is a rough one under Ernie Kent as stylistic differences lead to a confusing brand of basketball in Pullman. They struggle to replace Shelton’s production for the entire season and they finish at the bottom of the Pac-12.
Bold prediction: Wazzu will lead the Pac-12 in three-point shooting. Their returning marksmen, the new recruits and Kent’s offense will end up with a bevy of shots being made beyond the arc.
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– Oregon State: (16-15, 8-10 in 2013-14)
Offseason report: Oregon State lost all but one starter from last season, junior guard Langston Morris-Walker, who is their leading returning scorer despite averaging just four points per game a year ago. The Beavers also welcome Wayne Tinkle in as their new head coach, who won the Big Sky Conference while at Montana.
OSU likely took the biggest hit in the conference as the Pac-12’s leading scorer Roberto Nelson is now playing professionally in Italy. Replacing Nelson is undoubtedly a taller task than the Beavers may be prepared to handle.
The Beavers also have the best chance for the “former NBA player in attendance” moment every night with Gary Payton II coming in from Salt Lake Community College.
Outlook: Finding the replacement for Nelson is the biggest issue facing the Beavers, but nothing on the roster promotes that will happen this season. However, sophomore center Cheikh N’diaye is a big presence in the paint, and his 7-foot frame could cause some problems for opposing teams. It’ll be a year of struggles and transition for OSU, but for a roster without a single senior, the future could provide some promise depending on how much development occurs this year.
Key Stat: 0.6 – OSU’s returning assist leader, junior forward Olaf Schaftenaar, averaged less than one assist per contest, and it’s highly unlikely that the 6-foot-10 big man will be the primary ball handler for the Beavers. OSU will need to find who their point guard will be as soon as possible before they can even dream of truly competing in the conference.
Best-case: N’diaye becomes a big problem for the Pac-12 as he develops into one of the best shot-blockers in the country, and Nelson’s departure is minimized in the strong, balanced offensive play by the Beavers. Every player on the roster shows good development by season’s end, and Tinkle begins to build momentum for next year.
Worst-case: The Beavers look completely lost on offense, N’diaye is a foul-machine and they fulfill their prediction to end up on the bottom of the conference.
Bold prediction: Gary Payton II becomes the new point guard for OSU, bringing a physical brand of play from the backcourt. He proves he’s not just “Gary Payton’s son” but instead makes a respectable name for himself.
You can reach Zac Pacleb on Twitter @ZacPacleb or via email at zacpacleb@gmail.com
